{"schema":"1.4","as_of":"2026-08-28","settlement_date":"2026-08-27","signal":{"action":"QUOTE NOW","colour":"red","reason":"Gas and power both rising week-on-week. Gas 3.2% w/w, power 3.0% w/w.","gasSignal":"PRICES RISING","powerSignal":"PRICES RISING"},"moves":{"daily":{"gas_pct":2.91,"power_pct":1.8},"weekly":{"gas_pct":3.2,"power_pct":3.01},"monthly":{"gas_pct":15.49,"power_pct":10.85}},"spot":{"gas_price":166.5,"gas_change_pct":null,"power_price":130.5,"power_change_pct":null},"reference":{"contract":"Sum-27","gas_price":109.17,"power_price":92.25,"gas_day_pct":2.991,"gas_week_pct":3.78,"gas_30d_pct":16.188,"power_day_pct":1.519,"power_week_pct":3.84,"power_30d_pct":9.275},"front_month":{"key":"sep26","label":"Sep-26","gas":{"price":166.89,"day_pct":3.646,"week_pct":3.51,"m30_pct":17.852,"trend":"rising","streak":{"dir":"up","days":1},"range_30d":{"low":128.04,"high":168.2,"position":0.967},"net_pct":17.9},"power":{"price":133.1,"day_pct":2.883,"week_pct":4.61,"m30_pct":11.455,"trend":"rising","streak":{"dir":"up","days":1},"range_30d":{"low":110.33,"high":133.1,"position":1},"net_pct":11.5}},"windows":[{"key":"sep26","label":"Sep-26","context":"In the next 1–3 months","horizon_rank":0,"is_front":true,"stance":"review","note":"Sep-26 gas and power are both at or within a whisker of the highest levels in the records we hold, having climbed 17.9% and 11.5% respectively over the month. Both contracts sit near the top of their 30-day range. Anyone renewing in the next 1–3 months is paying significantly more than they would have a month ago; if you are in this window, it is worth reviewing live options now to understand what you are locking in, rather than waiting and hoping for a dip that may not come.","gas":{"price":166.89,"day_pct":3.646,"week_pct":3.51,"m30_pct":17.852,"trend":"rising","streak":{"dir":"up","days":1},"range_30d":{"low":128.04,"high":168.2,"position":0.967},"net_pct":17.9},"power":{"price":133.1,"day_pct":2.883,"week_pct":4.61,"m30_pct":11.455,"trend":"rising","streak":{"dir":"up","days":1},"range_30d":{"low":110.33,"high":133.1,"position":1},"net_pct":11.5}}],"spotlight":{"contract":"sep26","label":"Sep-26","fuel":"gas","metric":"30d","value":17.852,"dir":"up","trend":"rising","text":"Sep-26 gas has climbed 17.9% over August and is now at the highest level in the records we hold. The move has been broad and sustained, not a spike: the contract has risen steadily through the month as geopolitical tension and supply tightness have accumulated. For anyone renewing in the next few months, this is the price they are facing now — not a temporary spike, but a new market level driven by real supply constraints."},"narrative":{"headline":"August saw gas and power climb 18% and 12% — the cheaper window has closed","summary":"Both fuels rose steadily through the month as geopolitical tension over the Strait of Hormuz tightened supply, whilst European storage lagged behind seasonal targets heading into winter. Near-dated contracts are now at their highest levels in records we hold.","verdict":"Anyone renewing in the next three months is paying significantly more than they would have at the month's start; those with longer renewal dates should review the curve now rather than wait.","trend_read":{"gas":"Gas has kept climbing throughout August, rising 17.9% over the month and now sitting near its highest recorded level. The rise has been broad across the curve, with near-dated contracts moving harder (+4.2% this week) than far-dated ones (+2.1%), reflecting concentrated pressure in the immediate months ahead.","power":"Power has followed gas upward, climbing 11.5% over the month and reaching its highest recorded level for the front month. All twelve power contracts are higher week-on-week, and the move is broad, though the near curve has moved faster than the far curve as supply tightness bites hardest in the near term."},"scenario":{"upside":"If diplomatic talks over the Strait of Hormuz break down further or military escalation resumes, prices could spike sharply. A sustained closure of the strait would remove significant LNG supply and push both gas and power materially higher, particularly in Europe where storage is already constrained.","downside":"If the Iran-Oman framework holds and shipping normalises through the strait, Qatari LNG could flow more freely into Europe. Combined with the end of the summer heatwave and cooler autumn weather reducing demand, prices could ease back — particularly in the far-dated contracts where the market is pricing in winter tightness that may not materialise if supply improves."},"drivers":[{"title":"STRAIT OF HORMUZ TENSIONS PERSIST","body":"Geopolitical tension over the Strait of Hormuz has been the dominant driver all month. The US-Iran interim ceasefire expired on 17 August without resolution, and negotiations have stalled repeatedly. By month-end, Iran and Oman have agreed a framework for a temporary navigational corridor, but the outlook remains uncertain. Shipping traffic through the strait has been severely constrained, delaying Qatari LNG deliveries and keeping a risk premium in the market.","tone":"up","outlook":"mixed","soWhat":"This is the single biggest reason prices are where they are; any material shift in the diplomatic picture could move the market sharply, either way."},{"title":"EUROPEAN STORAGE AT SEASONAL LOWS","body":"European gas storage ended August at 63.3% full — among the lowest levels for this time of year in over a decade, roughly 9–10 percentage points below the five-year average. Germany sits at 50.7% and the Netherlands at 43.9%, lagging furthest behind. The EU has relaxed its mandatory fill target for 1 November from 90% to 80%, a tacit admission that winter preparation is running behind.","tone":"up","outlook":"sticks","soWhat":"Low storage heading into winter is a structural concern that will keep prices elevated until the picture improves materially — which requires sustained LNG inflows and mild weather."},{"title":"NORWEGIAN MAINTENANCE RAMPS UP","body":"Norwegian gas production has faced repeated disruptions through August, with unplanned outages at Kårstø, Gullfaks, Asgard and Troll removing capacity on multiple occasions. The Ormen Lange field remains partially offline until February 2027, removing 8.9 mcm/d of supply. Planned maintenance is now ramping up significantly in September, with offline capacity expected to climb from 25 mcm/d in late August to 70–75 mcm/d, with some days exceeding 100 mcm/d.","tone":"up","outlook":"sticks","soWhat":"Norwegian supply is a known tightness heading into autumn; this is not a surprise, but it is a material headwind that will persist for weeks."},{"title":"HEATWAVES DROVE POWER DEMAND","body":"Multiple heatwaves across the UK and continental Europe in August pushed temperatures 7–10°C above seasonal norms, driving cooling demand and gas-fired power generation. France saw nuclear capacity constrained by heat-related shutdowns and low river temperatures affecting cooling. The Danube hit record lows, forcing Romania to shut its 1.4 GW Cernavoda nuclear plant and constraining generation across Central Europe.","tone":"up","outlook":"fades","soWhat":"Heat is seasonal and temporary; relief is already arriving as August ends and temperatures normalise. This pressure will ease, but it has pushed prices higher in the near term."},{"title":"QATAR LNG FORCE MAJEURE EXTENDED","body":"QatarEnergy extended its force majeure declaration through October on 28 August, deepening concerns about near-term LNG availability. Combined with constrained traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, this removes a key source of supply relief that Europe was counting on to rebuild storage before winter.","tone":"up","outlook":"sticks","soWhat":"This is a material tightening of the supply picture and a key reason prices have climbed into month-end; it removes optionality that was supporting hopes of cheaper LNG inflows."},{"title":"WIND AND SOLAR OFFERED RELIEF","body":"Renewable generation — particularly wind — has been volatile but generally supportive through August. Strong wind output in late August eased gas-for-power demand and provided downward pressure on power prices on several occasions. Solar output has remained around seasonal norms, adding to the generation mix.","tone":"down","outlook":"mixed","soWhat":"Renewables are a natural hedge against gas price spikes, but they are weather-dependent and cannot be relied on; the market is still pricing for tight gas 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