{"schema":"1.4","as_of":"2026-08-28","settlement_date":"2026-08-27","signal":{"action":"QUOTE NOW","colour":"red","reason":"Gas and power both rising week-on-week. Gas 3.2% w/w, power 3.0% w/w.","gasSignal":"PRICES RISING","powerSignal":"PRICES RISING"},"moves":{"daily":{"gas_pct":2.91,"power_pct":1.8},"weekly":{"gas_pct":3.2,"power_pct":3.01},"monthly":{"gas_pct":15.49,"power_pct":10.85}},"spot":{"gas_price":166.5,"gas_change_pct":null,"power_price":130.5,"power_change_pct":null},"reference":{"contract":"Sum-27","gas_price":109.17,"power_price":92.25,"gas_day_pct":2.991,"gas_week_pct":3.78,"gas_30d_pct":16.188,"power_day_pct":1.519,"power_week_pct":3.84,"power_30d_pct":9.275},"front_month":{"key":"sep26","label":"Sep-26","gas":{"price":166.89,"day_pct":3.646,"week_pct":3.51,"m30_pct":17.852,"trend":"rising","streak":{"dir":"up","days":1},"range_30d":{"low":128.04,"high":168.2,"position":0.967},"net_pct":17.9},"power":{"price":133.1,"day_pct":2.883,"week_pct":4.61,"m30_pct":11.455,"trend":"rising","streak":{"dir":"up","days":1},"range_30d":{"low":110.33,"high":133.1,"position":1},"net_pct":11.5}},"windows":[{"key":"sep26","label":"Sep-26","context":"In the next 1–3 months","horizon_rank":0,"is_front":true,"stance":"review","note":"Both gas and power near-term contracts are now at their highest level in the records we hold, having climbed 17.9% and 11.5% respectively over the past month. If you renew in the next one to three months, you are looking at prices near the top of their recent range. It is worth reviewing live options now to understand what you would pay if you fixed today—not because you must act, but because the cheaper window of a month ago has closed and you should know the cost of waiting.","gas":{"price":166.89,"day_pct":3.646,"week_pct":3.51,"m30_pct":17.852,"trend":"rising","streak":{"dir":"up","days":1},"range_30d":{"low":128.04,"high":168.2,"position":0.967},"net_pct":17.9},"power":{"price":133.1,"day_pct":2.883,"week_pct":4.61,"m30_pct":11.455,"trend":"rising","streak":{"dir":"up","days":1},"range_30d":{"low":110.33,"high":133.1,"position":1},"net_pct":11.5}}],"spotlight":{"contract":"sep26","label":"Sep-26","fuel":"gas","metric":"30d","value":17.852,"dir":"up","trend":"rising","text":"September gas has climbed 17.9% over the past month and is now at the highest level in our records. The week itself fell early but snapped back hard, erasing the dip by Friday. For anyone renewing in the next few months, this is a material move upwards and means the cost of a fix today is significantly higher than it was four weeks ago."},"narrative":{"headline":"Both fuels climbed hard this week; near-term prices now at their highest in records we hold","summary":"Gas and power both rose across every contract, with near-dated prices pushing to multi-year highs. The week fell early, then snapped back sharply—a pattern that leaves anyone renewing soon facing steeper costs than a month ago.","verdict":"If you renew in the next three months, prices are now at the top of their recent range. If you're not renewing until next year, there's no rush—but watch our daily updates so you'll know if the picture shifts.","trend_read":{"gas":"Gas has kept climbing over the past month and now sits near its 30-day high. This week it fell early (touching a low on Wednesday) but snapped back hard on Thursday and Friday, finishing 3.5% higher and erasing the dip entirely.","power":"Power has also climbed steadily over the month and is now near its 30-day high. This week it moved both ways with no clean direction, but finished 4.6% higher—the near-term contract is now at the highest level we have recorded."},"scenario":{"upside":"A sustained geopolitical escalation in the Strait of Hormuz, or a further extension of Qatar's force majeure into November, could push near-term gas and power prices higher still, especially if European storage injections slow or fail to meet targets ahead of winter.","downside":"A resolution to the Strait tensions and a resumption of normal shipping, combined with a strong wind and hydro season through September, could ease prices back down—particularly if Norwegian maintenance winds down on schedule and LNG arrivals to Europe remain healthy."},"drivers":[{"title":"QATAR LNG FORCE MAJEURE EXTENDED","body":"QatarEnergy has extended its force majeure declaration through October, deepening concerns about near-term liquefied natural gas supply at a time when European storage is already historically low. This is a material constraint on the supply side heading into autumn.","tone":"down","outlook":"sticks","soWhat":"This tightens the supply picture for the next two months and supports prices across the curve, especially near-term contracts."},{"title":"NORWEGIAN MAINTENANCE BITES SUPPLY","body":"Planned maintenance at Norwegian fields began on 29 August, with unplanned outages at Troll and Asgard removing around 7 million cubic metres per day this week. Norwegian imports to the UK have eased from earlier highs, and further capacity losses are likely as the maintenance schedule progresses.","tone":"down","outlook":"sticks","soWhat":"Near-term gas prices are supported by this supply loss; relief should come as the maintenance cycle winds down in September."},{"title":"STRAIT OF HORMUZ TENSIONS EASE, THEN RETURN","body":"Early in the week, reports of a ceasefire and a temporary navigational corridor through the Strait eased prices sharply on Tuesday. By Thursday, however, geopolitical risk returned as hopes for a reopening faded and the White House confirmed no talks are happening with Iran. Brent crude and gas prices have climbed back as uncertainty persists.","tone":"up","outlook":"mixed","soWhat":"This is a headline risk that can swing prices day to day; it is not yet resolved and remains a source of volatility."},{"title":"EUROPEAN STORAGE REMAINS HISTORICALLY LOW","body":"EU storage stands at 61.68% full—roughly 9 to 10 percentage points below the five-year average for this time of year and the lowest seasonal level in records going back to 2009. Germany is at 50.71% and the Netherlands at 43.87%, both lagging well behind. The EU has relaxed its mandatory fill target for 1 November from 90% to 80%, signalling concern about the tightness ahead.","tone":"down","outlook":"sticks","soWhat":"Low storage is a structural constraint that will support prices through the autumn and into winter; it is not a temporary issue."},{"title":"FRENCH NUCLEAR OUTAGES TIGHTEN POWER","body":"French nuclear capacity remains under pressure, with outages at Cattenom 4 (extended to 15 September), Gravelines 3 and Chooz, plus a potential strike at Chinon. River levels remain below normal, constraining hydro output. These constraints are keeping French power prices elevated and supporting the broader European curve.","tone":"down","outlook":"mixed","soWhat":"French power prices are significantly higher than UK prices as a result; this regional tightness supports the wider European curve."},{"title":"WIND AND HYDRO EASING NEAR-TERM PRESSURE","body":"Wind generation has picked up and is forecast to remain above seasonal averages; hydro conditions across Central Europe have improved (notably in Hungary, where the Danube recovery allowed Paks to restart). These renewable and hydro gains are offsetting some of the gas-for-power demand that would otherwise be needed.","tone":"up","outlook":"fades","soWhat":"This is a seasonal relief that is keeping near-term power prices from rising as steeply as gas; it will fade as autumn progresses and wind and hydro 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