UK wholesale gas
& electricity prices.
The market explained.

A drone strike on a Russian condensate plant in Yamalo-Nenets briefly pushed European gas above €80.90/MWh yesterday afternoon. Prices retreated once it became clear the target was not an LNG export facility, but the incident underscores the persistent geopolitical risk underpinning the entire energy complex.

Fresh military clashes between the US and Iran have prompted shipping warnings around Gulf ports and constrained commercial transit through the Strait of Hormuz. Brent crude is holding above $100/barrel, and President Trump has signalled no de-escalation before November's midterms.

Qatari LNG remains unavailable to European buyers. Asian spot LNG is now pulling flexible Atlantic cargoes away from European markets—Bangladesh has just secured 18 cargoes from TotalEnergies—further tightening European supply.

EU storage sits at 67.12% overall, but the picture is uneven: Germany is at a historic low of 54.75%, the Netherlands at 50.39%, and the UK at just 31.31%. Germany is unlikely to hit its 70% November target on commercial terms, with the Rehden facility at only 9.2% capacity.

Wind speeds across the UK, France, Germany, and the Netherlands are bottoming out at 3–5 metres per second today and tomorrow, severely constraining wind generation. Temperatures are running 1–2°C below seasonal norms, triggering early heating demand and pushing power prices higher across the region.

French hydro reserves have dropped to 2.03 TWh, representing just 56.4% of capacity—the lowest level for this time of year since 1997. River cooling limits continue to constrain the nuclear fleet, keeping hydro generation near four-year lows.

The UK lost the 725 MW Rye House combined-cycle gas turbine to an unexpected trip on Wednesday and will remain offline until at least 12/09/2026. Pembroke is also offline, compounding the thermal deficit.