{"schema":"1.4","as_of":"2026-08-28","settlement_date":"2026-08-27","signal":{"action":"QUOTE NOW","colour":"red","reason":"Gas and power both rising week-on-week. Gas 3.2% w/w, power 3.0% w/w.","gasSignal":"PRICES RISING","powerSignal":"PRICES RISING"},"moves":{"daily":{"gas_pct":2.91,"power_pct":1.8},"weekly":{"gas_pct":3.2,"power_pct":3.01},"monthly":{"gas_pct":15.49,"power_pct":10.85}},"spot":{"gas_price":166.5,"gas_change_pct":null,"power_price":130.5,"power_change_pct":null},"reference":{"contract":"Sum-27","gas_price":109.17,"power_price":92.25,"gas_day_pct":2.991,"gas_week_pct":3.78,"gas_30d_pct":16.188,"power_day_pct":1.519,"power_week_pct":3.84,"power_30d_pct":9.275},"front_month":{"key":"sep26","label":"Sep-26","gas":{"price":166.89,"day_pct":3.646,"week_pct":3.51,"m30_pct":17.852,"trend":"rising","streak":{"dir":"up","days":1},"range_30d":{"low":128.04,"high":168.2,"position":0.967},"net_pct":17.9,"position_pct":98.5},"power":{"price":133.1,"day_pct":2.883,"week_pct":4.61,"m30_pct":11.455,"trend":"rising","streak":{"dir":"up","days":1},"range_30d":{"low":110.33,"high":133.1,"position":1},"net_pct":11.5,"position_pct":100}},"windows":[{"key":"sep26","label":"Sep-26","context":"In the next 1–3 months","horizon_rank":0,"is_front":true,"stance":"review","note":"Sep-26 gas and power are now at the highest levels in the six months we track. Both have risen 17.9% (gas) and 11.5% (power) over the month and are sitting near the top of their range. If you are renewing in the next 1–3 months, prices are now at their most expensive; review live options now to understand the cost of fixing today.","gas":{"price":166.89,"day_pct":3.646,"week_pct":3.51,"m30_pct":17.852,"trend":"rising","streak":{"dir":"up","days":1},"range_30d":{"low":128.04,"high":168.2,"position":0.967},"net_pct":17.9,"position_pct":98.5},"power":{"price":133.1,"day_pct":2.883,"week_pct":4.61,"m30_pct":11.455,"trend":"rising","streak":{"dir":"up","days":1},"range_30d":{"low":110.33,"high":133.1,"position":1},"net_pct":11.5,"position_pct":100}},{"key":"win26","label":"Win-26","context":"Into winter 2026","horizon_rank":1,"is_front":false,"stance":"review","note":"Winter 2026 gas has climbed 20.7% over the month and is now at the highest we have recorded. Power has risen 15.3% and is also near the top of its range. For anyone renewing into winter, prices have moved sharply against you; this is worth reviewing now rather than waiting for a dip that may not come.","gas":{"price":169.26,"day_pct":3.434,"week_pct":4.1,"m30_pct":20.736,"trend":"rising","streak":{"dir":"up","days":1},"range_30d":{"low":128.96,"high":169.76,"position":0.988},"net_pct":20.7},"power":{"price":137.67,"day_pct":1.692,"week_pct":3.22,"m30_pct":15.292,"trend":"rising","streak":{"dir":"up","days":2},"range_30d":{"low":112.38,"high":138.5,"position":0.968},"net_pct":15.3}},{"key":"sum27","label":"Sum-27","context":"Summer 2027","horizon_rank":2,"is_front":false,"stance":"review","note":"Summer 2027 gas and power have both climbed over the month (gas +16.2%, power +9.3%) and are now sitting near the top of their range. These contracts are less volatile than winter, but the direction is the same. Keep watching through our daily updates; no urgent action yet, but the trend is worth monitoring.","gas":{"price":109.17,"day_pct":2.991,"week_pct":3.78,"m30_pct":16.188,"trend":"rising","streak":{"dir":"up","days":2},"range_30d":{"low":86.74,"high":109.17,"position":1},"net_pct":16.2},"power":{"price":92.25,"day_pct":1.519,"week_pct":3.84,"m30_pct":9.275,"trend":"rebound","streak":{"dir":"up","days":2},"range_30d":{"low":78.72,"high":92.34,"position":0.993},"net_pct":9.3}},{"key":"cal27","label":"Cal-27","context":"A full year (2027)","horizon_rank":3,"is_front":false,"stance":"review","note":"Calendar 2027 gas and power have both risen steadily over the month (gas +16.0%, power +12.2%) and are now near the top of the range we hold. These are longer-dated contracts and typically move less sharply, but the broad upward trend is clear. Stay informed through our free daily briefings; if the market turns, you will be told.","gas":{"price":122.74,"day_pct":3.082,"week_pct":3.59,"m30_pct":16.011,"trend":"rising","streak":{"dir":"up","days":1},"range_30d":{"low":96.57,"high":122.74,"position":1},"net_pct":14.3},"power":{"price":103.77,"day_pct":1.318,"week_pct":4.57,"m30_pct":12.196,"trend":"rising","streak":{"dir":"up","days":2},"range_30d":{"low":86.8,"high":103.9,"position":0.992},"net_pct":11}},{"key":"cal28","label":"Cal-28","context":"2 years out (2028)","horizon_rank":4,"is_front":false,"stance":"review","note":null,"gas":{"price":82.84,"day_pct":1.919,"week_pct":1.63,"m30_pct":11.449,"trend":"rising","streak":{"dir":"up","days":1},"range_30d":{"low":71.82,"high":82.84,"position":1},"net_pct":8},"power":{"price":75.3,"day_pct":0.695,"week_pct":0.32,"m30_pct":5.109,"trend":"rising","streak":{"dir":"up","days":2},"range_30d":{"low":69.51,"high":75.89,"position":0.908},"net_pct":3.5}}],"spotlight":{"contract":"win26","label":"Win-26","fuel":"gas","metric":"30d","value":20.736,"dir":"up","trend":"rising","text":"Winter 2026 gas has climbed 20.7% over the past month and now sits at the highest level we have recorded since March. This is the sharpest move on the entire curve and reflects the market's acute concern about supply tightness heading into the heating season. For anyone renewing into winter 2026, the cost of waiting has been steep."},"narrative":{"headline":"Both gas and power near their highest in six months; geopolitical risk and supply tightness pushing prices up across the curve","summary":"Every gas and power contract moved higher this week. Sep-26 gas and power are now sitting at the top of the range we have held since March, and winter 2026 contracts have climbed 20%+ over the month. For anyone renewing in the next 12 months, the cheaper window that was open earlier in August has closed.","verdict":"If you are renewing Sep-26 through Cal-28, prices are now at their highest in the six months we track. Review live quotes now to understand what you would pay; waiting is unlikely to help.","trend_read":{"gas":"Gas has kept climbing over the past month and now sits near the top of the range we hold. The rise has been steady and broad across every contract from near-term through to 2029, with the pressure sharpest in the winter and near-term quarters.","power":"Power has also kept climbing over the past month and now sits near the top of the range we hold. The move is broad across the curve, though near-term contracts (Sep-26) have moved harder than far-dated ones."},"scenario":{"upside":"If the Strait of Hormuz remains closed or tensions escalate further, or if the Chinon strike extends and other French nuclear capacity is lost, European gas and power could push higher still. QatarEnergy's force majeure running through October means there is no near-term relief from liquefied natural gas, and low storage leaves little buffer.","downside":"If the US and Iran move towards talks and the Strait reopens, or if French nuclear strikes are averted and river levels recover, the geopolitical premium could fade quickly. US liquefied natural gas arriving in September could also begin to ease the continental supply picture, taking pressure off prices."},"drivers":[{"title":"GEOPOLITICAL RISK IN STRAIT OF HORMUZ","body":"Hopes for a near-term reopening of the Strait of Hormuz have faded. Yesterday's reports of a temporary navigational corridor and ceasefire framework have not held market confidence; crude oil has risen 2% overnight as the White House confirmed no active talks are happening with Iran. The market is now pricing in an extended period of uncertainty around one of the world's most critical energy chokepoints.","tone":"up","outlook":"sticks","soWhat":"Supply risk remains priced into the market; this is not a temporary headline."},{"title":"QATARENERGY EXTENDS FORCE MAJEURE TO OCTOBER","body":"QatarEnergy has extended its force majeure declaration through October, deepening concerns about liquefied natural gas availability at a time when Europe is already running low on storage heading into winter. This is a material tightening of the supply picture for the continent.","tone":"up","outlook":"sticks","soWhat":"Near-term liquefied natural gas supply is now constrained through the end of October; this will keep upward pressure on gas prices."},{"title":"NORWEGIAN MAINTENANCE REMOVES SUPPLY","body":"An unplanned outage at the Asgard field has removed around 7 million cubic metres per day from the market today. The broader maintenance schedule suggests further capacity losses are likely as September progresses, though the cycle should ease as the month advances.","tone":"up","outlook":"mixed","soWhat":"Near-term gas supply is tighter than it was; relief should come as maintenance winds down in late September."},{"title":"EUROPEAN STORAGE REMAINS HISTORICALLY LOW","body":"Storage levels across the continent are well below normal heading into winter, leaving the market acutely vulnerable to any further disruption. This is background that has been in place for weeks, but it remains the fundamental reason why the market is pricing in a risk premium.","tone":"up","outlook":"sticks","soWhat":null},{"title":"FRENCH NUCLEAR AND HYDRO UNDER PRESSURE","body":"River levels in France remain below normal, restricting hydroelectric output. A potential strike at the Chinon nuclear plant is expected to begin today, and outages continue at Gravelines 3 and Chooz. These constraints are keeping French power prices elevated and forcing greater reliance on gas-fired generation.","tone":"up","outlook":"mixed","soWhat":"French power tightness is pushing the continental price higher; relief may come if the strike is averted or river levels recover."},{"title":"STRONGER WINDS OFFERING MODEST RELIEF","body":"Stronger winds across North West Europe are adding downward pressure on power prices by reducing the need for gas-fired generation. This is a temporary seasonal factor and should not be relied upon to persist.","tone":"down","outlook":"fades","soWhat":null},{"title":"US LIQUEFIED NATURAL GAS SUPPLY RISING SOON","body":"US liquefied natural gas output is forecast to rise in September, and seven vessels are expected to arrive at Dutch terminals over the coming week. This should help ease the supply picture, though it will take time to move the needle on European storage.","tone":"down","outlook":"fades","soWhat":"This is relief on the horizon, not immediate; near-term prices will stay firm until the supply actually 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