Daily Energy Market Report & Business Rates | Smart Energy Co
Israel-Lebanon 10-day ceasefire agreed. US-Iran talks scheduled this weekend. Prices bounced 3.5% on Thursday as cooler weather approaches. Markets closed for weekend — talks outcome will drive Monday's open. Full conflict analysis →
Prices bounce ahead of weekend talks
Gas rebounded 3.5% on Thursday to 82.39p (Sum-27) and power rose 3.1% to £72.50 — the first meaningful bounce after last week's 17% fall. Cooler weather is forecast for next week and Dutch storage is critically low at 7%. US-Iran talks scheduled this weekend. Israel-Lebanon ceasefire agreed. With markets closed until Monday, the talks outcome will drive next week's direction.
Gas is broadly flat this morning after Thursday's 3.5% bounce. The 30-day trend remains comfortably down (-6.3%) but attention is shifting from diplomacy back to fundamentals. Dutch storage is critically low at just 7% — well below the five-year average for mid-April — and cooler weather next week will increase demand just as Europe needs to start rebuilding for next winter. Israel-Lebanon have agreed a 10-day ceasefire and US-Iran talks are scheduled this weekend. Monday's open will depend on what comes out of those talks.
Power has been more stubborn than gas. Sum-27 is actually up 0.4% this week despite gas falling 5.3% — weak wind forecast for next week and the 2028 removal of Carbon Price Support (which has pushed carbon prices higher) are supporting power more than gas. UK wind has averaged 12 GW this week (20% above seasonal norm) helping contain prices but this is set to change. Monday's open depends on the weekend talks.
Today's Developments
Day 48 — and after a week of one-way falls, prices have bounced. Yesterday's settlement showed gas up 3.5% to 82.39p (Sum-27) and power up 3.1% to £72.50. Today prices are broadly flat. The 30-day trend remains comfortably negative but the momentum has clearly cooled.
The bounce reflects a shift in focus. For two weeks, diplomacy and warm weather have dominated. Now fundamentals are reasserting themselves. European storage is critically low — Dutch storage is at just 7%, well below the five-year average for mid-April. And cooler weather is forecast for next week, which will increase heating demand just as Europe needs to start rebuilding storage for next winter.
On the diplomatic front, there's cautious optimism. Israel and Lebanon have reportedly agreed a 10-day ceasefire — the first diplomatic breakthrough in the wider regional situation. US-Iran talks are scheduled for this weekend to discuss ending the broader conflict. These are the most significant talks since the first ceasefire collapsed.
The weekend matters. Markets are closed until Monday. If talks go well, prices likely open lower. If they break down, expect a sharp reversal of last week's falls. This is the kind of weekend that can move a market 5–10% on Monday depending on the headlines.
A reminder on the bigger picture: gas is still down 6.3% over 30 days and 18% on May-26. The direction is firmly down but Sum-27 at 82p is still well above the 63p level seen pre-conflict. Ras Laffan stays offline for years. The floor under long-term prices isn't going away.
Gas Forward Prices
Wholesale rates energy suppliers use to price your gas contract. Your business rate will be higher.
| Contract | Price | Day | Week | 30d |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May-26 | 106.30 | +2.5% | -9.0% | -18.2% |
| Sum-27 | 82.39 | +3.5% | -5.3% | -6.3% |
| Win-27 | 82.88 | +3.2% | -4.3% | -5.2% |
| Q3-26 | 103.70 | +2.9% | -9.3% | -16.5% |
| Q4-26 | 107.29 | +2.9% | -9.0% | -14.5% |
| Q1-27 | 106.72 | +3.1% | -8.8% | — |
| Jun-26 | 104.47 | +2.4% | -9.0% | -17.0% |
Gas Price Trend
UK wholesale gas prices over the last 30 trading days. The Thursday bounce is the last point — no new settlements until Monday.
Power Forward Prices
Wholesale rates energy suppliers use to price your electricity contract. Your business rate will be higher.
| Contract | Price | Day | Week | 30d |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May-26 | 87.26 | +3.0% | -4.6% | -9.8% |
| Sum-27 | 72.50 | +3.1% | +0.4% | -1.0% |
| Win-27 | 76.46 | +2.6% | -2.3% | — |
| Q3-26 | 89.27 | +2.3% | -4.7% | -6.8% |
| Q4-26 | 92.44 | +3.7% | -0.8% | -3.7% |
| Q1-27 | 92.18 | +3.6% | -4.1% | — |
| Jun-26 | 90.24 | +2.7% | -3.7% | -5.9% |
Power Price Trend
UK wholesale electricity prices over the last 30 trading days. The Thursday bounce is visible — no new settlements until Monday.
What's Happening in the Market
Thursday's bounce broke a run of falls. Gas rose 3.5% to 82.39p (Sum-27) and power rose 3.1% to £72.50 as traders took profit and started pricing in cooler weather and low storage for next winter. Today prices are broadly flat. The weekly picture remains favourable — gas -5.3%, power +0.4%. Over 30 days gas is down 6.3%, power down 1.0%.
The shift today is that fundamentals are reasserting themselves over geopolitics. For two weeks the story was diplomacy and warm weather. Now the focus is European storage (Dutch at 7% is critically low) and cooler weather next week. These are structural concerns that don't go away even if US-Iran talks succeed.
On the diplomatic side, Israel and Lebanon have reportedly agreed a 10-day ceasefire — a modest breakthrough. And US-Iran talks are scheduled for this weekend. These are the most significant direct talks since the first ceasefire collapsed. A positive outcome would accelerate the downward trend. A breakdown would reverse it sharply.
Power has been stickier than gas this week. Weak European wind forecast for next week plus the UK's 2028 removal of Carbon Price Support (pushing carbon prices higher) are both supporting electricity more than gas. UK wind has averaged 12 GW this week — 20% above seasonal norm — which has kept a lid on prices for now.
With markets closed over the weekend, whatever comes out of the talks will drive Monday's open. This is the kind of weekend that can move markets 5–10% in either direction.
What Moved the Market
When Should I Renew?
Based on 30-day price trends. Gas and electricity can move in different directions.
Gas is comfortably down (-6.3% over 30 days) despite Thursday's bounce. Power is stickier (-1.0%) and actually up this week. Cooler weather and low storage will likely slow further gas falls. With talks over the weekend, Monday could bring a big move either way — if you're actively looking for a deal, getting quotes today to benchmark makes sense so you can move quickly on Monday.
Winter gas is down 5.2% over 30 days but Dutch storage at 7% and cooler weather ahead are real pressures on winter contracts. The storage refill challenge (29% → 80% by November) remains despite the diplomatic improvement. Worth benchmarking — good trend but fundamentals are a floor.
Cal-27 gas is down 8.4% over 30 days to 88.21p — still well below near-term rates (May-26 at 106.30p). Cal-28 essentially flat. Longer-dated contracts are pricing in gradual normalisation. The direction is strongly favourable — if you're renewing more than a year out, this is a good benchmarking window.
Big Weekend Ahead —
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Source: ICE Endex / SEFE daily report
Smart Energy Company — Independent energy broker since 2014
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