{ "schema": "1.4", "as_of": "2026-07-17", "settlement_date": "2026-07-16", "signal": { "action": "QUOTE NOW", "colour": "red", "reason": "Gas and power both rising week-on-week. Gas 7.2% w/w, power 6.5% w/w.", "gasSignal": "PRICES RISING", "powerSignal": "PRICES RISING" }, "moves": { "daily": { "gas_pct": -2.03, "power_pct": -0.76 }, "weekly": { "gas_pct": 7.19, "power_pct": 6.46 }, "monthly": { "gas_pct": 17.99, "power_pct": 13.62 } }, "spot": { "gas_price": 131.8, "gas_change_pct": null, "power_price": 124.67, "power_change_pct": null }, "reference": { "contract": "Sum-27", "gas_price": 93.15, "power_price": 82.73, "gas_day_pct": -2.102, "gas_week_pct": 8.5, "gas_30d_pct": 15.959, "power_day_pct": -1.41, "power_week_pct": 6.13, "power_30d_pct": 8.144 }, "front_month": { "key": "aug26", "label": "Aug-26", "gas": { "price": 131.98, "day_pct": -4.196, "week_pct": 9.23, "m30_pct": 31.993, "trend": "rising", "streak": { "dir": "up", "days": 4 }, "range_30d": { "low": 96.47, "high": 131.98, "position": 1 }, "net_pct": 32 }, "power": { "price": 112.5, "day_pct": -1.704, "week_pct": 8.8, "m30_pct": 24.695, "trend": "rising", "streak": { "dir": "down", "days": 1 }, "range_30d": { "low": 88, "high": 112.8, "position": 0.988 }, "net_pct": 24.7 } }, "windows": [ { "key": "aug26", "label": "Aug-26", "context": "In the next 1–3 months", "horizon_rank": 0, "is_front": true, "stance": "review", "note": "Aug-26 gas and power have both climbed 32% and 25% respectively over the month and sit near their highs. Both remain under upward pressure from geopolitical risk and supply tightness. If your renewal is in the next 1–3 months, reviewing a live quote now makes sense—you'll see what certainty costs at this elevated level.", "gas": { "price": 131.98, "day_pct": -4.196, "week_pct": 9.23, "m30_pct": 31.993, "trend": "rising", "streak": { "dir": "up", "days": 4 }, "range_30d": { "low": 96.47, "high": 131.98, "position": 1 }, "net_pct": 32 }, "power": { "price": 112.5, "day_pct": -1.704, "week_pct": 8.8, "m30_pct": 24.695, "trend": "rising", "streak": { "dir": "down", "days": 1 }, "range_30d": { "low": 88, "high": 112.8, "position": 0.988 }, "net_pct": 24.7 } }, { "key": "win26", "label": "Win-26", "context": "Into winter 2026", "horizon_rank": 1, "is_front": false, "stance": "review", "note": "Winter 2026 contracts have also risen sharply (gas +27%, power +20%) and sit near month highs. Winter demand is months away, but the market is already pricing in the storage rebuild challenge and geopolitical risk. A review is warranted if your winter contract is approaching.", "gas": { "price": 133.86, "day_pct": -3.698, "week_pct": 9.45, "m30_pct": 27.328, "trend": "rising", "streak": { "dir": "up", "days": 4 }, "range_30d": { "low": 102.03, "high": 133.86, "position": 1 }, "net_pct": 27.3 }, "power": { "price": 115.29, "day_pct": -0.27, "week_pct": 7.95, "m30_pct": 19.682, "trend": "rising", "streak": { "dir": "down", "days": 1 }, "range_30d": { "low": 94.07, "high": 115.6, "position": 0.986 }, "net_pct": 19.7 } }, { "key": "sum27", "label": "Sum-27", "context": "Next summer (2027)", "horizon_rank": 2, "is_front": false, "stance": "review", "note": "Summer 2027 has climbed 16% (gas) and 8% (power) over the month and sits near its recent peak, though the rise has been less steep than front-month. The market is pricing in some normalisation by next summer, but geopolitical and storage pressures are still visible. A review is sensible if you're renewing for summer 2027.", "gas": { "price": 93.15, "day_pct": -2.102, "week_pct": 8.5, "m30_pct": 15.959, "trend": "rebound", "streak": { "dir": "down", "days": 1 }, "range_30d": { "low": 78.53, "high": 93.97, "position": 0.947 }, "net_pct": 16 }, "power": { "price": 82.73, "day_pct": -1.41, "week_pct": 6.13, "m30_pct": 8.144, "trend": "rebound", "streak": { "dir": "down", "days": 1 }, "range_30d": { "low": 74.88, "high": 83.91, "position": 0.869 }, "net_pct": 8.1 } }, { "key": "cal27", "label": "Cal-27", "context": "A full year (2027)", "horizon_rank": 3, "is_front": false, "stance": "review", "note": "Calendar 2027 has risen 18% (gas) and 11% (power) and sits near its 30-day high. The market is building in a modest risk premium for next year, but prices are lower than nearer-term contracts—a sign that some of today's pressure is expected to fade. Still worth reviewing if your 12-month renewal is due, but there is less urgency than for nearer-term windows.", "gas": { "price": 102.39, "day_pct": -0.71, "week_pct": 8.3, "m30_pct": 18.233, "trend": "rising", "streak": { "dir": "down", "days": 1 }, "range_30d": { "low": 84.59, "high": 103.12, "position": 0.961 }, "net_pct": 18.2 }, "power": { "price": 90.13, "day_pct": -0.99, "week_pct": 6.53, "m30_pct": 11.162, "trend": "rising", "streak": { "dir": "down", "days": 1 }, "range_30d": { "low": 79.69, "high": 91.03, "position": 0.921 }, "net_pct": 11.2 } }, { "key": "cal28", "label": "Cal-28", "context": "Two years out (2028)", "horizon_rank": 4, "is_front": false, "stance": "review", "note": "Calendar 2028 has moved only modestly—up 4.4% (gas) and 4.1% (power)—and sits near its recent peak. Two years out, the market sees less of today's geopolitical and supply stress. This window is far-dated and quiet; there is no action needed yet. Keep an eye on it through our free daily updates, and we'll flag if the picture shifts.", "gas": { "price": 72.92, "day_pct": -0.91, "week_pct": 2.99, "m30_pct": 4.41, "trend": "rebound", "streak": { "dir": "down", "days": 1 }, "range_30d": { "low": 68.55, "high": 73.59, "position": 0.867 }, "net_pct": 4.4 }, "power": { "price": 70.54, "day_pct": -0.89, "week_pct": 3.36, "m30_pct": 4.118, "trend": "rising", "streak": { "dir": "down", "days": 1 }, "range_30d": { "low": 67.51, "high": 71.17, "position": 0.828 }, "net_pct": 4.1 } } ], "spotlight": { "contract": "aug26", "label": "Aug-26", "fuel": "gas", "metric": "30d", "value": 31.993, "dir": "up", "trend": "rising", "text": "Aug-26 gas has climbed 32% over the past month and now sits near its 30-day high at 131.98 p/therm. The rise is driven by Middle East geopolitical risk, tightening global LNG supply with Asian demand rising, and European storage still below normal for this time of year. This is not a temporary spike—these are pressures likely to persist through summer and into autumn." }, "narrative": { "headline": "Gas and power both near month highs; geopolitical and supply pressures building", "summary": "Aug-26 contracts have climbed steadily over the past month and sit near their peaks. Middle East tensions, tightening LNG globally, and weak European nuclear are all pushing upward. All five renewal windows carry a review stance.", "verdict": "Both fuels have risen sharply and sit high in their recent range. If your renewal is due in the next few months, it's worth reviewing live quotes now—not because prices will spike further, but because they're elevated and you'll want to see what a fix looks like at this level.", "trend_read": { "gas": "Gas has kept climbing steadily over the past month, up 32% overall, and today sits near its 30-day high. A brief dip this morning (-4.2% on the day) has not broken the upward trend.", "power": "Power has also risen steadily over the month, up 25% overall, and is near its 30-day peak. Today's small decline (-1.7%) does not change the underlying direction." }, "scenario": { "upside": "If Middle East tensions escalate further or LNG export flows are disrupted, European storage rebuild could fall behind schedule, forcing buyers to bid more aggressively for cargoes and pushing prices higher still.", "downside": "If European heat moderates, wind output recovers, and geopolitical tensions ease, the upward pressure could fade and prices may ease back from these month-high levels over the coming weeks." }, "drivers": [ { "title": "MIDDLE EAST GEOPOLITICAL TENSION", "body": "US military strikes on Iran and damage to civilian infrastructure have intensified overnight, adding a fresh risk premium to LNG export security through the Strait of Hormuz. Peace negotiations appear to have stalled.", "tone": "up", "outlook": "sticks", "soWhat": "This risk is unlikely to fade quickly; it will likely remain priced into the market for weeks." }, { "title": "GLOBAL LNG SUPPLY TIGHTENING", "body": "Asian demand is strengthening, which is pulling cargoes away from Europe and intensifying competition. Global spare LNG capacity is limited, so Europe will need to offer higher prices to secure winter volumes.", "tone": "up", "outlook": "sticks", "soWhat": "This is a seasonal structural pressure that will persist until winter demand eases; expect it to underpin prices through autumn." }, { "title": "EUROPEAN STORAGE BELOW NORMAL", "body": "Current inventory levels remain below historical average for mid-July, meaning substantial volumes still need to be injected before winter. Any disruption to LNG arrivals or slower injection rates would tighten the market further.", "tone": "up", "outlook": "sticks", "soWhat": "Storage rebuild is a multi-month process; this pressure will remain until levels normalise in late autumn." }, { "title": "FRENCH NUCLEAR CONSTRAINED", "body": "High river temperatures are limiting reactor output due to environmental cooling-water discharge limits. Reduced nuclear generation increases Europe's reliance on gas-fired power.", "tone": "up", "outlook": "mixed", "soWhat": "River temperatures may ease if weather cools, but this constraint is likely to persist through summer and into early autumn." }, { "title": "ABOVE-AVERAGE EUROPEAN HEAT", "body": "Warmer temperatures are lifting cooling demand and reducing wind generation, forcing greater reliance on gas-fired power stations and tightening supply margins.", "tone": "up", "outlook": "fades", "soWhat": "Seasonal heat is temporary; relief may come once summer warmth moderates, though that is still weeks away." } ] }, "contracts": [ { "key": "aug26", "label": "Aug-26", "type": "month", "new_in_curve": false, "gas_price": 131.98, "gas_day_pct": -4.196, "gas_week_pct": 9.23, "gas_30d_pct": 31.993, "power_price": 112.5, "power_day_pct": -1.704, "power_week_pct": 8.8, "power_30d_pct": 24.695, "history": { "gas": [ 99.99, 100.3, 97.07, 101.3, 100.09, 100.46, 97.52, 96.47, 97.8, 102.56, 104.45, 101.69, 104.51, 107.64, 104.61, 110.75, 116.7, 120.83, 117.19, 124.15, 128.15, 130.88, 131.98 ], "power": [ 90.22, 90, 88.8, 91.74, 90.38, 90, 88.48, 88, 89.05, 92.96, 95.13, 92.85, 94.37, 96.58, 95.5, 98.43, 101.48, 103.4, 102.15, 107.98, 110.36, 112.8, 112.5 ] }, "gas_trend": "rising", "gas_range_30d": { "low": 96.47, "high": 131.98, "position": 1 }, "gas_streak": { "dir": "up", "days": 4 }, "power_trend": "rising", "power_range_30d": { "low": 88, "high": 112.8, "position": 0.988 }, "power_streak": { "dir": "down", "days": 1 } }, { "key": "cal27", "label": "Cal-27", "type": "calendar", "new_in_curve": false, "gas_price": 102.39, "gas_day_pct": -0.71, "gas_week_pct": 8.3, "gas_30d_pct": 18.233, "power_price": 90.13, "power_day_pct": -0.99, "power_week_pct": 6.53, "power_30d_pct": 11.162, "history": { "gas": [ 86.6, 86.61, 85.73, 87.84, 87.07, 87.16, 85.55, 84.59, 84.78, 86.29, 87.27, 85.88, 86.71, 87.7, 86.56, 89.17, 92.66, 94.55, 93.14, 97.52, 100.84, 103.12, 102.39 ], "power": [ 81.08, 80.96, 81.03, 82.47, 81.36, 80.53, 79.69, 79.73, 80, 80.35, 81.11, 80.39, 80.78, 81.44, 81.16, 82.18, 83.68, 84.6, 83.89, 86.67, 88.96, 91.03, 90.13 ] }, "gas_trend": "rising", "gas_range_30d": { "low": 84.59, "high": 103.12, "position": 0.961 }, "gas_streak": { "dir": "down", "days": 1 }, "power_trend": "rising", "power_range_30d": { "low": 79.69, "high": 91.03, "position": 0.921 }, "power_streak": { "dir": "down", "days": 1 } }, { "key": "cal28", "label": "Cal-28", "type": "calendar", "new_in_curve": false, "gas_price": 72.92, "gas_day_pct": -0.91, "gas_week_pct": 2.99, "gas_30d_pct": 4.41, "power_price": 70.54, "power_day_pct": -0.89, "power_week_pct": 3.36, "power_30d_pct": 4.118, "history": { "gas": [ 69.84, 70.33, 70.09, 71.17, 70.22, 70.35, 69.74, 69.22, 69.54, 69.67, 69.44, 68.92, 69.26, 69.12, 68.55, 69.18, 70.05, 70.81, 70.31, 71.54, 72.82, 73.59, 72.92 ], "power": [ 67.75, 68.22, 68.48, 69.09, 68.47, 67.82, 67.71, 67.8, 67.92, 67.63, 67.56, 67.55, 67.51, 67.83, 67.67, 67.69, 67.89, 68.26, 68.21, 69.17, 70.04, 71.17, 70.54 ] }, "gas_trend": "rebound", "gas_range_30d": { "low": 68.55, "high": 73.59, "position": 0.867 }, "gas_streak": { "dir": "down", "days": 1 }, "power_trend": "rising", "power_range_30d": { "low": 67.51, "high": 71.17, "position": 0.828 }, "power_streak": { "dir": "down", "days": 1 } }, { "key": "cal29", "label": "Cal-29", "type": "calendar", "new_in_curve": false, "gas_price": 63.94, "gas_day_pct": 0.59, "gas_week_pct": 1.19, "gas_30d_pct": 1.412, "power_price": 65.82, "power_day_pct": -0.37, "power_week_pct": 1.21, "power_30d_pct": 0.381 }, { "key": "oct26", "label": "Oct-26", "type": "month", "new_in_curve": false, "gas_price": 132.51, "gas_day_pct": -4.159, "gas_week_pct": 8.97, "gas_30d_pct": null, "power_price": 110.62, "power_day_pct": -0.13, "power_week_pct": 8.75, "power_30d_pct": null }, { "key": "q127", "label": "Q1-27", "type": "quarter", "new_in_curve": false, "gas_price": 132.09, "gas_day_pct": 0.29, "gas_week_pct": 9.6, "gas_30d_pct": 26.462, "power_price": 113.87, "power_day_pct": -0.35, "power_week_pct": 8.27, "power_30d_pct": 19.788 }, { "key": "q227", "label": "Q2-27", "type": "quarter", "new_in_curve": false, "gas_price": 96.53, "gas_day_pct": -0.71, "gas_week_pct": 8.72, "gas_30d_pct": null, "power_price": 84.91, "power_day_pct": -1.37, "power_week_pct": 6.38, "power_30d_pct": null }, { "key": "q426", "label": "Q4-26", "type": "quarter", "new_in_curve": false, "gas_price": 135.6, "gas_day_pct": -4, "gas_week_pct": 9.3, "gas_30d_pct": 28.154, "power_price": 116.67, "power_day_pct": -0.19, "power_week_pct": 7.65, "power_30d_pct": 19.588 }, { "key": "sep26", "label": "Sep-26", "type": "month", "new_in_curve": false, "gas_price": 132.6, "gas_day_pct": -4.087, "gas_week_pct": 9.25, "gas_30d_pct": 30.243, "power_price": 112.68, "power_day_pct": -0.41, "power_week_pct": 7.5, "power_30d_pct": 21.685 }, { "key": "sum27", "label": "Sum-27", "type": "season", "new_in_curve": false, "gas_price": 93.15, "gas_day_pct": -2.102, "gas_week_pct": 8.5, "gas_30d_pct": 15.959, "power_price": 82.73, "power_day_pct": -1.41, "power_week_pct": 6.13, "power_30d_pct": 8.144, "gas_trend": "rebound", "gas_range_30d": { "low": 78.53, "high": 93.97, "position": 0.947 }, "gas_streak": { "dir": "down", "days": 1 }, "power_trend": "rebound", "power_range_30d": { "low": 74.88, "high": 83.91, "position": 0.869 }, "power_streak": { "dir": "down", "days": 1 } }, { "key": "sum28", "label": "Sum-28", "type": "season", "new_in_curve": false, "gas_price": 64.87, "gas_day_pct": -0.79, "gas_week_pct": 2.35, "gas_30d_pct": 2.707, "power_price": null, "power_day_pct": null, "power_week_pct": null, "power_30d_pct": null }, { "key": "win26", "label": "Win-26", "type": "season", "new_in_curve": false, "gas_price": 133.86, "gas_day_pct": -3.698, "gas_week_pct": 9.45, "gas_30d_pct": 27.328, "power_price": 115.29, "power_day_pct": -0.27, "power_week_pct": 7.95, "power_30d_pct": 19.682, "history": { "gas": [ 105.13, 105.57, 103.11, 106.95, 106.02, 106.07, 103.56, 102.03, 102.94, 106.67, 108.86, 106.76, 108.8, 110.97, 109.02, 114.76, 120.24, 122.31, 118.75, 125.25, 130.08, 133.27, 133.86 ], "power": [ 96.33, 95.84, 95.42, 97.94, 96.61, 95.79, 94.48, 94.07, 94.77, 96.8, 98.6, 96.96, 98.21, 99.6, 98.77, 102.32, 104.9, 106.79, 104.55, 108.96, 112.83, 115.6, 115.29 ] }, "gas_trend": "rising", "gas_range_30d": { "low": 102.03, "high": 133.86, "position": 1 }, "gas_streak": { "dir": "up", "days": 4 }, "power_trend": "rising", "power_range_30d": { "low": 94.07, "high": 115.6, "position": 0.986 }, "power_streak": { "dir": "down", "days": 1 } }, { "key": "win27", "label": "Win-27", "type": "season", "new_in_curve": false, "gas_price": 91.26, "gas_day_pct": -1.871, "gas_week_pct": 5.59, "gas_30d_pct": 10.981, "power_price": 83.94, "power_day_pct": -1.02, "power_week_pct": 5, "power_30d_pct": 6.957 } ], "reports": [ { "date": "2026-07-16", "title": "Daily Energy Market Report & Business Rates", "url": "https://www.smart-energy.uk/post/daily-energy-market-report" }, { "date": "2026-07-13", "title": "Weekly Energy Market Report", "url": "https://www.smart-energy.uk/weekly-energy-market-6-10-jul-2026" }, { "date": "2026-07-06", "title": "Weekly Energy Market Report", "url": "https://www.smart-energy.uk/weekly-energy-market-29-jun-3-jul-2026" }, { "date": "2026-06-29", "title": "Weekly Energy Market Report", "url": "https://www.smart-energy.uk/weekly-energy-market-22-26-jun-2026" } ] }