Daily Energy Market Report & Business Rates | Smart Energy Co
YOUR DAILY ENERGY
MARKET UPDATE
10th October 2025
Day-Ahead wholesale prices for delivery tomorrow
Source: SEFE daily report, 10 Oct 2025.
⏱️ 6 min read • Jump to section:
Today’s Prices (Day-Ahead)
| Metric | Gas | Electricity |
|---|---|---|
| Today (DA) | 82.50 p/th | £87.00/MWh |
| Yesterday | 82.95 p/th | £85.40/MWh |
| Change vs Yesterday | ↓ 0.45 (−0.54%) | ↑ £1.60 (+1.87%) |
| Last Week | 67.83 p/th | £52.00/MWh |
| Change vs Week | ↑ 14.67 (+21.63%) | ↑ £35.00 (+67.31%) |
Today’s Market Signal: ⚖️ MIXED – Gas eased again, power ticked higher. Weekly trend remains sharply up; near-term risk stays elevated while winter sits above summer on the forward curve.
📊 6-Month Market Trend
Prices remain range-bound with a recent upward tilt; today’s mixed move (gas down slightly, power up a touch) sits within that range as we approach winter.
6-Month Trend — Today’s Takeaway
The broader trend is still a gentle climb into winter. Today’s mix (gas slightly softer, power a touch firmer) sits inside the recent range. If you’re within 3 months of renewal, use dips like today on gas to check prices; power forwards remain attractive vs spot.
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🔎 What’s Driving Prices Today
- Retracement continues: markets opened lower and stayed range-bound after earlier-week strength.
- Norway risk premium: Troll outage plus upcoming Norne/Oseberg cuts keep a mild upside risk.
- Wind softer today: may lift gas-for-power demand into the weekend.
- LNG support: more NWE cargoes (notably into France) help cap the risk premium.
Forward Market Pricing — 10 Oct 2025
Gas (p/therm)
| Period | Today | vs Yday | vs Week |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov-25 | 82.97 | ▼ 0.67 (−0.80%) | ▲ 2.71 (+3.38%) |
| Dec-25 | 84.79 | ▼ 0.64 (−0.75%) | ▲ 1.56 (+1.87%) |
| Q1-26 | 85.45 | ▼ 0.61 (−0.71%) | ▲ 1.45 (+1.73%) |
| Sum-26 | 77.34 | ▼ 0.34 (−0.44%) | ▲ 0.81 (+1.06%) |
| Cal-26 | 80.95 | ▼ 0.41 (−0.50%) | ▲ 0.94 (+1.17%) |
Power (£/MWh)
| Period | Today | vs Yday | vs Week |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov-25 | £83.31 | ▼ 0.49 (−0.58%) | ▲ 2.78 (+3.45%) |
| Dec-25 | £81.30 | ▼ 0.58 (−0.71%) | ▲ 1.32 (+1.65%) |
| Q1-26 | £84.54 | ▼ 0.25 (−0.29%) | ▲ 1.48 (+1.78%) |
| Sum-26 | £72.30 | ▼ 0.26 (−0.36%) | — |
| Cal-26 | £77.11 | ▼ 0.27 (−0.35%) | ▲ 0.47 (+0.61%) |
Forward Trend Snapshot
Now → Winter (Nov–Jan / Q1)
Easing today
All near-term strips down d/d; still up vs last week.
Spring / Summer 2026
Small dips
Q2/Sum-26 down ~0.3–0.4% d/d; modest WoW rise.
Late 2026 / 2027
Drifting lower
Cal-26/27 both lower d/d; still a touch higher WoW.
Data logged 10 Oct 2025 (compared with 9 Oct & 3 Oct).
Day-Ahead vs Forwards (10 Oct 2025)
Badges show gap vs today’s day-ahead (green = cheaper than DA; red = dearer).
Lock In Rates While Winter Risk Builds
We compare 28+ UK suppliers in minutes. No obligation — just clear, fixed quotes you can act on fast.
Is now a good time to get prices?
Advice based on trend and your renewal date.
▶ Contract ends Oct–Dec 2025 ACT NOW
Winter risk is still priced in. Getting prices now avoids paying more if the curve lifts again.
▶ Contract ends Jan–Mar 2026 URGENT
Winter strips price tighter months. Check quotes this week and be ready to accept.
▶ Contract ends Apr–Jun 2026 MONITOR
Summer is cheaper; track weekly and move quickly if prices tick up.
Why fix your energy early?
No crystal ball — just trends and timing. We can request prices within 12 months of renewal. If today’s number fits your budget, fixing removes risk.
Good reasons to fix now
- Winter premium persists (gas Win-26 ~ 10.1% above Sum-26).
- Next 3 months average gas ~ 84.72p/th.
- You want a clear, protected budget before peak season.
What to weigh up
- 3–6 months out? Track weekly and move fast if the curve turns up.
- Once you accept a fixed rate, it’s locked for the term.
- Fixing swaps price risk for budget certainty.
⚠️ Contract ending in the next 3 months?
Today’s mix (gas −0.5% d/d; power +1.9% d/d, both up sharply w/w) shows how quickly things move. Fixing now removes exposure. Most suppliers need 2–5 working days to set up.
Get Emergency Quote⚡ The Wider Market
- Spot vs trend: Gas eased to 82.50p/th(−0.5% d/d) while power firmed to £87/MWh(+1.9% d/d). Week-on-week remains higher: gas +21.6%, power +67.3%.
- Forwards: Most strips slipped ~0.3–0.8% d/d but are still up on the week ~0.5–3.5%.
- Curve shape: Winter premium intact — Gas Win-26 85.15 vs Sum-26 77.34(~ +10.1%).
- Implication: Short-dated risk remains elevated into winter; later 2026 still offers softer levels (e.g., Gas Cal-26 80.95, Power Cal-26 £77.11).
👀 What to Watch Next
- UK & EU wind forecasts (7-day) — lower wind tends to lift power and gas-for-gen.
- Norwegian pipe flows& outages — reductions typically firm gas.
- LNG arrivals& terminal send-out — more cargoes ease the system.
- UK-EU interconnector availability — unplanned trips tighten margins.
- Weather turns — early cold snaps or calm spells lift demand.
- Carbon & coal input costs — higher costs support power prices.
Tip: Inside 3–6 months? Set alerts and move when two or more signals worsen together.
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Quick Questions About Today’s Market
Why did prices move today?
Gas cooled slightly (−0.5% d/d) after recent gains, while power firmed (+1.9% d/d). The weekly picture is still higher, led by power.
Are forwards good value today?
Selective value. Examples: Gas Cal-26 80.95(near today’s gas DA 82.50); Power Cal-26 £77.11 sits below power DA (£87). Winter strips remain dearer than summer.
How fast can I get a quote?
Usually same-day. For Half-Hourly or complex sites, allow up to 5 working days.
When is the right time to fix?
Within 3 months: fix now. 3–6 months: start quotes and track weekly. Further out: monitor long-dated; consider fixing early if they turn up.
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Final Thoughts
Prices mixed today — gas a touch softer, power a touch firmer — but still higher than a week ago and winter risk remains. Near-term forwards sit close to spot for gas and below spot for power, while later periods are cheaper. That’s why fixing helps: it removes uncertainty and protects your budget.
At Smart Energy Company we arrange fully fixed contracts — no exposure to day-to-day swings. If you’re in your renewal window, locking in now is the safest way to avoid future increases.
Questions about today’s market? Call us or visit our website.
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