Daily Energy Market Report & Business Rates | Smart Energy Co
⚡ UK Energy Market Update - 27th August 2025
Gas Eases, Power Jumps – Prices Mixed After Bank Holiday
Gas slipped slightly, while electricity surged higher. This mix leaves businesses facing an uncertain picture as forward contracts also edge up, especially into winter.
Today's Gas Price
83.25
p/therm
Change From Yesterday
Down by 0.50%
Today's Power Price
84.63
£/MWh
Change From Yesterday
Up by 6.59%
📌 Today’s Snapshot
Day‑Ahead (tomorrow’s delivery)
| Commodity | Price | Daily Change | Last Week | Last Month | Last Year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gas (UK NBP) | 83.25 p/therm | ▼ 0.01% | 🔺 9.40% | 🔺 7.35% | ▼ 0.09% |
| Power (UK Base) | £84.63/MWh | 🔺 8.44% | 🔺 8.40% | 🔺 3.97% | 🔺 0.04% |
- Gas: ↓ 0.6p since yesterday, but still +7p higher than last week.
- Power: ↑ £6.6 since yesterday, although still down vs last month.
💡 These are wholesale market prices (what suppliers pay before adding costs & margins). Business quotes are based on forward contracts, not just tomorrow’s delivery.
📈 Forward Market Pricing — what suppliers actually watch
Here's what energy costs for different contract periods - this is what drives your actual business energy quotes:
| Contract (Wholesale) | Gas (p/therm) | Power (£/MWh) | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Winter 2025 | 88.70 | 83.99 | ↑ Broadly higher (+1–2%) |
| Summer 2026 | 79.35 | 72.69 | ↑ (+0.5–1%) |
| Winter 2026 | 86.60 | 80.86 | ↑ (+0.5–1%) |
💡 What this means:
Winter contracts remain 15–20% more expensive than summer, meaning businesses renewing into winter will face higher costs. Yesterday’s upward push across forward contracts suggests suppliers may start adjusting quotes this week.
🔎 Why Have Prices Changed?
🔥 Gas Market Analysis
🔧 Norwegian supply cuts – Maintenance reduced pipeline flows, tightening short-term supply.
🛳️ LNG steady but limited – South Hook sending 5mcm/day, Dragon terminal offline.
📦 Storage healthy – UK/EU storage remains above 80%, helping limit major price spikes
⚡ Power Market Analysis
🌬️ Lower wind forecasts – Less renewable generation raised gas-for-power demand.
🔌 Nuclear output improving – Some capacity returning after maintenance, offsetting part of the shortfall.
🌍 Carbon & fuel costs firm – EUA carbon permits at €72.75/tonne and coal above $106/tonne added cost pressure.
🔎 How suppliers turn markets into your quote
Suppliers buy energy months and years ahead, not just day-to-day. That’s why movements in Winter 2025 and Summer 2026 contracts have a bigger impact on your renewal quotes than today’s spot price.
(Think of it like booking flights – prices for next summer aren’t based on today’s fuel price, but what’s expected then.)
💡 Is Now a Good Time to Get Prices?
Gas has eased slightly, but forward contracts (especially Winter 2025) are ticking up. Power spiked sharply today.
👉 If your renewal includes this coming winter, locking in sooner could protect against further upward moves.
🚨 Don’t Wait for Quotes to Rise
Winter contracts are edging up, and suppliers often pass these costs into quotes within days.
📉 The Wider Market
Looking at the past six months of wholesale energy prices reveals important patterns:
- Gas has stabilised in the 80–90p/th range after sharp swings earlier this summer.
- Power remains volatile, with yesterday’s jump pulling it towards the upper end of the recent range.
- Both markets remain below their 6-month highs, but suppliers are pricing in risk for winter.
💡 What This Means for Your Business
| Contract Renewal Timeline | Market-Based Action |
|---|---|
| Within 3 months | Fix now if possible – winter forwards are firming, and suppliers are likely to adjust quotes soon. |
| In 3-6 months | Monitor closely – prices are edging up. Consider forward buying if budgets need certainty. |
| 6+ months out | No urgency yet – but sign up for alerts so you don’t miss a potential dip. |
👀 What to Watch Next
- Norwegian maintenance continues this week – flows could remain restricted.
- LNG arrivals into NW Europe (several U.S. cargos due end of August) may add supply.
- Wind generation forecasts – another dip could keep power prices elevated.
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📝 Final Thoughts
Prices are mixed: gas dipped slightly but remains higher week-on-week, while power jumped significantly. For businesses, the risk lies in winter contract costs creeping up, which can feed into quotes quickly.
👉 Taking action early could mean the difference between a stable renewal and higher winter bills.
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