{"schema":"1.4","as_of":"2026-08-21","settlement_date":"2026-08-20","signal":{"action":"QUOTE NOW","colour":"red","reason":"Gas and power both rising week-on-week. Gas 8.1% w/w, power 5.7% w/w.","gasSignal":"PRICES RISING","powerSignal":"PRICES RISING"},"moves":{"daily":{"gas_pct":2.89,"power_pct":2.05},"weekly":{"gas_pct":8.1,"power_pct":5.74},"monthly":{"gas_pct":10.76,"power_pct":6.28}},"spot":{"gas_price":161.25,"gas_change_pct":null,"power_price":141.97,"power_change_pct":null},"reference":{"contract":"Sum-27","gas_price":105.19,"power_price":88.84,"gas_day_pct":4.54,"gas_week_pct":10.25,"gas_30d_pct":10.715,"power_day_pct":2.88,"power_week_pct":7.32,"power_30d_pct":6.052},"front_month":{"key":"sep26","label":"Sep-26","gas":{"price":161.23,"day_pct":3.095,"week_pct":8.59,"m30_pct":10.902,"trend":"rebound","streak":{"dir":"up","days":1},"range_30d":{"low":128.04,"high":161.23,"position":1},"net_pct":10.9},"power":{"price":127.23,"day_pct":0.9,"week_pct":3.88,"m30_pct":4.338,"trend":"rebound","streak":{"dir":"up","days":1},"range_30d":{"low":110.33,"high":127.88,"position":0.963},"net_pct":4.3}},"windows":[{"key":"sep26","label":"Sep-26","context":"In the next 1–3 months","horizon_rank":0,"is_front":true,"stance":"review","note":"September gas and power have both climbed hard this week and now sit at the highest level in the records we hold. Gas is at 161.23 p/therm (+8.6% week-on-week) and power at 127.23 £/MWh (+3.9%). The cheaper window that was open earlier in the month has closed. If you are renewing in the next 1–3 months, the case for securing now is materially stronger than it was a week ago—prices are at their dearest, and the drivers (geopolitical tension, Norwegian outages, low storage) are not going away soon.","gas":{"price":161.23,"day_pct":3.095,"week_pct":8.59,"m30_pct":10.902,"trend":"rebound","streak":{"dir":"up","days":1},"range_30d":{"low":128.04,"high":161.23,"position":1},"net_pct":10.9},"power":{"price":127.23,"day_pct":0.9,"week_pct":3.88,"m30_pct":4.338,"trend":"rebound","streak":{"dir":"up","days":1},"range_30d":{"low":110.33,"high":127.88,"position":0.963},"net_pct":4.3}}],"spotlight":{"contract":"sep26","label":"Sep-26","fuel":"gas","metric":"pattern","value":10.902,"dir":"up","trend":"rebound","text":"September gas has risen 8.6% this week and now sits at 161.23 p/therm—the highest level in the records we hold. The move was relentless: the contract climbed four of the five days, with the biggest single rise of 3.1% coming on Friday. This is not a one-day spike; it is a sustained repricing driven by geopolitical risk and Norwegian supply disruptions that are expected to persist through the autumn."},"narrative":{"headline":"Gas and power both climbed hard this week; near-term contracts now at their highest on record.","summary":"All 13 gas contracts and all 12 power contracts finished the week higher. The move was broad and relentless—nine of each fuel closed at record highs—driven by geopolitical tension in the Middle East, Norwegian supply disruptions, and tight European storage heading into winter. Anyone renewing in the next few months is now looking at prices near their dearest.","verdict":"Both fuels have moved decisively higher this week and sit near record levels; if you are renewing soon, the case for securing now is stronger than it was seven days ago.","trend_read":{"gas":"Gas fell earlier in the month, then climbed back up—and this week it has kept climbing. It now sits near the top of where it has been over the past month, with near-term contracts at the highest level in the records we hold.","power":"Power fell earlier in the month, then climbed back up—and this week it has kept climbing. It now sits near the top of where it has been over the past month, with near-term contracts at the highest level in the records we hold."},"scenario":{"upside":"If tensions in the Middle East escalate further or the Strait of Hormuz is disrupted, LNG flows to Europe could tighten sharply, pushing gas and power prices higher still. Alternatively, if Norwegian maintenance runs longer than scheduled or another major facility goes offline, near-term supply could tighten enough to push front-month contracts even higher.","downside":"If geopolitical tensions ease or diplomatic progress is made on the Strait of Hormuz, the supply risk premium could unwind quickly, pulling prices lower. A sustained period of cooler weather and strong wind generation could also ease power prices and reduce gas-for-power demand, easing some of the upward pressure on the curve."},"drivers":[{"title":"US-IRAN TENSIONS ESCALATE","body":"The 60-day US-Iran interim ceasefire expired on Monday without renewal. President Trump announced a maximum pressure campaign against Iran, including oil smuggling sanctions and financial restrictions. The UAE suspended economic transactions with Tehran following missile incidents. Qatari LNG supplies through the Strait of Hormuz remain heavily constrained.","tone":"up","outlook":"sticks","soWhat":"This is a longer-lasting supply risk, not a one-off event; it will keep a floor under prices through the autumn."},{"title":"NORWEGIAN PRODUCTION OUTAGES","body":"Unplanned outages at Kårstø processing and Gullfaks field cut 36 million cubic metres per day this week. Scheduled maintenance is ramping up sharply in September, with offline capacity rising from 25 mcm/d to 70–100 mcm/d, and some days exceeding 100 mcm/d. This removes a major source of European supply during the critical months ahead.","tone":"up","outlook":"sticks","soWhat":"Norwegian supply will remain under pressure through the autumn; this is structural, not temporary."},{"title":"EUROPEAN STORAGE LAGGING TARGETS","body":"EU-wide storage sits at 61.8% full, but the picture is uneven and concerning. Germany is at 50.2%, the Netherlands at 42.8%. Both countries are well below pre-winter targets and will need record injection rates to catch up. Rehden, Germany's largest facility, sits at just 7.7% full.","tone":"up","outlook":"sticks","soWhat":"Low storage ahead of winter is a persistent upward pressure on forward prices; it will not ease until injection rates accelerate significantly."},{"title":"ORMEN LANGE OUTAGE EXTENDS","body":"The extended outage at Norway's Ormen Lange field keeps 8.9 million cubic metres per day offline through February, removing a significant source of European supply during winter.","tone":"up","outlook":"sticks","soWhat":"This is a known constraint that will remain in place through the winter heating season."},{"title":"FRENCH NUCLEAR CONSTRAINTS EASE SLIGHTLY","body":"French nuclear unavailability is expected to average 14.2 GW in September, down from 20.4 GW in late August. The 3 GW Chooz plant remains offline due to water availability constraints on the Meuse river and is not expected to return until 4 September. Some relief is in sight as river levels recover.","tone":"down","outlook":"fades","soWhat":"This eases power pressure slightly, but only at the margin; Chooz will remain offline for another two weeks."},{"title":"WIND GENERATION FORECAST IMPROVES","body":"German wind and solar generation is forecast to average around 30 GW from Monday onwards, a substantial contribution. UK and German wind output is also expected to recover strongly as the heatwave breaks.","tone":"down","outlook":"fades","soWhat":"This is temporary relief; wind forecasts change frequently and do not alter the underlying gas supply picture."},{"title":"HEATWAVE BREAKING, COOLING DEMAND EASING","body":"Temperatures across the UK and northwest Europe have dropped below seasonal norms, reducing cooling demand and easing the amount of gas burned for power generation. This provides some counterbalance to supply tightness.","tone":"down","outlook":"fades","soWhat":"This is seasonal and temporary; heating demand will return as autumn arrives."}]},"contracts":[{"key":"sep26","label":"Sep-26","type":"month","slot":null,"new_in_curve":false,"gas_price":161.23,"gas_day_pct":3.095,"gas_week_pct":8.59,"gas_30d_pct":10.902,"power_price":127.23,"power_day_pct":0.9,"power_week_pct":3.88,"power_30d_pct":4.338,"gas_trend":"rebound","gas_range_30d":{"low":128.04,"high":161.23,"position":1},"gas_streak":{"dir":"up","days":1},"power_trend":"rebound","power_range_30d":{"low":110.33,"high":127.88,"position":0.963},"power_streak":{"dir":"up","days":1}},{"key":"oct26","label":"Oct-26","type":"month","slot":null,"new_in_curve":false,"gas_price":161.9,"gas_day_pct":2.872,"gas_week_pct":8.45,"gas_30d_pct":11.471,"power_price":127.66,"power_day_pct":2.44,"power_week_pct":6.36,"power_30d_pct":6.739},{"key":"q426","label":"Q4-26","type":"quarter","slot":null,"new_in_curve":false,"gas_price":164.58,"gas_day_pct":2.863,"gas_week_pct":8.32,"gas_30d_pct":11.444,"power_price":134.26,"power_day_pct":2.21,"power_week_pct":6.12,"power_30d_pct":7.348},{"key":"q127","label":"Q1-27","type":"quarter","slot":null,"new_in_curve":false,"gas_price":160.58,"gas_day_pct":3.194,"gas_week_pct":9.76,"gas_30d_pct":14.008,"power_price":132.49,"power_day_pct":2.25,"power_week_pct":7.73,"power_30d_pct":10.032},{"key":"q227","label":"Q2-27","type":"quarter","slot":null,"new_in_curve":false,"gas_price":109.21,"gas_day_pct":4.43,"gas_week_pct":10.25,"gas_30d_pct":10.581,"power_price":91.11,"power_day_pct":2.96,"power_week_pct":7.39,"power_30d_pct":5.905},{"key":"win26","label":"Win-26","type":"season","slot":null,"new_in_curve":false,"gas_price":162.6,"gas_day_pct":3.02,"gas_week_pct":9.02,"gas_30d_pct":12.682,"power_price":133.38,"power_day_pct":2.23,"power_week_pct":6.9,"power_30d_pct":8.651,"history":{"gas":[144.3,150.65,149.93,153.53,141.67,140.19,146.73,142.14,143.31,140.6,137.1,128.96,136.73,136.68,149.2,144.96,150.44,149.15,151.36,152.66,157.79,157.83,162.6],"power":[122.76,127.39,126.91,128.25,121.22,119.41,124,121.15,121.76,119.8,117.31,112.38,116.59,116.83,121.91,122.32,125.33,124.77,125.97,127.3,129.92,130.48,133.38]}},{"key":"sum27","label":"Sum-27","type":"season","slot":null,"new_in_curve":false,"gas_price":105.19,"gas_day_pct":4.54,"gas_week_pct":10.25,"gas_30d_pct":10.715,"power_price":88.84,"power_day_pct":2.88,"power_week_pct":7.32,"power_30d_pct":6.052},{"key":"win27","label":"Win-27","type":"season","slot":null,"new_in_curve":false,"gas_price":102.98,"gas_day_pct":3.228,"gas_week_pct":9.8,"gas_30d_pct":11.246,"power_price":89.88,"power_day_pct":1.98,"power_week_pct":5.23,"power_30d_pct":5.941},{"key":"sum28","label":"Sum-28","type":"season","slot":null,"new_in_curve":false,"gas_price":72.74,"gas_day_pct":1.74,"gas_week_pct":5.05,"gas_30d_pct":9.565,"power_price":null,"power_day_pct":null,"power_week_pct":null,"power_30d_pct":null},{"key":"cal27","label":"Cal-27","type":"calendar","slot":null,"new_in_curve":false,"gas_price":118.48,"gas_day_pct":3.89,"gas_week_pct":10.03,"gas_30d_pct":11.985,"power_price":99.24,"power_day_pct":2.47,"power_week_pct":6.99,"power_30d_pct":7.298,"history":{"gas":[105.8,107.34,104.77,104.72,101.55,100.37,96.57,101.01,101.35,103.78,107.59,107.68,108.78,109.42,113.3,114.05,118.48],"power":[92.49,93.45,91.95,91.83,90.44,88.9,86.8,89.44,89.58,90.75,92.84,92.76,93.41,94.36,96.13,96.85,99.24]}},{"key":"cal28","label":"Cal-28","type":"calendar","slot":null,"new_in_curve":false,"gas_price":81.51,"gas_day_pct":1.92,"gas_week_pct":6.18,"gas_30d_pct":9.66,"power_price":75.06,"power_day_pct":1.25,"power_week_pct":3.48,"power_30d_pct":4.774,"history":{"gas":[74.33,76.69,75.71,75.78,73.46,73.7,71.82,74.38,74.04,74.69,76.76,76.77,77.31,77.31,79.02,79.97,81.51],"power":[71.64,72.72,71.99,71.83,70.95,70.09,69.51,71.56,71.5,71.63,72.71,72.54,72.85,73.03,73.83,74.13,75.06]}},{"key":"cal29","label":"Cal-29","type":"calendar","slot":null,"new_in_curve":false,"gas_price":68.46,"gas_day_pct":-0.08,"gas_week_pct":1.35,"gas_30d_pct":4.92,"power_price":68.26,"power_day_pct":0.86,"power_week_pct":1.65,"power_30d_pct":2.048},{"key":"nov26","label":"Nov-26","type":"month","slot":null,"new_in_curve":false,"gas_price":164.92,"gas_day_pct":2.837,"gas_week_pct":8.23,"gas_30d_pct":null,"power_price":138.05,"power_day_pct":2.13,"power_week_pct":5.84,"power_30d_pct":null}],"renewal_outlook":{"version":"1.0","methodology":"coverage_weighted_forward_evidence","as_of":"2026-08-21","history_basis":{"usable_reports":156,"first_report":"2026-01-05","last_report":"2026-08-21"},"months":[{"contractEnd":"2026-09","contractEndLabel":"September 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