Week of 5 Oct – 9 Oct 2026 Latest settlement: 8 October 2026
Weekly review · Week 41 · 5 Oct – 9 Oct 2026
The week in review: gas firmed 3.8%, power firmed 2.5%
A day-by-day recap of how UK gas and electricity moved across the trading week of 5 Oct – 9 Oct 2026, and where that leaves businesses approaching renewal.
Bigger picture
Still high over the six months held
Key risk
Middle east shipping risk escalates
The week in review
How the week actually moved
Not one day's snapshot — the whole week, day by day. Each line traces the front-month close from Monday to Friday, so you see the shape
of the week, not just where it ended.
Week of 5 Oct – 9 Oct 2026
Natural gas
The week in 5 days · p/therm
↑ 3.80%
vs last week
rose through the week · +4.0% Mon→Fri
Week avg
189.91 Week low
183.59 Week high
195.67
low 96.52Fri close · today ●205.19 high
Electricity
The week in 5 days · £/MWh
↑ 2.55%
vs last week
rose through the week · +3.5% Mon→Fri
Week avg
153.77 Week low
149.23 Week high
158.35
low 82.28Fri close · today ●158.35 high
What matters
One week rarely changes a renewal decision
The shape:
a week that fell then bounced tells you more than the net number.
Wider view:
the 6-month charts below show whether this week is a blip or a trend.
For buyers:
a good week doesn't reset your deadline — your contract end date still drives urgency.
Biggest move of the weekQ3-27
gas ↑ 11.06%
— the largest week-on-week swing across every contract we track.
Why prices moved
Forces pulling prices in both directions
A balanced view is more useful than a single prediction. These are the main influences in the latest report.
Pressure pulling prices lower
Wind generation swings sharply
Wind output across Northwest Europe dropped to lows of 2.9–7.7 GW mid-week, supporting thermal generation economics and power prices. However, an Atlantic front has since brought gale-force winds, lifting UK wind to 17–18 GW and German output above 30 GW by Friday. This renewable surge has collapsed spot power prices even as forward contracts climbed.
Lng sendout bolstered by arrivals
The Maran Gas Nice has arrived at South Hook, with two further LNG cargoes due within the next ten days. This additional supply has provided some offset to the week's upward pressure, though it has not reversed the broader climb.
Risks that could push prices higher
Middle east shipping risk escalates
An LNG tanker was struck by a projectile in the Strait of Hormuz on 7 October, and Iranian officials threatened to close southern shipping lanes along Oman's coast. Nine vessels have been targeted in the Strait over the past seven days. These threats compound existing concerns about Qatari LNG exports transiting the region and have driven aggressive buying across European gas and power markets.
Us military preparations against iran
Reports that the White House instructed the Pentagon to prepare strike options against Iran ahead of the US midterms amplified geopolitical risk. By Friday, President Trump suggested productive discussions with Iran and an intention to avoid military strikes before the election, which eased some acute sentiment.
Norwegian pipeline outages tighten supply
Unplanned outages at Norway's Dvalin and Heidrun fields cut 22 million cubic metres per day, lifting total Norwegian offline capacity to 39 million cubic metres per day. These fields are not expected to return until next week, leaving the Dutch grid short through the period.
European storage below seasonal norms
European gas storage stands at 73.12% capacity, trailing the five-year seasonal norm by nearly 14 percentage points. The UK is particularly constrained at 33.69% full, and Germany sits at 59.44%, both well below comfortable buffers. This structural tightness has supported the week's rally.
French nuclear and hydro deficits persist
The 3 GW Chooz nuclear plant remains offline until 23 October due to low cooling water flows, and French hydro reserves have dropped to 48.6% of capacity—23.6 percentage points below normal. An EDF union strike also threatened nuclear availability mid-week. These deficits are supporting power prices across the European curve.
Hurricane isaias shuts us gas production
Hurricane Isaias has shut in roughly 1.3 million barrels per day of crude and 16% of gas production across the US Gulf of Mexico. This has supported Brent crude near $103.50/barrel and added to the week's upward pressure on global energy prices.
Brent crude breaks above $103
Brent crude climbed to $104/barrel on Thursday and has settled near $103.50/barrel, supported by Middle East tensions, OPEC+ output unchanged, and US Gulf of Mexico shutdowns. Higher crude often correlates with higher gas and power prices in the short term.
6-month direction
Was this week a blip or a trend?
The week-on-week number tells you the direction; these 6-month lines tell you whether it's part of a bigger move. Each tracks a rolling maturity — the near-term price, the next winter and the year ahead — so nothing breaks as contracts roll off. Hover for the value on any day.
Gas forward prices
Rolling maturities · p/therm
Near-term (Nov-26)
Next winter (Win-27)
Year ahead (Cal-27)
Each line is a rolling maturity — the near-term line always follows the current front month, so it never breaks as contracts roll off.
Power forward prices
Rolling maturities · £/MWh
Near-term (Nov-26)
Next winter (Win-27)
Year ahead (Cal-27)
Power tends to track gas; the chart shows how far the recent move has carried.
Your renewal window
Guidance grouped by how soon your contract ends
Timing urgency comes from your deadline; the market view comes from the forward contracts covering each renewal's supply period. Open your band for separate gas and electricity evidence.
Timing and value are different.
Wholesale prices are currently rising. If your contract ends within three months, still get live quotes now — your decision window is shortening. Later renewals have more time to monitor the market.
1–3 monthsNovember 2026–January 2027
Nov 2026Dec 2026Jan 2027
Get live quotes now
Gas is up 5.3–10.5% this week and up 2.8–17.2% over 30 days; electricity up 4.3–9.3% this week, up 1.1–14.9% over 30 days.
⌄
Evidence confidenceMedium
⚠ December leans on Cal-27 only, so it has less seasonal visibility.
GasNear the top
Rising
This week
Up 5.3–10.5% 30 days
Up 2.8–17.2%
low 57.84Sum-27 · today ●148.50 high
Evidence:
Dec-26, Q1-27, Sum-27, Win-27, Cal-27
ElectricityNear the top
Rising
This week
Up 4.3–9.3% 30 days
Up 1.1–14.9%
low 59.74Sum-27 · today ●117.05 high
Evidence:
Dec-26, Q1-27, Sum-27, Win-27, Cal-27
What this means
Your deadline creates the urgency. Use the current move to compare live supplier quotes now, but don't treat one falling day as proof the market has reached its bottom.
4–6 monthsFebruary–April 2027
Feb 2027Mar 2027Apr 2027
Review and compare
Gas is up 6.1–11.1% this week and up 4.5–17.2% over 30 days; electricity up 5.8–9.8% this week, up 6.2–18.2% over 30 days.
Start reviewing the market and compare 12-, 24- and 36-month options. You have time for a considered decision, so weigh the certainty each term buys rather than chasing a perfect day.
7–9 monthsMay–July 2027
May 2027Jun 2027Jul 2027
Prepare and monitor
Gas is up 7.4–11.1% this week and up 15.2–17% over 30 days; electricity up 5.8–9.8% this week, up 13.9–18.2% over 30 days.
⌄
Evidence confidenceMedium
GasNear the top
Rising
This week
Up 7.4–11.1% 30 days
Up 15.2–17%
low 65.81Win-27 · today ●142.35 high
Evidence:
Q2-27, Q3-27, Win-27, Sum-28
ElectricityNear the top
Rising
This week
Up 5.8–9.8% 30 days
Up 13.9–18.2%
low 74.51Win-27 · today ●117.48 high
Evidence:
Q2-27, Q3-27, Win-27, Sum-28
What this means
Get usage and site details ready, monitor the relevant forward contracts and use indicative quotes to understand the range. No need to force a decision while visibility is adequate.
10–12 monthsAugust–October 2027
Aug 2027Sep 2027Oct 2027
Plan ahead and watch
Gas is up 5.8–11.1% this week and up 15.2–26.6% over 30 days; electricity up 5.8–9.8% this week, up 11–18.2% over 30 days.
⌄
Evidence confidenceMedium
GasNear the top
Rising
This week
Up 5.8–11.1% 30 days
Up 15.2–26.6%
low 65.81Win-27 · today ●142.35 high
Evidence:
Q3-27, Win-27, Sum-28, Win-28
ElectricityNear the top
Rising
This week
Up 5.8–9.8% 30 days
Up 11–18.2%
low 74.51Win-27 · today ●117.48 high
Evidence:
Q3-27, Win-27, Sum-28, Cal-28
What this means
Plan your procurement timetable and stay informed. Far-dated products can hide seasonal detail, so a firm buy-or-wait instruction would be false precision at this stage.
The honest read
Gas and power are not moving together. That makes any single read of the market less reliable.
And wholesale is only part of a quote — non-energy charges, credit, volume and shape all move the final rate. The practical decision is how much further movement your business can tolerate before its contract deadline.
If prices ease further
Wind, milder weather and diplomacy help
A de-escalation in Iran–US rhetoric, combined with the return of Norwegian pipeline capacity and sustained strong wind generation, could ease the structural tightness and allow prices to slip back from their week-end highs.
If prices rise again
Low storage leaves little cushion
Further escalation in Middle East tensions, or a new attack on LNG infrastructure, could reignite the sharp buying seen mid-week and push prices higher still, especially if Norwegian outages extend beyond next week.
Fixing buys budget certainty. It does not prove that a business has predicted the market correctly.
Market in numbers
The wholesale forward curve
Where the week ended across every contract — kept for readers who want the detail.
Open gas and electricity forward tables Monthly, quarterly, seasonal and annual contracts · week-ending close
View data ⌄
Gas
p/therm
Contract
Price
Day
Week
30d
Nov-26
month
195.67
↑ 1.06%
↑ 4.90%
↑ 2.18%
Dec-26
month
198.43
↑ 0.97%
↑ 5.32%
↑ 2.83%
Jan-27
month
200.02
↑ 0.95%
↑ 5.67%
—
Q1-27
quarter
196.04
↑ 1.01%
↑ 6.06%
↑ 4.45%
Q2-27
quarter
153.92
↑ 2.17%
↑ 9.79%
↑ 16.48%
Q3-27
quarter
143.15
↑ 1.77%
↑ 11.06%
—
Sum-27
season
148.50
↑ 1.97%
↑ 10.40%
↑ 17.23%
Win-27
season
142.35
↑ 1.69%
↑ 10.50%
↑ 16.96%
Sum-28
season
90.66
↑ 1.25%
↑ 7.35%
↑ 15.17%
Win-28
season
96.97
↑ 1.31%
↑ 5.75%
↑ 26.58%
Cal-27
calendar
159.11
↑ 1.62%
↑ 9.07%
↑ 13.07%
Cal-28
calendar
104.33
↑ 1.42%
↑ 8.01%
↑ 15.09%
Cal-29
calendar
81.45
↑ 0.78%
↑ 3.91%
↑ 11.80%
Electricity
£/MWh
Contract
Price
Day
Week
30d
Nov-26
month
158.35
↑ 1.08%
↑ 4.04%
↑ 0.64%
Dec-26
month
156.87
↑ 0.40%
↑ 4.30%
↑ 1.06%
Jan-27
month
170.15
↑ 1.92%
↑ 6.03%
—
Q1-27
quarter
161.97
↑ 1.86%
↑ 6.06%
↑ 6.15%
Q2-27
quarter
121.38
↑ 1.40%
↑ 8.91%
↑ 15.85%
Q3-27
quarter
112.77
↑ 2.17%
↑ 9.76%
—
Sum-27
season
117.05
↑ 1.77%
↑ 9.32%
↑ 14.91%
Win-27
season
117.48
↑ 1.71%
↑ 8.76%
↑ 13.94%
Sum-28
season
77.07
↑ 0.59%
↑ 5.83%
↑ 18.17%
Cal-27
calendar
127.82
↑ 1.65%
↑ 8.18%
↑ 10.95%
Cal-28
calendar
89.47
↑ 1.12%
↑ 6.14%
↑ 11.01%
Cal-29
calendar
75.90
↑ 0.58%
↑ 3.30%
↑ 6.59%
Fixed-term choices
Contract length is a risk decision, not a forecast
No term protects against every outcome. Weigh the certainty the business wants against how soon it is willing to return to the market.
12
months
More flexibility if markets fall, but the business returns to the market sooner.
Shorter budget certainty
Earlier exposure to the next renewal
Useful where flexibility matters most
24
months
A middle ground between price certainty and revisiting the market.
Two-year budgeting
Less frequent procurement
Still allows a medium-term review
36
months
Greater certainty, but a longer commitment if markets later fall.
Tell us your end date and the market moves that matter, and we'll tell you when your target is reached.
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Gas 7.5% w/w, power 6.7% w/w.","gasSignal":"PRICES RISING","powerSignal":"PRICES RISING"},"moves":{"daily":{"gas_pct":1.38,"power_pct":1.35},"weekly":{"gas_pct":7.52,"power_pct":6.72},"monthly":{"gas_pct":12.9,"power_pct":9.93}},"spot":{"gas_price":187.25,"gas_change_pct":null,"power_price":77.1,"power_change_pct":null},"reference":{"contract":"Sum-27","gas_price":148.5,"power_price":117.05,"gas_day_pct":1.971,"gas_week_pct":10.4,"gas_30d_pct":17.225,"power_day_pct":1.774,"power_week_pct":9.32,"power_30d_pct":14.913},"front_month":{"key":"nov26","label":"Nov-26","gas":{"price":195.67,"day_pct":1.059,"week_pct":4.9,"m30_pct":2.183,"trend":"rebound","streak":{"dir":"up","days":3},"range_30d":{"low":176.53,"high":208.92,"position":0.591},"net_pct":2.2},"power":{"price":158.35,"day_pct":1.085,"week_pct":4.04,"m30_pct":0.636,"trend":"rebound","streak":{"dir":"up","days":3},"range_30d":{"low":145.85,"high":169.22,"position":0.535},"net_pct":0.6}},"windows":[{"key":"nov26","label":"Nov-26","context":"In the next 1–3 months","horizon_rank":0,"is_front":true,"stance":"review","note":"Gas and power both hit their highest levels in the records we hold this week, and both are now up three days running. The week's path—a dip early on, then a sharp climb from mid-week—means anyone renewing in the next 1–3 months is now paying considerably more than they would have on Monday. This window warrants a review of live options to understand the cost of fixing now versus the risk of waiting.","gas":{"price":195.67,"day_pct":1.059,"week_pct":4.9,"m30_pct":2.183,"trend":"rebound","streak":{"dir":"up","days":3},"range_30d":{"low":176.53,"high":208.92,"position":0.591},"net_pct":2.2},"power":{"price":158.35,"day_pct":1.085,"week_pct":4.04,"m30_pct":0.636,"trend":"rebound","streak":{"dir":"up","days":3},"range_30d":{"low":145.85,"high":169.22,"position":0.535},"net_pct":0.6}}],"spotlight":{"contract":"nov26","label":"Nov-26","fuel":"gas","metric":"pattern","value":2.183,"dir":"up","trend":"rebound","text":"November gas climbed 4.9% over the week and sits in the upper half of its 30-day range after falling to a low on 6 October and then climbing back sharply. The rebound reflects escalating Middle East shipping risks and Norwegian supply outages, both of which are likely to persist. This is the most liquid contract and the one most renewers anchor on; its climb this week is the market's clearest signal."},"narrative":{"headline":"Gas and power both hit highest levels in records held; week turned mid-way after dip","summary":"Both fuels fell early in the week, then climbed back sharply from Wednesday onwards as Middle East shipping risks escalated. Nine of thirteen gas contracts and eight of twelve power contracts closed at their highest levels on record. Anyone renewing in the next few months is now paying considerably more than they would have just days ago.","verdict":"The week's sharp climb from a mid-week low means near-term renewals are now at elevated levels; those with flexibility should review live options, whilst longer-dated renewals can afford to watch.","trend_read":{"gas":"Gas fell early in the week to a low on 6 October, then climbed back steadily from 7 October onwards, finishing the week up 4.9% on the front month and up 9.1% on the 12-month contract. Today sits in the upper half of the 30-day range, and the market has now risen three days running.","power":"Power followed the same path: a dip on 6 October, then a climb back from 7 October that carried through to the week's end. The front month is up 4.0% on the week and up 8.2% over the 12-month contract. Today sits mid-range on the 30-day chart, also up three days running."},"scenario":{"upside":"Further escalation in Middle East tensions, or a new attack on LNG infrastructure, could reignite the sharp buying seen mid-week and push prices higher still, especially if Norwegian outages extend beyond next week.","downside":"A de-escalation in Iran–US rhetoric, combined with the return of Norwegian pipeline capacity and sustained strong wind generation, could ease the structural tightness and allow prices to slip back from their week-end highs."},"drivers":[{"title":"MIDDLE EAST SHIPPING RISK ESCALATES","body":"An LNG tanker was struck by a projectile in the Strait of Hormuz on 7 October, and Iranian officials threatened to close southern shipping lanes along Oman's coast. Nine vessels have been targeted in the Strait over the past seven days. These threats compound existing concerns about Qatari LNG exports transiting the region and have driven aggressive buying across European gas and power markets.","tone":"up","outlook":"sticks","soWhat":"Shipping risk to LNG supply is likely to persist until geopolitical tensions ease; this underpins the week's broad price climb."},{"title":"US MILITARY PREPARATIONS AGAINST IRAN","body":"Reports that the White House instructed the Pentagon to prepare strike options against Iran ahead of the US midterms amplified geopolitical risk. By Friday, President Trump suggested productive discussions with Iran and an intention to avoid military strikes before the election, which eased some acute sentiment.","tone":"up","outlook":"mixed","soWhat":"Rhetoric has softened, but the underlying risk remains; any escalation could reignite the week's buying pressure."},{"title":"NORWEGIAN PIPELINE OUTAGES TIGHTEN SUPPLY","body":"Unplanned outages at Norway's Dvalin and Heidrun fields cut 22 million cubic metres per day, lifting total Norwegian offline capacity to 39 million cubic metres per day. These fields are not expected to return until next week, leaving the Dutch grid short through the period.","tone":"up","outlook":"fades","soWhat":"Supply tightness is temporary; once these fields return, one driver of this week's climb will ease."},{"title":"EUROPEAN STORAGE BELOW SEASONAL NORMS","body":"European gas storage stands at 73.12% capacity, trailing the five-year seasonal norm by nearly 14 percentage points. The UK is particularly constrained at 33.69% full, and Germany sits at 59.44%, both well below comfortable buffers. This structural tightness has supported the week's rally.","tone":"up","outlook":"sticks","soWhat":"Low storage is a longer-lasting backdrop that will keep forward prices supported through the winter."},{"title":"WIND GENERATION SWINGS SHARPLY","body":"Wind output across Northwest Europe dropped to lows of 2.9–7.7 GW mid-week, supporting thermal generation economics and power prices. However, an Atlantic front has since brought gale-force winds, lifting UK wind to 17–18 GW and German output above 30 GW by Friday. This renewable surge has collapsed spot power prices even as forward contracts climbed.","tone":"down","outlook":"mixed","soWhat":"Near-term spot relief from wind does not change the structural tightness in forward prices; renewables are volatile and temporary."},{"title":"FRENCH NUCLEAR AND HYDRO DEFICITS PERSIST","body":"The 3 GW Chooz nuclear plant remains offline until 23 October due to low cooling water flows, and French hydro reserves have dropped to 48.6% of capacity—23.6 percentage points below normal. An EDF union strike also threatened nuclear availability mid-week. These deficits are supporting power prices across the European curve.","tone":"up","outlook":"sticks","soWhat":"French generation constraints will remain in place through October; this is a structural support for power prices."},{"title":"HURRICANE ISAIAS SHUTS US GAS PRODUCTION","body":"Hurricane Isaias has shut in roughly 1.3 million barrels per day of crude and 16% of gas production across the US Gulf of Mexico. This has supported Brent crude near $103.50/barrel and added to the week's upward pressure on global energy prices.","tone":"up","outlook":"fades","soWhat":"Hurricane impacts are temporary; once the storm passes and US production resumes, this driver will fade."},{"title":"BRENT CRUDE BREAKS ABOVE $103","body":"Brent crude climbed to $104/barrel on Thursday and has settled near $103.50/barrel, supported by Middle East tensions, OPEC+ output unchanged, and US Gulf of Mexico shutdowns. Higher crude often correlates with higher gas and power prices in the short term.","tone":"up","outlook":"mixed","soWhat":"Crude prices reflect the same geopolitical and supply pressures driving gas and power; they are likely to move together."},{"title":"LNG SENDOUT BOLSTERED BY ARRIVALS","body":"The Maran Gas Nice has arrived at South Hook, with two further LNG cargoes due within the next ten days. This additional supply has provided some offset to the week's upward pressure, though it has not reversed the broader climb.","tone":"down","outlook":"fades","soWhat":"LNG arrivals provide short-term relief; they ease immediate supply tightness but do not alter the structural 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