Weekly Energy Market Report: 28th Sept - 2nd Oct 2026
SMART ENERGY
Weekly Energy Briefing · UK
Week of 28 Sept – 2 Oct 2026 Latest settlement: 1 October 2026
Weekly review · Week 40 · 28 Sept – 2 Oct 2026
The week in review: gas eased 3.2%, power eased 2.3%
A day-by-day recap of how UK gas and electricity moved across the trading week of 28 Sept – 2 Oct 2026, and where that leaves businesses approaching renewal.
Bigger picture
Still high over the six months held
Key risk
Wind generation collapses, then recovers
The week in review
How the week actually moved
Not one day's snapshot — the whole week, day by day. Each line traces the front-month close from Monday to Friday, so you see the shape
of the week, not just where it ended.
Week of 28 Sept – 2 Oct 2026
Natural gas
The week in 5 days · p/therm
↓ 3.23%
vs last week
rose through the week · +1.9% Mon→Fri
Week avg
182.96 Week low
176.53 Week high
186.53
low 96.52Fri close · today ●205.19 high
Electricity
The week in 5 days · £/MWh
↓ 2.30%
vs last week
rose through the week · +1.6% Mon→Fri
Week avg
149.95 Week low
145.85 Week high
152.20
low 82.28Fri close · today ●158.00 high
What matters
One week rarely changes a renewal decision
The shape:
a week that fell then bounced tells you more than the net number.
Wider view:
the 6-month charts below show whether this week is a blip or a trend.
For buyers:
a good week doesn't reset your deadline — your contract end date still drives urgency.
Biggest move of the weekDec-26
gas ↓ 2.22%
— the largest week-on-week swing across every contract we track.
Why prices moved
Forces pulling prices in both directions
A balanced view is more useful than a single prediction. These are the main influences in the latest report.
Pressure pulling prices lower
Middle east supply fears ease
Saudi Arabia resumed flows on its East-West pipeline at half capacity on Tuesday, bringing regional crude exports back to 17.5 million barrels per day. The US also announced a Strategic Petroleum Reserve release of up to 40 million barrels. These moves eased the supply risk premium that had built up over the Strait of Hormuz standoff, allowing gas and power prices to fall sharply mid-week.
Chinese lng demand weakens
September Chinese LNG imports fell 8% year-on-year, signalling weaker industrial demand. This eased global LNG market tightness and helped pull European gas prices lower mid-week.
Norway troll outage ends
The unplanned compressor outage at Norway's Troll field, which had held 46.2 million cubic metres per day offline, ended on Tuesday. Norwegian exit nominations recovered by over 60 million cubic metres per day from the previous week's lows.
Mild weather forecast persists
Late September warmth peaked this week, with temperatures running 6°C to 11°C above seasonal norms. Forecasts show temperatures will remain mild throughout the coming months: Germany projected 5°C warmer than normal, France 2°C above average. This will delay heating demand and help extend the usefulness of gas storage.
Risks that could push prices higher
Wind generation collapses, then recovers
Northwest European wind speeds bottomed at 4–6 metres per second on Friday, leaving German wind below 5 GW and forcing sharp increases in thermal generation. An Atlantic weather system then lifted wind output to 15–17 GW across Wednesday and Thursday before it was forecast to collapse again into the weekend. This volatility has driven day-to-day power swings all week.
French nuclear outages extend
Low river flows on the Meuse have extended the total shutdown at the 3 GW Chooz nuclear plant to 13 October, whilst Cattenom 2 remains curtailed by 1 GW. French nuclear unavailability now stands at 24.1 GW. France turned to net imports for several hours on Thursday, a sign of how constrained supply has become.
Uk nuclear outages delay returns
Delayed refuelling outages at Heysham 1 and Hartlepool 2 keep 783 MW of UK nuclear capacity offline into early October.
European storage below seasonal norm
EU gas storage stands at 71.33% of capacity, roughly 15 percentage points below the five-year seasonal average of 87%. Storage levels vary sharply by region: France at 83.23%, Italy at 86.97%, but Germany at 57.74% and the Netherlands at 58.15%. Germany's net storage injections have slowed dramatically, averaging only 13 cubic metres per day in week 39.
Brent crude climbs on china export ban
Brent crude climbed 3% on Thursday as China suspended oil product exports to focus on domestic supply during a period of market tightness. Crude has recovered above $106 per barrel, providing a strength signal across the wider energy complex.
6-month direction
Was this week a blip or a trend?
The week-on-week number tells you the direction; these 6-month lines tell you whether it's part of a bigger move. Each tracks a rolling maturity — the near-term price, the next winter and the year ahead — so nothing breaks as contracts roll off. Hover for the value on any day.
Gas forward prices
Rolling maturities · p/therm
Near-term (Nov-26)
Next winter (Win-27)
Year ahead (Cal-27)
Each line is a rolling maturity — the near-term line always follows the current front month, so it never breaks as contracts roll off.
Power forward prices
Rolling maturities · £/MWh
Near-term (Nov-26)
Next winter (Win-27)
Year ahead (Cal-27)
Power tends to track gas; the chart shows how far the recent move has carried.
Your renewal window
Guidance grouped by how soon your contract ends
Timing urgency comes from your deadline; the market view comes from the forward contracts covering each renewal's supply period. Open your band for separate gas and electricity evidence.
Timing and value are different.
Wholesale prices are broadly flat. If your contract ends within three months, still get live quotes now — your decision window is shortening. Later renewals have more time to monitor the market.
1–3 monthsNovember 2026–January 2027
Nov 2026Dec 2026Jan 2027
Get live quotes now
Gas is down 0.2–2.2% this week and up 3.1–14.9% over 30 days; electricity -1.1% to 0.5% this week, up 2.8–10.4% over 30 days.
⌄
Evidence confidenceMedium
⚠ December leans on Cal-27 only, so it has less seasonal visibility.
GasNear the top
Little changed
This week
Down 0.2–2.2% 30 days
Up 3.1–14.9%
low 57.84Sum-27 · today ●136.76 high
Evidence:
Dec-26, Q1-27, Sum-27, Win-27, Cal-27
ElectricityNear the top
Little changed
This week
-1.1% to 0.5% 30 days
Up 2.8–10.4%
low 59.74Sum-27 · today ●109.75 high
Evidence:
Dec-26, Q1-27, Sum-27, Win-27, Cal-27
What this means
Your deadline creates the urgency. Use the current move to compare live supplier quotes now, but don't treat one falling day as proof the market has reached its bottom.
4–6 monthsFebruary–April 2027
Feb 2027Mar 2027Apr 2027
Review and compare
Gas is -2% to 0.2% this week and up 5–15.3% over 30 days; electricity -0.6% to 1.6% this week, up 6.4–11.8% over 30 days.
Start reviewing the market and compare 12-, 24- and 36-month options. You have time for a considered decision, so weigh the certainty each term buys rather than chasing a perfect day.
7–9 monthsMay–July 2027
May 2027Jun 2027Jul 2027
Prepare and monitor
Gas is -0.8% to 0.2% this week and up 9.4–15.3% over 30 days; electricity -0.6% to 1.6% this week, up 10.3–11.8% over 30 days.
⌄
Evidence confidenceMedium
GasNear the top
Little changed
This week
-0.8% to 0.2% 30 days
Up 9.4–15.3%
low 65.81Win-27 · today ●129.93 high
Evidence:
Q2-27, Q3-27, Win-27, Sum-28
ElectricityNear the top
Little changed
This week
-0.6% to 1.6% 30 days
Up 10.3–11.8%
low 74.51Win-27 · today ●108.69 high
Evidence:
Q2-27, Q3-27, Win-27, Sum-28
What this means
Get usage and site details ready, monitor the relevant forward contracts and use indicative quotes to understand the range. No need to force a decision while visibility is adequate.
10–12 monthsAugust–October 2027
Aug 2027Sep 2027Oct 2027
Plan ahead and watch
Gas is -0.8% to 0.2% this week and up 9.4–19.7% over 30 days; electricity -0.6% to 1.5% this week, up 7–11.7% over 30 days.
⌄
Evidence confidenceMedium
GasNear the top
Little changed
This week
-0.8% to 0.2% 30 days
Up 9.4–19.7%
low 65.81Win-27 · today ●129.93 high
Evidence:
Q3-27, Win-27, Sum-28, Win-28
ElectricityNear the top
Little changed
This week
-0.6% to 1.5% 30 days
Up 7–11.7%
low 74.51Win-27 · today ●108.69 high
Evidence:
Q3-27, Win-27, Sum-28, Cal-28
What this means
Plan your procurement timetable and stay informed. Far-dated products can hide seasonal detail, so a firm buy-or-wait instruction would be false precision at this stage.
The honest read
Gas and power are not moving together. That makes any single read of the market less reliable.
And wholesale is only part of a quote — non-energy charges, credit, volume and shape all move the final rate. The practical decision is how much further movement your business can tolerate before its contract deadline.
If prices ease further
Wind, milder weather and diplomacy help
Milder-than-normal temperatures could persist through the winter, keeping heating demand subdued and allowing storage to stretch further. If Chinese demand continues to weaken or Middle East supply normalises fully, both gas and power could ease back toward the lows seen mid-week.
If prices rise again
Low storage leaves little cushion
Wind generation could remain weak through October as the Atlantic system fades, forcing gas-fired generation to step in and tightening system margins just as heating demand begins to rise. If the Strait of Hormuz standoff escalates further or LNG supply remains restricted, prices could climb sharply.
Fixing buys budget certainty. It does not prove that a business has predicted the market correctly.
Market in numbers
The wholesale forward curve
Where the week ended across every contract — kept for readers who want the detail.
Open gas and electricity forward tables Monthly, quarterly, seasonal and annual contracts · week-ending close
View data ⌄
Gas
p/therm
Contract
Price
Day
Week
30d
Nov-26
month
186.53
↑ 1.88%
↓ 2.19%
↑ 2.87%
Dec-26
month
188.40
↑ 1.99%
↓ 2.22%
↑ 3.11%
Jan-27
month
189.29
↑ 1.98%
↓ 2.17%
—
Q1-27
quarter
184.83
↑ 1.99%
↓ 2.01%
↑ 5.00%
Q2-27
quarter
140.19
↑ 2.97%
↓ 0.44%
↑ 15.30%
Q3-27
quarter
128.90
↑ 3.17%
↑ 0.17%
—
Sum-27
season
134.51
↑ 3.06%
↓ 0.15%
↑ 14.95%
Win-27
season
128.83
↑ 2.69%
↓ 0.85%
↑ 13.88%
Sum-28
season
84.45
↑ 2.61%
↓ 0.16%
↑ 9.39%
Win-28
season
91.70
↑ 2.49%
↓ 0.32%
↑ 19.70%
Cal-27
calendar
145.87
↑ 2.65%
↓ 0.81%
↑ 11.52%
Cal-28
calendar
96.59
↑ 2.60%
↓ 0.54%
↑ 10.52%
Cal-29
calendar
78.39
↑ 2.22%
↓ 0.08%
↑ 8.88%
Electricity
£/MWh
Contract
Price
Day
Week
30d
Nov-26
month
152.20
↑ 1.13%
↓ 1.53%
↑ 3.35%
Dec-26
month
150.40
↑ 1.45%
↓ 1.07%
↑ 2.79%
Jan-27
month
160.47
↑ 4.57%
↑ 1.78%
—
Q1-27
quarter
152.71
↑ 1.67%
↓ 0.51%
↑ 6.39%
Q2-27
quarter
111.45
↑ 3.71%
↑ 1.58%
↑ 11.81%
Q3-27
quarter
102.74
↑ 1.24%
↓ 0.65%
—
Sum-27
season
107.07
↑ 2.51%
↑ 0.49%
↑ 10.39%
Win-27
season
108.01
↑ 2.17%
↑ 0.40%
↑ 10.29%
Sum-28
season
72.82
↑ 2.16%
↑ 0.83%
↑ 11.65%
Cal-27
calendar
118.16
↑ 1.38%
↓ 0.61%
↑ 8.20%
Cal-28
calendar
84.30
↑ 3.11%
↑ 1.51%
↑ 6.95%
Cal-29
calendar
73.48
↑ 1.73%
↑ 1.10%
↑ 3.74%
Fixed-term choices
Contract length is a risk decision, not a forecast
No term protects against every outcome. Weigh the certainty the business wants against how soon it is willing to return to the market.
12
months
More flexibility if markets fall, but the business returns to the market sooner.
Shorter budget certainty
Earlier exposure to the next renewal
Useful where flexibility matters most
24
months
A middle ground between price certainty and revisiting the market.
Two-year budgeting
Less frequent procurement
Still allows a medium-term review
36
months
Greater certainty, but a longer commitment if markets later fall.
Tell us your end date and the market moves that matter, and we'll tell you when your target is reached.
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Gas -0.9% w/w, power 0.3% w/w.","gasSignal":"PRICES STABLE","powerSignal":"PRICES STABLE"},"moves":{"daily":{"gas_pct":2.49,"power_pct":2.24},"weekly":{"gas_pct":-0.91,"power_pct":0.28},"monthly":{"gas_pct":10.46,"power_pct":7.56}},"spot":{"gas_price":176.5,"gas_change_pct":null,"power_price":154.4,"power_change_pct":null},"reference":{"contract":"Sum-27","gas_price":134.51,"power_price":107.07,"gas_day_pct":3.065,"gas_week_pct":-0.15,"gas_30d_pct":14.946,"power_day_pct":2.508,"power_week_pct":0.49,"power_30d_pct":10.393},"front_month":{"key":"nov26","label":"Nov-26","gas":{"price":186.53,"day_pct":1.884,"week_pct":-2.19,"m30_pct":2.873,"trend":"rolling_over","streak":{"dir":"up","days":2},"range_30d":{"low":176.53,"high":208.92,"position":0.309},"net_pct":2.9},"power":{"price":152.2,"day_pct":1.13,"week_pct":-1.53,"m30_pct":3.355,"trend":"rolling_over","streak":{"dir":"up","days":2},"range_30d":{"low":145.85,"high":169.22,"position":0.272},"net_pct":3.4}},"windows":[{"key":"nov26","label":"Nov-26","context":"In the next 1–3 months","horizon_rank":0,"is_front":true,"stance":"no_rush","note":"November gas and power both eased 1.5–2.2% on the week and sit in the lower half of their 30-day range. They have risen for two days, but the recent shape shows they peaked earlier and have come off those highs. There is no rush to fix now—the cheaper window that opened mid-week has closed, but prices are not at their month-high. Watch this contract through our daily updates; if it eases again or wind tightens further, that will be worth a decision.","gas":{"price":186.53,"day_pct":1.884,"week_pct":-2.19,"m30_pct":2.873,"trend":"rolling_over","streak":{"dir":"up","days":2},"range_30d":{"low":176.53,"high":208.92,"position":0.309},"net_pct":2.9},"power":{"price":152.2,"day_pct":1.13,"week_pct":-1.53,"m30_pct":3.355,"trend":"rolling_over","streak":{"dir":"up","days":2},"range_30d":{"low":145.85,"high":169.22,"position":0.272},"net_pct":3.4}}],"spotlight":{"contract":"nov26","label":"Nov-26","fuel":"power","metric":"pattern","value":3.355,"dir":"up","trend":"rolling_over","text":"November power has risen 3.4% over the month and sits in the lower half of its range, a pattern that mirrors gas. The week's sharp mid-week dip and subsequent recovery show the market is choppy rather than trending firmly in either direction. For a renewer in this window, the timing of the dip matters: anyone who fixed on Tuesday paid less than they would now, but the move is not so large that waiting costs you significantly if prices ease again."},"narrative":{"headline":"Gas fell hard mid-week, then climbed back; power split across the curve","summary":"Both fuels dropped sharply on Tuesday as Middle East supply fears eased and Chinese demand softened, but near-term contracts recovered by week's end. The week finished with gas mostly higher and power uneven—a reversal pattern that matters for anyone deciding when to fix.","verdict":"Both fuels are easing from their highs but still above where they were a month ago; no rush to fix now, but watch closely as winter demand builds and wind generation tightens.","trend_read":{"gas":"Gas rose through most of September, then fell sharply mid-week before climbing back. It sits in the lower half of its 30-day range and has risen for two days running, but the broader shape shows it peaked earlier and has come off those highs.","power":"Power has followed a similar path—up through September, then a sharp dip mid-week, then partial recovery. It also sits in the lower half of its 30-day range and has risen two days, but the curve is split: near-term contracts eased, whilst longer-dated ones climbed."},"scenario":{"upside":"Wind generation could remain weak through October as the Atlantic system fades, forcing gas-fired generation to step in and tightening system margins just as heating demand begins to rise. If the Strait of Hormuz standoff escalates further or LNG supply remains restricted, prices could climb sharply.","downside":"Milder-than-normal temperatures could persist through the winter, keeping heating demand subdued and allowing storage to stretch further. If Chinese demand continues to weaken or Middle East supply normalises fully, both gas and power could ease back toward the lows seen mid-week."},"drivers":[{"title":"MIDDLE EAST SUPPLY FEARS EASE","body":"Saudi Arabia resumed flows on its East-West pipeline at half capacity on Tuesday, bringing regional crude exports back to 17.5 million barrels per day. The US also announced a Strategic Petroleum Reserve release of up to 40 million barrels. These moves eased the supply risk premium that had built up over the Strait of Hormuz standoff, allowing gas and power prices to fall sharply mid-week.","tone":"down","outlook":"mixed","soWhat":"The immediate supply shock has passed, but the Strait remains under force majeure and QatarEnergy has extended delivery suspensions through early December—watch for any new escalation."},{"title":"CHINESE LNG DEMAND WEAKENS","body":"September Chinese LNG imports fell 8% year-on-year, signalling weaker industrial demand. This eased global LNG market tightness and helped pull European gas prices lower mid-week.","tone":"down","outlook":"fades","soWhat":"Seasonal demand patterns will likely reassert as winter approaches, but near-term weakness has taken some heat out of the market."},{"title":"NORWAY TROLL OUTAGE ENDS","body":"The unplanned compressor outage at Norway's Troll field, which had held 46.2 million cubic metres per day offline, ended on Tuesday. Norwegian exit nominations recovered by over 60 million cubic metres per day from the previous week's lows.","tone":"down","outlook":"sticks","soWhat":"This restores a key supply source as winter approaches, supporting lower prices in the near term."},{"title":"WIND GENERATION COLLAPSES, THEN RECOVERS","body":"Northwest European wind speeds bottomed at 4–6 metres per second on Friday, leaving German wind below 5 GW and forcing sharp increases in thermal generation. An Atlantic weather system then lifted wind output to 15–17 GW across Wednesday and Thursday before it was forecast to collapse again into the weekend. This volatility has driven day-to-day power swings all week.","tone":"up","outlook":"mixed","soWhat":"Wind is forecast to drop sharply from Thursday into next week, tightening system margins and supporting power prices as gas-fired generation steps in."},{"title":"FRENCH NUCLEAR OUTAGES EXTEND","body":"Low river flows on the Meuse have extended the total shutdown at the 3 GW Chooz nuclear plant to 13 October, whilst Cattenom 2 remains curtailed by 1 GW. French nuclear unavailability now stands at 24.1 GW. France turned to net imports for several hours on Thursday, a sign of how constrained supply has become.","tone":"up","outlook":"sticks","soWhat":"These outages will persist through October and support French power prices; watch for any updates on river flows or return dates."},{"title":"UK NUCLEAR OUTAGES DELAY RETURNS","body":"Delayed refuelling outages at Heysham 1 and Hartlepool 2 keep 783 MW of UK nuclear capacity offline into early October.","tone":"up","outlook":"fades","soWhat":"These are temporary; expect returns by mid-October, which will ease UK power prices once they come back online."},{"title":"EUROPEAN STORAGE BELOW SEASONAL NORM","body":"EU gas storage stands at 71.33% of capacity, roughly 15 percentage points below the five-year seasonal average of 87%. Storage levels vary sharply by region: France at 83.23%, Italy at 86.97%, but Germany at 57.74% and the Netherlands at 58.15%. Germany's net storage injections have slowed dramatically, averaging only 13 cubic metres per day in week 39.","tone":"up","outlook":"sticks","soWhat":"Low storage in Germany and the Netherlands will support prices as winter demand builds; milder weather forecasts (5°C above normal in Germany) will help stretch stocks, but watch for any cold snaps."},{"title":"MILD WEATHER FORECAST PERSISTS","body":"Late September warmth peaked this week, with temperatures running 6°C to 11°C above seasonal norms. Forecasts show temperatures will remain mild throughout the coming months: Germany projected 5°C warmer than normal, France 2°C above average. This will delay heating demand and help extend the usefulness of gas storage.","tone":"down","outlook":"fades","soWhat":"Milder weather is supporting lower prices now, but seasonal heating demand will return once temperatures normalise; do not assume this lasts."},{"title":"BRENT CRUDE CLIMBS ON CHINA EXPORT BAN","body":"Brent crude climbed 3% on Thursday as China suspended oil product exports to focus on domestic supply during a period of market tightness. Crude has recovered above $106 per barrel, providing a strength signal across the wider energy complex.","tone":"up","outlook":"mixed","soWhat":"Oil strength can support gas and power sentiment, but the effect is indirect; watch for any reversal in crude if China's export ban 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