Week of 26 Oct – 30 Oct 2026 Latest settlement: 29 October 2026
Weekly review · Week 44 · 26 Oct – 30 Oct 2026
The week in review: gas firmed 10.8%, power firmed 12.5%
A day-by-day recap of how UK gas and electricity moved across the trading week of 26 Oct – 30 Oct 2026, and where that leaves businesses approaching renewal.
Bigger picture
Still high over the six months held
Key risk
Persian gulf lng blockade persists
The week in review
How the week actually moved
Not one day's snapshot — the whole week, day by day. Each line traces the front-month close from Monday to Friday, so you see the shape
of the week, not just where it ended.
Week of 26 Oct – 30 Oct 2026
Natural gas
The week in 5 days · p/therm
↑ 10.78%
vs last week
rose early, eased into Friday · +4.7% Mon→Fri
Week avg
239.38 Week low
230.84 Week high
248.73
low 96.52Fri close · today ●248.73 high
Electricity
The week in 5 days · £/MWh
↑ 12.51%
vs last week
rose early, eased into Friday · +7.9% Mon→Fri
Week avg
190.98 Week low
180.49 Week high
198.54
low 90.16Fri close · today ●198.54 high
What matters
One week rarely changes a renewal decision
The shape:
a week that fell then bounced tells you more than the net number.
Wider view:
the 6-month charts below show whether this week is a blip or a trend.
For buyers:
a good week doesn't reset your deadline — your contract end date still drives urgency.
Biggest move of the weekNov-26
electricity ↑ 11.65%
— the largest week-on-week swing across every contract we track.
Why prices moved
Forces pulling prices in both directions
A balanced view is more useful than a single prediction. These are the main influences in the latest report.
Pressure pulling prices lower
Diplomatic signals ease escalation fears
Reports of renewed diplomatic contact between the US and Iran, and earlier talks in Tehran between senior officials from Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Pakistan and Iran, have provided temporary relief from escalation fears. This easing of geopolitical tension contributed to Thursday's modest retreat in both gas and power prices.
Bbl interconnector flow reversal complete
The BBL interconnector has completed its physical flow reversal towards Great Britain, providing vital import deliverability into the UK at a time when continental supply stress is acute. This is a positive signal for UK supply security, though it reflects the tightness of the broader European market.
Risks that could push prices higher
Persian gulf lng blockade persists
Liquefied natural gas flows through the Strait of Hormuz remain severely disrupted by recurring attacks on commercial shipping and Houthi strikes on regional infrastructure. QatarEnergy has formally extended its force majeure on Edison's 6.4 billion cubic metre per year contract through 30 December, bringing the total of missing cargoes to 38. This creates a structural import shortfall that has prompted the Dutch government to formally update its National Gas Crisis Plan.
Norwegian production offline
Unplanned outages across Norwegian sites — Karstø, Oseberg, Kollsnes, Sleipner, Troll, and Åsgard — have knocked 37–50 million cubic metres per day offline at a critical moment. These outages have tightened upstream pipeline deliverability precisely when European supply is most constrained and storage is at its lowest seasonal level since 2009.
Early winter cold snap forecast
Weather forecasters have raised the probability of a Sudden Stratospheric Warming event in mid to late November to 70%, which would be the earliest such occurrence on record. This development significantly increases the likelihood of an unusually early winter cold snap across Northern and Central Europe in late November and early December — precisely the period when European heating demand peaks.
European storage at multi-year lows
EU aggregate storage capacity stands at 74.89%, the lowest late-October level on record since 2009. Germany lags at 61.73%, the Netherlands at 65.61%, and the UK at just 40.57%, well below the continental average. Storage is now in net withdrawal as heating demand begins.
Renewable generation collapse imminent
An expansive high-pressure system has suppressed wind load factors across Northwest Europe to 3–6%, with German wind forecast to plunge below 3 GW, UK wind below 5 GW, and the Netherlands below 3 GW through early November. This Dunkelflaute pattern — weak winds combined with low daylight and fog — forces reliance on thermal generation at a time when gas is expensive and nuclear capacity is constrained.
French nuclear unavailability elevated
French nuclear capacity offline has been revised upward to an average of 15.1 GW for November — significantly above last year's 13.7 GW — whilst low Rhône river flows have prompted EDF to warn of potential generation restrictions at the Saint-Alban nuclear plant starting Sunday. This reduces available supply precisely when the system needs it most.
6-month direction
Was this week a blip or a trend?
The week-on-week number tells you the direction; these 6-month lines tell you whether it's part of a bigger move. Each tracks a rolling maturity — the near-term price, the next winter and the year ahead — so nothing breaks as contracts roll off. Hover for the value on any day.
Gas forward prices
Rolling maturities · p/therm
Near-term (Nov-26)
Next winter (Win-27)
Year ahead (Cal-27)
Each line is a rolling maturity — the near-term line always follows the current front month, so it never breaks as contracts roll off.
Power forward prices
Rolling maturities · £/MWh
Near-term (Nov-26)
Next winter (Win-27)
Year ahead (Cal-27)
Power tends to track gas; the chart shows how far the recent move has carried.
Your renewal window
Guidance grouped by how soon your contract ends
Timing urgency comes from your deadline; the market view comes from the forward contracts covering each renewal's supply period. Open your band for separate gas and electricity evidence.
Timing and value are different.
Wholesale prices are currently rising. If your contract ends within three months, still get live quotes now — your decision window is shortening. Later renewals have more time to monitor the market.
1–3 monthsNovember 2026–January 2027
Nov 2026Dec 2026Jan 2027
Get live quotes now
Gas is up 3.7–8.3% this week and up 36–38.4% over 30 days; electricity up 2.8–8.5% this week, up 27.7–31.5% over 30 days.
⌄
Evidence confidenceMedium
⚠ December leans on Cal-27 only, so it has less seasonal visibility.
GasNear the top
Rising
This week
Up 3.7–8.3% 30 days
Up 36–38.4%
low 57.84Sum-27 · today ●181.66 high
Evidence:
Dec-26, Q1-27, Sum-27, Win-27, Cal-27
ElectricityNear the top
Rising
This week
Up 2.8–8.5% 30 days
Up 27.7–31.5%
low 59.74Sum-27 · today ●134.89 high
Evidence:
Dec-26, Q1-27, Sum-27, Win-27, Cal-27
What this means
Your deadline creates the urgency. Use the current move to compare live supplier quotes now, but don't treat one falling day as proof the market has reached its bottom.
4–6 monthsFebruary–April 2027
Feb 2027Mar 2027Apr 2027
Review and compare
Gas is up 3.5–7.8% this week and up 31.4–38.4% over 30 days; electricity up 2.5–7.9% this week, up 27.7–31.5% over 30 days.
Start reviewing the market and compare 12-, 24- and 36-month options. You have time for a considered decision, so weigh the certainty each term buys rather than chasing a perfect day.
7–9 monthsMay–July 2027
May 2027Jun 2027Jul 2027
Prepare and monitor
Gas is up 3.5–5.5% this week and up 31.4–37.9% over 30 days; electricity up 2.5–4.5% this week, up 27.7–30.9% over 30 days.
⌄
Evidence confidenceMedium
GasNear the top
Rising
This week
Up 3.5–5.5% 30 days
Up 31.4–37.9%
low 65.81Win-27 · today ●172.12 high
Evidence:
Q2-27, Q3-27, Win-27, Sum-28
ElectricityNear the top
Rising
This week
Up 2.5–4.5% 30 days
Up 27.7–30.9%
low 74.51Win-27 · today ●134.46 high
Evidence:
Q2-27, Q3-27, Win-27, Sum-28
What this means
Get usage and site details ready, monitor the relevant forward contracts and use indicative quotes to understand the range. No need to force a decision while visibility is adequate.
10–12 monthsAugust–October 2027
Aug 2027Sep 2027Oct 2027
Plan ahead and watch
Gas is up 3.5–5.5% this week and up 31.4–36.7% over 30 days; electricity up 2.5–4.5% this week, up 24–27.7% over 30 days.
⌄
Evidence confidenceMedium
GasNear the top
Rising
This week
Up 3.5–5.5% 30 days
Up 31.4–36.7%
low 65.81Win-27 · today ●172.12 high
Evidence:
Q3-27, Win-27, Sum-28, Win-28
ElectricityNear the top
Rising
This week
Up 2.5–4.5% 30 days
Up 24–27.7%
low 74.51Win-27 · today ●134.46 high
Evidence:
Q3-27, Win-27, Sum-28, Cal-28
What this means
Plan your procurement timetable and stay informed. Far-dated products can hide seasonal detail, so a firm buy-or-wait instruction would be false precision at this stage.
The honest read
Gas and power are not moving together. That makes any single read of the market less reliable.
And wholesale is only part of a quote — non-energy charges, credit, volume and shape all move the final rate. The practical decision is how much further movement your business can tolerate before its contract deadline.
If prices ease further
Wind, milder weather and diplomacy help
If diplomatic efforts between the US and Iran succeed in de-escalating tensions and the Strait of Hormuz reopens to normal traffic, liquefied natural gas flows could resume within weeks. Combined with milder weather or a delayed cold snap, this could ease the supply tightness and allow prices to ease back from current levels.
If prices rise again
Low storage leaves little cushion
If the Sudden Stratospheric Warming event materialises and the early winter cold snap arrives in late November as forecast, heating demand will spike sharply just as gas supply remains constrained by Middle East disruption and Norwegian outages. Prices could push significantly higher.
Fixing buys budget certainty. It does not prove that a business has predicted the market correctly.
Market in numbers
The wholesale forward curve
Where the week ended across every contract — kept for readers who want the detail.
Open gas and electricity forward tables Monthly, quarterly, seasonal and annual contracts · week-ending close
View data ⌄
Gas
p/therm
Contract
Price
Day
Week
30d
Nov-26
month
241.65
↓ 2.85%
↑ 8.86%
↑ 36.89%
Dec-26
month
243.20
↓ 2.84%
↑ 8.34%
↑ 36.31%
Jan-27
month
244.44
↓ 2.77%
↑ 8.23%
—
Q1-27
quarter
238.45
↓ 2.85%
↑ 7.84%
↑ 36.05%
Q2-27
quarter
183.94
↓ 2.71%
↑ 3.85%
↑ 37.90%
Q3-27
quarter
170.53
↓ 2.18%
↑ 3.46%
—
Sum-27
season
177.20
↓ 2.46%
↑ 3.66%
↑ 38.37%
Win-27
season
169.53
↓ 1.50%
↑ 4.15%
↑ 36.71%
Sum-28
season
107.42
↓ 1.06%
↑ 5.49%
↑ 31.40%
Win-28
season
110.92
↓ 0.59%
↑ 4.43%
—
Cal-27
calendar
190.94
↓ 2.38%
↑ 5.02%
↑ 37.33%
Cal-28
calendar
123.05
↓ 1.08%
↑ 4.89%
↑ 31.77%
Cal-29
calendar
91.42
↑ 0.35%
↑ 4.55%
↑ 19.85%
Electricity
£/MWh
Contract
Price
Day
Week
30d
Nov-26
month
194.66
↓ 1.95%
↑ 11.65%
↑ 33.47%
Dec-26
month
187.17
↓ 1.98%
↑ 8.49%
↑ 30.34%
Jan-27
month
202.10
↓ 1.92%
↑ 7.73%
—
Q1-27
quarter
191.90
↓ 2.07%
↑ 7.86%
↑ 31.52%
Q2-27
quarter
138.25
↓ 1.58%
↑ 3.03%
↑ 30.92%
Q3-27
quarter
128.78
↓ 0.46%
↑ 2.46%
—
Sum-27
season
133.49
↓ 1.04%
↑ 2.76%
↑ 29.98%
Win-27
season
133.94
↓ 0.39%
↑ 3.29%
↑ 27.71%
Sum-28
season
86.65
↓ 0.73%
↑ 4.46%
—
Cal-27
calendar
147.19
↓ 1.21%
↑ 4.12%
↑ 28.66%
Cal-28
calendar
100.79
↓ 0.69%
↑ 4.27%
↑ 23.97%
Cal-29
calendar
81.05
↓ 0.37%
↑ 3.91%
↑ 12.80%
Fixed-term choices
Contract length is a risk decision, not a forecast
No term protects against every outcome. Weigh the certainty the business wants against how soon it is willing to return to the market.
12
months
More flexibility if markets fall, but the business returns to the market sooner.
Shorter budget certainty
Earlier exposure to the next renewal
Useful where flexibility matters most
24
months
A middle ground between price certainty and revisiting the market.
Two-year budgeting
Less frequent procurement
Still allows a medium-term review
36
months
Greater certainty, but a longer commitment if markets later fall.
Tell us your end date and the market moves that matter, and we'll tell you when your target is reached.
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{"schema":"1.4","as_of":"2026-10-30","settlement_date":"2026-10-29","signal":{"colour":"red","reason":"Gas and power both rising week-on-week. Gas 5.6% w/w, power 5.3% w/w.","gasSignal":"PRICES RISING","powerSignal":"PRICES RISING"},"moves":{"daily":{"gas_pct":-1.92,"power_pct":-1.2},"weekly":{"gas_pct":5.6,"power_pct":5.34},"monthly":{"gas_pct":34.26,"power_pct":27.71}},"spot":{"gas_price":241.77,"gas_change_pct":null,"power_price":202.2,"power_change_pct":null},"reference":{"contract":"Sum-27","gas_price":177.2,"power_price":133.49,"gas_day_pct":-2.455,"gas_week_pct":3.656,"gas_30d_pct":38.373,"power_day_pct":-1.038,"power_week_pct":2.756,"power_30d_pct":29.981},"front_month":{"key":"nov26","label":"Nov-26","gas":{"price":241.65,"day_pct":-2.846,"week_pct":8.861,"m30_pct":36.889,"trend":"rising","streak":{"dir":"down","days":1},"range_30d":{"low":176.53,"high":248.73,"position":0.902},"net_pct":36.9},"power":{"price":194.66,"day_pct":-1.954,"week_pct":11.655,"m30_pct":33.466,"trend":"rising","streak":{"dir":"down","days":1},"range_30d":{"low":145.85,"high":198.54,"position":0.926},"net_pct":33.5}},"windows":[{"key":"nov26","label":"Nov-26","context":"In the next 1–3 months","horizon_rank":0,"is_front":true,"stance":"review","note":"Both gas and power are now at or within a whisker of the highest levels in the records we hold, having climbed 36.9% and 33.5% respectively over the past 30 days. The week's path — a sharp rise to Wednesday's peak followed by Thursday's modest retreat — shows the market is volatile and sentiment-driven. If you renew in November or December, you are fixing at the top of the range; if you can defer, the next 1–2 weeks may offer clarity as geopolitical risk settles and the early winter weather forecast becomes clearer.","gas":{"price":241.65,"day_pct":-2.846,"week_pct":8.861,"m30_pct":36.889,"trend":"rising","streak":{"dir":"down","days":1},"range_30d":{"low":176.53,"high":248.73,"position":0.902},"net_pct":36.9},"power":{"price":194.66,"day_pct":-1.954,"week_pct":11.655,"m30_pct":33.466,"trend":"rising","streak":{"dir":"down","days":1},"range_30d":{"low":145.85,"high":198.54,"position":0.926},"net_pct":33.5}}],"spotlight":{"contract":"nov26","label":"Nov-26","fuel":"gas","metric":"30d","value":36.889,"dir":"up","trend":"rising","text":"Gas Nov-26 has climbed 36.9% over the past 30 days and now sits at 241.65p/therm — at the highest level in our records. The week saw it surge to 248.73p/therm on Wednesday before easing back, but the overall trend is firmly upward. The cheaper window that existed a month ago has closed; anyone renewing now pays significantly more than they would have in late September."},"narrative":{"headline":"Gas and power both climbed hard this week; both now sit near their highest levels.","summary":"A broad rally across 13 gas and 12 power contracts was driven by Middle East supply disruption, Norwegian outages, and the prospect of an early winter cold snap. Both fuels peaked on Wednesday and eased slightly on Thursday, but remain elevated. Near-term renewers are now looking at prices well above where they stood a month ago.","verdict":"If you renew in November or December, you are fixing at or near the top of the range we hold; if you can wait, watching the market through early November may offer a clearer picture as geopolitical risk settles.","trend_read":{"gas":"Gas has climbed steadily over the past 30 days and sits near its highest level in our records. This week it rose to a peak on Wednesday and eased back on Thursday, but the overall path is upward — the cheaper window that existed a month ago has closed.","power":"Power has also climbed steadily over the past 30 days and sits near its highest level. It followed gas up to a peak on Wednesday, then eased on Thursday, but the 30-day trend is firmly upward — prices are now well above where they stood a month back."},"scenario":{"upside":"If the Sudden Stratospheric Warming event materialises and the early winter cold snap arrives in late November as forecast, heating demand will spike sharply just as gas supply remains constrained by Middle East disruption and Norwegian outages. Prices could push significantly higher.","downside":"If diplomatic efforts between the US and Iran succeed in de-escalating tensions and the Strait of Hormuz reopens to normal traffic, liquefied natural gas flows could resume within weeks. Combined with milder weather or a delayed cold snap, this could ease the supply tightness and allow prices to ease back from current levels."},"drivers":[{"title":"PERSIAN GULF LNG BLOCKADE PERSISTS","body":"Liquefied natural gas flows through the Strait of Hormuz remain severely disrupted by recurring attacks on commercial shipping and Houthi strikes on regional infrastructure. QatarEnergy has formally extended its force majeure on Edison's 6.4 billion cubic metre per year contract through 30 December, bringing the total of missing cargoes to 38. This creates a structural import shortfall that has prompted the Dutch government to formally update its National Gas Crisis Plan.","tone":"up","outlook":"sticks","soWhat":"This is a structural supply loss, not a temporary outage; it will keep upward pressure on prices until the route reopens."},{"title":"NORWEGIAN PRODUCTION OFFLINE","body":"Unplanned outages across Norwegian sites — Karstø, Oseberg, Kollsnes, Sleipner, Troll, and Åsgard — have knocked 37–50 million cubic metres per day offline at a critical moment. These outages have tightened upstream pipeline deliverability precisely when European supply is most constrained and storage is at its lowest seasonal level since 2009.","tone":"up","outlook":"mixed","soWhat":"Unplanned outages are typically temporary, but their timing — during peak heating season and low storage — amplifies their impact."},{"title":"EARLY WINTER COLD SNAP FORECAST","body":"Weather forecasters have raised the probability of a Sudden Stratospheric Warming event in mid to late November to 70%, which would be the earliest such occurrence on record. This development significantly increases the likelihood of an unusually early winter cold snap across Northern and Central Europe in late November and early December — precisely the period when European heating demand peaks.","tone":"up","outlook":"sticks","soWhat":"If the cold snap arrives as forecast, heating demand will spike just as gas supply is tightest; this supports higher prices through the winter."},{"title":"EUROPEAN STORAGE AT MULTI-YEAR LOWS","body":"EU aggregate storage capacity stands at 74.89%, the lowest late-October level on record since 2009. Germany lags at 61.73%, the Netherlands at 65.61%, and the UK at just 40.57%, well below the continental average. Storage is now in net withdrawal as heating demand begins.","tone":"up","outlook":"sticks","soWhat":"Low storage means less buffer for supply disruptions and less flexibility to meet demand spikes; it will keep prices elevated through the winter."},{"title":"RENEWABLE GENERATION COLLAPSE IMMINENT","body":"An expansive high-pressure system has suppressed wind load factors across Northwest Europe to 3–6%, with German wind forecast to plunge below 3 GW, UK wind below 5 GW, and the Netherlands below 3 GW through early November. This Dunkelflaute pattern — weak winds combined with low daylight and fog — forces reliance on thermal generation at a time when gas is expensive and nuclear capacity is constrained.","tone":"up","outlook":"fades","soWhat":"The low-wind pattern is temporary, but it will keep power prices elevated and gas demand high over the next 7–10 days."},{"title":"FRENCH NUCLEAR UNAVAILABILITY ELEVATED","body":"French nuclear capacity offline has been revised upward to an average of 15.1 GW for November — significantly above last year's 13.7 GW — whilst low Rhône river flows have prompted EDF to warn of potential generation restrictions at the Saint-Alban nuclear plant starting Sunday. This reduces available supply precisely when the system needs it most.","tone":"up","outlook":"mixed","soWhat":"High nuclear unavailability in France reduces interconnector export capacity to the UK and keeps continental power prices elevated."},{"title":"DIPLOMATIC SIGNALS EASE ESCALATION FEARS","body":"Reports of renewed diplomatic contact between the US and Iran, and earlier talks in Tehran between senior officials from Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Pakistan and Iran, have provided temporary relief from escalation fears. This easing of geopolitical tension contributed to Thursday's modest retreat in both gas and power prices.","tone":"down","outlook":"mixed","soWhat":"Diplomatic progress is fragile; markets remain alert to the risk of renewed escalation, which could push prices sharply higher again."},{"title":"BBL INTERCONNECTOR FLOW REVERSAL COMPLETE","body":"The BBL interconnector has completed its physical flow reversal towards Great Britain, providing vital import deliverability into the UK at a time when continental supply stress is acute. This is a positive signal for UK supply security, though it reflects the tightness of the broader European market.","tone":"down","outlook":"sticks","soWhat":"The reversal helps the UK, but it also signals that continental supply is so tight that the Netherlands is now importing rather than 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