Bigger picture
Still high over the six months held
Key risk
Middle east shipping attacks intensify
The month in review
How the month actually moved
Not one day's snapshot — the whole month, week by week. Each point is the front-month's average for that week, so you see the shape
of the month, not just where it ended.
Month of October 2026
Natural gas
The month in weeks · p/therm
↑ 11.46%
vs last month
rose through the month · +31.8% across the month
Month avg
211.60 Month low
183.08 Month high
248.73
low 96.52Month close · today ●248.73 high
Electricity
The month in weeks · £/MWh
↑ 9.29%
vs last month
rose through the month · +29.9% across the month
Month avg
169.08 Month low
149.23 Month high
198.54
low 90.16Month close · today ●198.54 high
What matters
One month rarely changes a renewal decision
The shape:
a month that fell then bounced tells you more than the net number.
Wider view:
the 6-month charts below show whether this month is part of a longer trend.
For buyers:
a good month doesn't reset your deadline — your contract end date still drives urgency.
Biggest move of the monthSum-27
gas ↑ 38.37%
— the largest 30-day swing across every contract we track.
Why prices moved
Forces pulling prices in both directions
A balanced view is more useful than a single prediction. These are the main influences in the latest report.
Pressure pulling prices lower
Uk jackdaw field approved for production
The UK government approved production from the Jackdaw gas field in the North Sea in late October, expected to boost domestic gas output by around 6% at peak production. First gas could arrive as early as the end of October, providing modest supply relief.
Bbl interconnector reverses toward uk
The BBL pipeline completed a physical flow reversal toward Great Britain on 29 October, signalling that continental supply stress had reached the point where the Netherlands needed to import gas from the UK rather than export. This reversal provided vital import deliverability into the UK at a critical moment.
Risks that could push prices higher
Middle east shipping attacks intensify
Throughout October, attacks on commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz and Red Sea escalated sharply. Houthi forces seized the Bab el-Mandeb strait early in the month; by late October, at least 18 vessels had been struck by projectiles, and Iran's Revolutionary Guard claimed responsibility for striking tankers and warned of further action. QatarEnergy extended its force majeure on Edison's 6.4 bcm/yr contract through 30 December, removing 38 cargoes from the market.
Us-iran escalation risk peaks
Reports in late October indicated that the US urged Gulf allies to prepare for potential renewed military strikes against Iran following the midterm elections. Trump administration officials briefed military options to the president; Israeli and US militaries reportedly drew up strike plans. These developments dashed earlier optimism from regional diplomatic talks and added a sharp risk premium to energy prices.
Norwegian production outages tighten supply
Unplanned maintenance at multiple Norwegian fields (Dvalin, Heidrun, Oseberg, Åsgard, Karstø, Kollsnes, Sleipner) knocked between 37 and 50 million cubic metres per day offline at various points in October. By late month, these outages had reduced Dutch border flows to just 11 mcm/d and tightened upstream deliverability at a critical moment as heating demand was about to rise.
European storage falls to 2009 lows
EU gas storage ended October at 74.89–74.96% capacity, the lowest late-October level recorded since 2009. The UK was particularly constrained at 40–41%, Germany lagged at 61%, and injection rates slowed sharply as the month progressed. Storage is now tracking to miss even the revised 80% November target.
Early winter cold spell forecast
Weather forecasters raised the probability of a Sudden Stratospheric Warming event in mid to late November to 70%, which would be the earliest on record. This pattern would drive an unusually early and intense cold snap across Northern and Central Europe in late November and early December—precisely when heating demand peaks and supply is most constrained.
Renewable generation collapses into november
An expansive high-pressure system settled over Northwest Europe by late October, creating Dunkelflaute conditions—weak wind, low solar, and dense fog. German wind was forecast to plunge below 3 GW, UK wind below 5 GW, and Dutch wind below 3 GW through early November. This renewable shortfall arrives as heating demand is rising and gas-fired generation must fill the gap.
French nuclear unavailability widens
EDF revised French nuclear unavailability upward to an average of 15.1 GW for November—significantly above last year's 13.7 GW. Low river flows on the Meuse and Rhône have constrained cooling water and extended outages. The 1.5 GW Chooz 2 unit is not scheduled to return until after mid-November.
6-month direction
Was this month a blip or a trend?
The month-on-month number tells you the direction; these 6-month lines tell you whether it's part of a bigger move. Each tracks a rolling maturity — the near-term price, the next winter and the year ahead — so nothing breaks as contracts roll off. Hover for the value on any day.
Gas forward prices
Rolling maturities · p/therm
Near-term (Nov-26)
Next winter (Win-27)
Year ahead (Cal-27)
Each line is a rolling maturity — the near-term line always follows the current front month, so it never breaks as contracts roll off.
Power forward prices
Rolling maturities · £/MWh
Near-term (Nov-26)
Next winter (Win-27)
Year ahead (Cal-27)
Power tends to track gas; the chart shows how far the recent move has carried.
Your renewal window
Guidance grouped by how soon your contract ends
Timing urgency comes from your deadline; the market view comes from the forward contracts covering each renewal's supply period. Open your band for separate gas and electricity evidence.
Timing and value are different.
Wholesale prices are currently rising. If your contract ends within three months, still get live quotes now — your decision window is shortening. Later renewals have more time to monitor the market.
1–3 monthsNovember 2026–January 2027
Nov 2026Dec 2026Jan 2027
Get live quotes now
Gas is up 3.7–8.3% this week and up 36–38.4% over 30 days; electricity up 2.8–8.5% this week, up 27.7–31.5% over 30 days.
⌄
Evidence confidenceMedium
⚠ December leans on Cal-27 only, so it has less seasonal visibility.
GasNear the top
Rising
This week
Up 3.7–8.3% 30 days
Up 36–38.4%
low 57.84Sum-27 · today ●181.66 high
Evidence:
Dec-26, Q1-27, Sum-27, Win-27, Cal-27
ElectricityNear the top
Rising
This week
Up 2.8–8.5% 30 days
Up 27.7–31.5%
low 59.74Sum-27 · today ●134.89 high
Evidence:
Dec-26, Q1-27, Sum-27, Win-27, Cal-27
What this means
Your deadline creates the urgency. Use the current move to compare live supplier quotes now, but don't treat one falling day as proof the market has reached its bottom.
4–6 monthsFebruary–April 2027
Feb 2027Mar 2027Apr 2027
Review and compare
Gas is up 3.5–7.8% this week and up 31.4–38.4% over 30 days; electricity up 2.5–7.9% this week, up 27.7–31.5% over 30 days.
Start reviewing the market and compare 12-, 24- and 36-month options. You have time for a considered decision, so weigh the certainty each term buys rather than chasing a perfect day.
7–9 monthsMay–July 2027
May 2027Jun 2027Jul 2027
Prepare and monitor
Gas is up 3.5–5.5% this week and up 31.4–37.9% over 30 days; electricity up 2.5–4.5% this week, up 27.7–30.9% over 30 days.
⌄
Evidence confidenceMedium
GasNear the top
Rising
This week
Up 3.5–5.5% 30 days
Up 31.4–37.9%
low 65.81Win-27 · today ●172.12 high
Evidence:
Q2-27, Q3-27, Win-27, Sum-28
ElectricityNear the top
Rising
This week
Up 2.5–4.5% 30 days
Up 27.7–30.9%
low 74.51Win-27 · today ●134.46 high
Evidence:
Q2-27, Q3-27, Win-27, Sum-28
What this means
Get usage and site details ready, monitor the relevant forward contracts and use indicative quotes to understand the range. No need to force a decision while visibility is adequate.
10–12 monthsAugust–October 2027
Aug 2027Sep 2027Oct 2027
Plan ahead and watch
Gas is up 3.5–5.5% this week and up 31.4–36.7% over 30 days; electricity up 2.5–4.5% this week, up 24–27.7% over 30 days.
⌄
Evidence confidenceMedium
GasNear the top
Rising
This week
Up 3.5–5.5% 30 days
Up 31.4–36.7%
low 65.81Win-27 · today ●172.12 high
Evidence:
Q3-27, Win-27, Sum-28, Win-28
ElectricityNear the top
Rising
This week
Up 2.5–4.5% 30 days
Up 24–27.7%
low 74.51Win-27 · today ●134.46 high
Evidence:
Q3-27, Win-27, Sum-28, Cal-28
What this means
Plan your procurement timetable and stay informed. Far-dated products can hide seasonal detail, so a firm buy-or-wait instruction would be false precision at this stage.
The honest read
Gas and power are not moving together. That makes any single read of the market less reliable.
And wholesale is only part of a quote — non-energy charges, credit, volume and shape all move the final rate. The practical decision is how much further movement your business can tolerate before its contract deadline.
If prices ease further
Wind, milder weather and diplomacy help
A de-escalation in Middle East tensions, restoration of QatarEnergy flows, and recovery of Norwegian production could ease supply pressure and allow prices to drift lower, especially if the forecast cold snap fails to materialise or proves milder than expected.
If prices rise again
Low storage leaves little cushion
An early, severe cold snap in late November (driven by the forecast Sudden Stratospheric Warming event) combined with continued geopolitical disruption to LNG flows could push gas and power prices significantly higher, particularly if Norwegian outages persist or new supply disruptions emerge.
Fixing buys budget certainty. It does not prove that a business has predicted the market correctly.
Market in numbers
The wholesale forward curve
Where the month ended across every contract — kept for readers who want the detail.
Open gas and electricity forward tables Monthly, quarterly, seasonal and annual contracts · month-ending close
View data ⌄
Gas
p/therm
Contract
Price
Day
Week
30d
Nov-26
month
241.65
↓ 2.85%
↑ 8.86%
↑ 36.89%
Dec-26
month
243.20
↓ 2.84%
↑ 8.34%
↑ 36.31%
Jan-27
month
244.44
↓ 2.77%
↑ 8.23%
—
Q1-27
quarter
238.45
↓ 2.85%
↑ 7.84%
↑ 36.05%
Q2-27
quarter
183.94
↓ 2.71%
↑ 3.85%
↑ 37.90%
Q3-27
quarter
170.53
↓ 2.18%
↑ 3.46%
—
Sum-27
season
177.20
↓ 2.46%
↑ 3.66%
↑ 38.37%
Win-27
season
169.53
↓ 1.50%
↑ 4.15%
↑ 36.71%
Sum-28
season
107.42
↓ 1.06%
↑ 5.49%
↑ 31.40%
Win-28
season
110.92
↓ 0.59%
↑ 4.43%
—
Cal-27
calendar
190.94
↓ 2.38%
↑ 5.02%
↑ 37.33%
Cal-28
calendar
123.05
↓ 1.08%
↑ 4.89%
↑ 31.77%
Cal-29
calendar
91.42
↑ 0.35%
↑ 4.55%
↑ 19.85%
Electricity
£/MWh
Contract
Price
Day
Week
30d
Nov-26
month
194.66
↓ 1.95%
↑ 11.65%
↑ 33.47%
Dec-26
month
187.17
↓ 1.98%
↑ 8.49%
↑ 30.34%
Jan-27
month
202.10
↓ 1.92%
↑ 7.73%
—
Q1-27
quarter
191.90
↓ 2.07%
↑ 7.86%
↑ 31.52%
Q2-27
quarter
138.25
↓ 1.58%
↑ 3.03%
↑ 30.92%
Q3-27
quarter
128.78
↓ 0.46%
↑ 2.46%
—
Sum-27
season
133.49
↓ 1.04%
↑ 2.76%
↑ 29.98%
Win-27
season
133.94
↓ 0.39%
↑ 3.29%
↑ 27.71%
Sum-28
season
86.65
↓ 0.73%
↑ 4.46%
—
Cal-27
calendar
147.19
↓ 1.21%
↑ 4.12%
↑ 28.66%
Cal-28
calendar
100.79
↓ 0.69%
↑ 4.27%
↑ 23.97%
Cal-29
calendar
81.05
↓ 0.37%
↑ 3.91%
↑ 12.80%
Fixed-term choices
Contract length is a risk decision, not a forecast
No term protects against every outcome. Weigh the certainty the business wants against how soon it is willing to return to the market.
12
months
More flexibility if markets fall, but the business returns to the market sooner.
Shorter budget certainty
Earlier exposure to the next renewal
Useful where flexibility matters most
24
months
A middle ground between price certainty and revisiting the market.
Two-year budgeting
Less frequent procurement
Still allows a medium-term review
36
months
Greater certainty, but a longer commitment if markets later fall.
Tell us your end date and the market moves that matter, and we'll tell you when your target is reached.
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{"schema":"1.4","as_of":"2026-10-30","settlement_date":"2026-10-29","signal":{"colour":"red","reason":"Gas and power both rising week-on-week. Gas 5.6% w/w, power 5.3% w/w.","gasSignal":"PRICES RISING","powerSignal":"PRICES RISING"},"moves":{"daily":{"gas_pct":-1.92,"power_pct":-1.2},"weekly":{"gas_pct":5.6,"power_pct":5.34},"monthly":{"gas_pct":34.26,"power_pct":27.71}},"spot":{"gas_price":241.77,"gas_change_pct":null,"power_price":202.2,"power_change_pct":null},"reference":{"contract":"Sum-27","gas_price":177.2,"power_price":133.49,"gas_day_pct":-2.455,"gas_week_pct":3.656,"gas_30d_pct":38.373,"power_day_pct":-1.038,"power_week_pct":2.756,"power_30d_pct":29.981},"front_month":{"key":"nov26","label":"Nov-26","gas":{"price":241.65,"day_pct":-2.846,"week_pct":8.861,"m30_pct":36.889,"trend":"rising","streak":{"dir":"down","days":1},"range_30d":{"low":176.53,"high":248.73,"position":0.902},"net_pct":36.9},"power":{"price":194.66,"day_pct":-1.954,"week_pct":11.655,"m30_pct":33.466,"trend":"rising","streak":{"dir":"down","days":1},"range_30d":{"low":145.85,"high":198.54,"position":0.926},"net_pct":33.5}},"windows":[{"key":"nov26","label":"Nov-26","context":"In the next 1–3 months","horizon_rank":0,"is_front":true,"stance":"review","note":"Nov-26 gas and power are both sitting at or within a whisker of the highest levels in the records we hold, having climbed 37% and 34% respectively over the month. The market has repriced sharply higher due to geopolitical risk and supply tightness; anyone renewing now locks in prices near four-year highs. Review live options immediately — not because prices will spike further, but because the buying environment has deteriorated significantly and waiting is unlikely to offer better terms.","gas":{"price":241.65,"day_pct":-2.846,"week_pct":8.861,"m30_pct":36.889,"trend":"rising","streak":{"dir":"down","days":1},"range_30d":{"low":176.53,"high":248.73,"position":0.902},"net_pct":36.9},"power":{"price":194.66,"day_pct":-1.954,"week_pct":11.655,"m30_pct":33.466,"trend":"rising","streak":{"dir":"down","days":1},"range_30d":{"low":145.85,"high":198.54,"position":0.926},"net_pct":33.5}}],"spotlight":{"contract":"nov26","label":"Nov-26","fuel":"gas","metric":"30d","value":36.889,"dir":"up","trend":"rising","text":"Nov-26 gas climbed 36.9% over October, a broad-based rally driven by Middle East tensions, Norwegian outages, and storage at 2009 lows. The month opened around 176p/therm and closed at 241.65p/therm — a move that reflects a fundamental repricing of the market, not a temporary spike. This is the most expensive the contract has been in nearly four years."},"narrative":{"headline":"October saw gas and power prices climb 37% and 34% respectively — a month of escalating geopolitical risk and tightening supply.","summary":"The month opened with mild weather and sideways trading but shifted sharply mid-month as Middle East tensions intensified, Norwegian outages tightened supply, and storage fell to multi-year lows. By month-end, both fuels were trading near four-year highs. Anyone renewing now pays significantly more than they would have a month ago.","verdict":"October closed with gas and power at their most expensive in years; the buying environment deteriorated sharply from start to finish, and there is no sign of relief ahead.","trend_read":{"gas":"Gas rose steadily throughout October, climbing 37% over the month and sitting near its 30-day high. The shape was consistently upward, with only brief pullbacks; the month began around 176p/therm and closed at 241.65p/therm, reflecting a market repricing under geopolitical pressure and supply tightness.","power":"Power climbed 34% over October and also sits near its 30-day high. The month followed a similar upward path to gas, starting around 145 £/MWh and closing at 194.66 £/MWh, driven by the same fuel-cost pressures and renewable generation shortfalls."},"scenario":{"upside":"An early, severe cold snap in late November (driven by the forecast Sudden Stratospheric Warming event) combined with continued geopolitical disruption to LNG flows could push gas and power prices significantly higher, particularly if Norwegian outages persist or new supply disruptions emerge.","downside":"A de-escalation in Middle East tensions, restoration of QatarEnergy flows, and recovery of Norwegian production could ease supply pressure and allow prices to drift lower, especially if the forecast cold snap fails to materialise or proves milder than expected."},"drivers":[{"title":"MIDDLE EAST SHIPPING ATTACKS INTENSIFY","body":"Throughout October, attacks on commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz and Red Sea escalated sharply. Houthi forces seized the Bab el-Mandeb strait early in the month; by late October, at least 18 vessels had been struck by projectiles, and Iran's Revolutionary Guard claimed responsibility for striking tankers and warned of further action. QatarEnergy extended its force majeure on Edison's 6.4 bcm/yr contract through 30 December, removing 38 cargoes from the market.","tone":"up","outlook":"sticks","soWhat":"Physical LNG flows through the Strait remain severely disrupted, running roughly 80% below pre-war levels; this supply loss is structural and will persist as long as regional tensions remain unresolved."},{"title":"US-IRAN ESCALATION RISK PEAKS","body":"Reports in late October indicated that the US urged Gulf allies to prepare for potential renewed military strikes against Iran following the midterm elections. Trump administration officials briefed military options to the president; Israeli and US militaries reportedly drew up strike plans. These developments dashed earlier optimism from regional diplomatic talks and added a sharp risk premium to energy prices.","tone":"up","outlook":"mixed","soWhat":"The risk of major supply disruption remains acute; any escalation could further restrict LNG flows and push prices higher, though diplomatic channels remain open."},{"title":"NORWEGIAN PRODUCTION OUTAGES TIGHTEN SUPPLY","body":"Unplanned maintenance at multiple Norwegian fields (Dvalin, Heidrun, Oseberg, Åsgard, Karstø, Kollsnes, Sleipner) knocked between 37 and 50 million cubic metres per day offline at various points in October. By late month, these outages had reduced Dutch border flows to just 11 mcm/d and tightened upstream deliverability at a critical moment as heating demand was about to rise.","tone":"up","outlook":"fades","soWhat":"Norwegian outages are typically temporary; however, the timing—coinciding with geopolitical supply loss and early-season demand—amplified price pressure."},{"title":"EUROPEAN STORAGE FALLS TO 2009 LOWS","body":"EU gas storage ended October at 74.89–74.96% capacity, the lowest late-October level recorded since 2009. The UK was particularly constrained at 40–41%, Germany lagged at 61%, and injection rates slowed sharply as the month progressed. Storage is now tracking to miss even the revised 80% November target.","tone":"up","outlook":"sticks","soWhat":"Low storage leaves the market with minimal buffer against supply disruption and forces reliance on steady pipeline and LNG imports; any shortfall will be felt acutely."},{"title":"EARLY WINTER COLD SPELL FORECAST","body":"Weather forecasters raised the probability of a Sudden Stratospheric Warming event in mid to late November to 70%, which would be the earliest on record. This pattern would drive an unusually early and intense cold snap across Northern and Central Europe in late November and early December—precisely when heating demand peaks and supply is most constrained.","tone":"up","outlook":"mixed","soWhat":"An early, severe cold spell would push heating demand sharply higher at a time when storage is low and geopolitical supply is disrupted; this is the upside risk to prices over the coming weeks."},{"title":"RENEWABLE GENERATION COLLAPSES INTO NOVEMBER","body":"An expansive high-pressure system settled over Northwest Europe by late October, creating Dunkelflaute conditions—weak wind, low solar, and dense fog. German wind was forecast to plunge below 3 GW, UK wind below 5 GW, and Dutch wind below 3 GW through early November. This renewable shortfall arrives as heating demand is rising and gas-fired generation must fill the gap.","tone":"up","outlook":"fades","soWhat":"Weak renewables force higher gas-for-power demand; however, this weather pattern is temporary and should ease once the high-pressure system moves away."},{"title":"FRENCH NUCLEAR UNAVAILABILITY WIDENS","body":"EDF revised French nuclear unavailability upward to an average of 15.1 GW for November—significantly above last year's 13.7 GW. Low river flows on the Meuse and Rhône have constrained cooling water and extended outages. The 1.5 GW Chooz 2 unit is not scheduled to return until after mid-November.","tone":"up","outlook":"mixed","soWhat":"Reduced French nuclear capacity forces higher reliance on gas-fired generation across Europe and adds structural support to power prices."},{"title":"UK JACKDAW FIELD APPROVED FOR PRODUCTION","body":"The UK government approved production from the Jackdaw gas field in the North Sea in late October, expected to boost domestic gas output by around 6% at peak production. First gas could arrive as early as the end of October, providing modest supply relief.","tone":"down","outlook":"fades","soWhat":"Jackdaw is a positive for UK supply but marginal in scale; it will not offset the geopolitical and storage headwinds driving prices higher."},{"title":"BBL INTERCONNECTOR REVERSES TOWARD UK","body":"The BBL pipeline completed a physical flow reversal toward Great Britain on 29 October, signalling that continental supply stress had reached the point where the Netherlands needed to import gas from the UK rather than export. This reversal provided vital import deliverability into the UK at a critical moment.","tone":"down","outlook":"sticks","soWhat":"BBL reversal confirms continental tightness but provides the UK with an additional import route; however, it also signals that European supply is under severe 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