Will the US midterms change UK energy prices?
Perhaps indirectly. Here’s what’s really moving them.
Democrats have won control of both houses of the US Congress, and a lot of our clients have asked what that means for their energy bills. UK wholesale prices were already falling before the votes were counted, and they fell again on the first trading day after. Commentary says the result may point to a softer US stance on Iran, but it’s one factor among several. On the first day after the result, Calendar 2027 gas fell 4.3% and electricity 3.3%, on top of the 12.1% and 8.7% they had already lost.
Market update · Prices from SEFE daily settlements · Updated 5 November 2026
A change in Washington.
One factor for UK energy.
When the new Congress takes office in January 2027, it will have more influence over US energy laws, funding and oversight. But the things moving UK gas and electricity prices this autumn are mostly happening in Europe and the Middle East, not on Capitol Hill.
What changed
Democrats control the House and the Senate from January 2027. The President keeps his veto and his powers over foreign policy, so sweeping change is unlikely. Many analysts expect more deadlock than reform.
How it could reach the UK
Through US gas exports, policy towards Iran and the Middle East, and oil and currency markets. Markets can react to news on any of these within a day. Changes to actual supply take months or years.
What’s moving prices now
Hopes of a US–Iran deal, easier passage through the Strait of Hormuz and falling oil are pulling prices down. Norwegian outages, falling gas storage, cold weather and low wind are holding them up.
Prices fell before the result.
Then they fell again.
UK wholesale gas and electricity peaked at the 30 October settlement, then fell on 2 and 3 November. US polls closed after UK markets had settled on 3 November, so none of that was a reaction to the result. They fell again on 4 November, the first trading day after it.
| Contract | 30 Oct peak |
3 Nov election day |
4 Nov after result |
Change before result |
Change after result |
Total since peak |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gas · pence per therm | ||||||
| Q1 2027 (Jan–Mar) | 252.19 | 221.86 | 213.51 | −12.0% | −3.8% | −15.3% |
| Summer 2027 | 184.45 | 161.87 | 154.33 | −12.2% | −4.7% | −16.3% |
| Winter 2027/28 | 174.50 | 154.75 | 148.41 | −11.3% | −4.1% | −15.0% |
| Calendar 2027 | 199.37 | 175.34 | 167.81 | −12.1% | −4.3% | −15.8% |
| Electricity · £ per MWh | ||||||
| Q1 2027 (Jan–Mar) | 200.96 | 181.93 | 176.36 | −9.5% | −3.1% | −12.2% |
| Summer 2027 | 137.44 | 125.15 | 121.16 | −8.9% | −3.2% | −11.8% |
| Winter 2027/28 | 136.63 | 124.78 | 120.00 | −8.7% | −3.8% | −12.2% |
| Calendar 2027 | 152.03 | 138.75 | 134.16 | −8.7% | −3.3% | −11.8% |
Smart Energy’s stored SEFE daily settlement prices, also shown on our Market Desk ↗. These are historical prices from the week of the election. For today’s prices, see the Market Desk.
Partly, perhaps, but most of the fall came first. Market commentary links the 4 November move mainly to growing hopes of a US–Iran deal, easier passage through the Strait of Hormuz and a sharp fall in oil. It also says the midterm result may point to a softer US stance on Iran. Any effect so far looks to be through Iran rather than through US energy policy.
October was the most expensive month of 2026 for wholesale energy, and prices are still well above where the year started. Norwegian outages, falling gas storage, cold weather and low wind are already limiting the fall, and hopes of a deal can fade as quickly as they grew.
Markets react fast.
Supply changes slowly.
Wholesale prices can move within a trading session when expectations change. What takes months or years is any real change to how much gas and power is produced and shipped. These are the three routes to watch.
1. US gas exports
The US is now one of Europe’s biggest sources of liquefied natural gas (LNG). Individual approvals for export terminals and pipelines mostly sit with federal agencies, not Congress. But Congress shapes the laws, funding and oversight around them. Any sign of slower future US supply could nudge forward prices quickly, even though new terminals take years to build.
2. Iran and the Middle East
Disruption to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has been one of the biggest drivers of energy prices this year. Foreign policy stays mostly with the President, but markets can still read an election as a signal: commentary after the result said it may point to a softer US stance on Iran. Hopes of a deal can take risk out of prices within days, and a setback could put it back just as quickly.
3. Oil, the dollar and the pound
Energy is traded globally, often in dollars. A weaker dollar or a stronger pound can make imports a little cheaper for UK buyers, and oil prices still feed into gas through some long-term contracts. These are usually small, indirect effects on a UK business price.
What it doesn’t do
It doesn’t change UK network charges, policy costs or how your supplier prices your contract. Those are set in Britain, and some are rising regardless. Transmission charges are forecast to rise again from April 2027 ↗
It depends on
your end date.
Headlines move markets for a day. What reaches your bill is the price on the day you agree your next contract.
On a fully fixed contract
Wholesale market moves generally won’t change your agreed rates during the contract. Some contracts do let certain charges vary, such as network costs, so it’s worth checking your terms.
Renewing in the next year
Suppliers price new contracts from the forward prices for your supply period. That’s why the falls in the table matter more to you than any headline: they’re the prices your next quote is built on.
On a flexible or pass-through contract
You may feel wholesale moves sooner, up or down, depending on how your contract is set up. Check the terms, or send them to us and we’ll tell you how exposed you are.
Should you wait for prices to fall further?
Waiting only helps if prices fall before you have to sign, and no one can promise that. If your contract ends soon, see what’s available now. If it ends later, set an alert so you hear when the market moves by an amount that matters to you.
You can’t control the markets.
You can control your timing.
Two separate routes, depending on how soon your contract ends.
“What can we get today?”
We compare live prices from 28+ UK suppliers for your end date and show you the options side by side. There’s no obligation to go ahead.
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Good questions.
Clear answers.
Will my energy bill go down because of the election?
Why did UK prices fall this week?
Could the election push prices up instead?
Do wholesale prices make up my whole bill?
Is this a good time to fix?
Sources & checking dates
Updated 5 November 2026. UK prices are Smart Energy’s stored SEFE daily settlement prices. Market drivers are from Smart Energy’s source-checked summary of SEFE’s commentary, 5 November 2026. Election position as reported on 4 November 2026; some results were still being declared. General market information, not a forecast or a recommendation to enter a particular contract.
