{ "schema": "1.4", "as_of": "2026-07-17", "settlement_date": "2026-07-16", "signal": { "action": "QUOTE NOW", "colour": "red", "reason": "Gas and power both rising week-on-week. Gas 7.2% w/w, power 6.5% w/w.", "gasSignal": "PRICES RISING", "powerSignal": "PRICES RISING" }, "moves": { "daily": { "gas_pct": -2.03, "power_pct": -0.76 }, "weekly": { "gas_pct": 7.19, "power_pct": 6.46 }, "monthly": { "gas_pct": 17.99, "power_pct": 13.62 } }, "spot": { "gas_price": 131.8, "gas_change_pct": null, "power_price": 124.67, "power_change_pct": null }, "reference": { "contract": "Sum-27", "gas_price": 93.15, "power_price": 82.73, "gas_day_pct": -2.102, "gas_week_pct": 8.5, "gas_30d_pct": 15.959, "power_day_pct": -1.41, "power_week_pct": 6.13, "power_30d_pct": 8.144 }, "front_month": { "key": "aug26", "label": "Aug-26", "gas": { "price": 131.98, "day_pct": -4.196, "week_pct": 9.23, "m30_pct": 31.993, "trend": "rising", "streak": { "dir": "up", "days": 4 }, "range_30d": { "low": 96.47, "high": 131.98, "position": 1 }, "net_pct": 32 }, "power": { "price": 112.5, "day_pct": -1.704, "week_pct": 8.8, "m30_pct": 24.695, "trend": "rising", "streak": { "dir": "down", "days": 1 }, "range_30d": { "low": 88, "high": 112.8, "position": 0.988 }, "net_pct": 24.7 } }, "windows": [ { "key": "aug26", "label": "Aug-26", "context": "In the next 1–3 months", "horizon_rank": 0, "is_front": true, "stance": "review", "note": "Aug-26 gas and power have both climbed 9% this week and now sit near their month's highs after a sustained four-day rally. Prices are elevated and the recent direction is firmly upward; if you renew in the next 1–3 months, it is worth reviewing live options now to understand where the market stands, rather than waiting for a fall that may not come.", "gas": { "price": 131.98, "day_pct": -4.196, "week_pct": 9.23, "m30_pct": 31.993, "trend": "rising", "streak": { "dir": "up", "days": 4 }, "range_30d": { "low": 96.47, "high": 131.98, "position": 1 }, "net_pct": 32 }, "power": { "price": 112.5, "day_pct": -1.704, "week_pct": 8.8, "m30_pct": 24.695, "trend": "rising", "streak": { "dir": "down", "days": 1 }, "range_30d": { "low": 88, "high": 112.8, "position": 0.988 }, "net_pct": 24.7 } }, { "key": "win26", "label": "Win-26", "context": "Into winter 2026", "horizon_rank": 1, "is_front": false, "stance": "review", "note": "Winter-26 contracts have climbed 9.4% (gas) and 8% (power) this week and sit near month's highs. Winter pricing is particularly sensitive to storage progress and geopolitical risk; reviewing your options now is prudent, as further supply disruptions could push prices even higher heading into the cold months.", "gas": { "price": 133.86, "day_pct": -3.698, "week_pct": 9.45, "m30_pct": 27.328, "trend": "rising", "streak": { "dir": "up", "days": 4 }, "range_30d": { "low": 102.03, "high": 133.86, "position": 1 }, "net_pct": 27.3 }, "power": { "price": 115.29, "day_pct": -0.27, "week_pct": 7.95, "m30_pct": 19.682, "trend": "rising", "streak": { "dir": "down", "days": 1 }, "range_30d": { "low": 94.07, "high": 115.6, "position": 0.986 }, "net_pct": 19.7 } }, { "key": "sum27", "label": "Sum-27", "context": "Next summer (2027)", "horizon_rank": 2, "is_front": false, "stance": "review", "note": "Summer-27 has climbed 8.5% (gas) and 6.1% (power) this week and sits near its month's high after falling earlier in July and then recovering. The recent direction is upward, and prices are elevated; a review of your options is sensible before committing to a longer-dated contract at these levels.", "gas": { "price": 93.15, "day_pct": -2.102, "week_pct": 8.5, "m30_pct": 15.959, "trend": "rebound", "streak": { "dir": "down", "days": 1 }, "range_30d": { "low": 78.53, "high": 93.97, "position": 0.947 }, "net_pct": 16 }, "power": { "price": 82.73, "day_pct": -1.41, "week_pct": 6.13, "m30_pct": 8.144, "trend": "rebound", "streak": { "dir": "down", "days": 1 }, "range_30d": { "low": 74.88, "high": 83.91, "position": 0.869 }, "net_pct": 8.1 } }, { "key": "cal27", "label": "Cal-27", "context": "A full year (2027)", "horizon_rank": 3, "is_front": false, "stance": "review", "note": "Calendar-27 has risen 8.3% (gas) and 6.5% (power) this week and now sits near its month's high. The 12-month contract is also climbing steadily; whilst it is further out, the underlying drivers (geopolitical risk, tighter LNG, storage concerns) are likely to persist into next year. Worth reviewing now to lock in certainty if you are comfortable with current levels.", "gas": { "price": 102.39, "day_pct": -0.71, "week_pct": 8.3, "m30_pct": 18.233, "trend": "rising", "streak": { "dir": "down", "days": 1 }, "range_30d": { "low": 84.59, "high": 103.12, "position": 0.961 }, "net_pct": 18.2 }, "power": { "price": 90.13, "day_pct": -0.99, "week_pct": 6.53, "m30_pct": 11.162, "trend": "rising", "streak": { "dir": "down", "days": 1 }, "range_30d": { "low": 79.69, "high": 91.03, "position": 0.921 }, "net_pct": 11.2 } }, { "key": "cal28", "label": "Cal-28", "context": "Two years out (2028)", "horizon_rank": 4, "is_front": false, "stance": "review", "note": "Calendar-28 is further out and has moved more modestly this week (up 3% for gas, 3.4% for power), sitting near its month's high. The longer-dated contract is less volatile and offers less urgency, but it too has climbed on the back of structural supply concerns. Keep watching through our free daily updates; there is no need to act immediately, but stay informed as the market evolves.", "gas": { "price": 72.92, "day_pct": -0.91, "week_pct": 2.99, "m30_pct": 4.41, "trend": "rebound", "streak": { "dir": "down", "days": 1 }, "range_30d": { "low": 68.55, "high": 73.59, "position": 0.867 }, "net_pct": 4.4 }, "power": { "price": 70.54, "day_pct": -0.89, "week_pct": 3.36, "m30_pct": 4.118, "trend": "rising", "streak": { "dir": "down", "days": 1 }, "range_30d": { "low": 67.51, "high": 71.17, "position": 0.828 }, "net_pct": 4.1 } } ], "spotlight": { "contract": "aug26", "label": "Aug-26", "fuel": "gas", "metric": "30d", "value": 31.993, "dir": "up", "trend": "rising", "text": "Aug-26 gas has surged 32% over the past month and 9.2% this week alone, now trading at 131.98 p/therm near its month's high. This is the most liquid contract and the one most directly affecting near-term renewals; the sharp climb reflects a genuine tightening of global supply and geopolitical risk that is likely to persist through the summer and into autumn." }, "narrative": { "headline": "Gas and power surge 9% on geopolitical strain and supply tightness", "summary": "This week, both fuels climbed sharply as Middle East tensions and reduced LNG availability tightened global supply. Prices now sit near their month's highs, and the market is signalling caution for renewals.", "verdict": "If you renew in the next 1–3 months, prices are elevated and climbing; if you can wait beyond winter, watching the market closely is prudent before committing.", "trend_read": { "gas": "Gas has kept climbing steadily across the month, rising 32% overall, and this week alone gained 9.2%. It now sits near the month's high, having pushed up four days in a row before easing slightly at week's end.", "power": "Power has followed a similar path, up 24.7% across the month and 8.8% this week. It too sits near its month's high, though it eased back slightly in the final day after a strong run." }, "scenario": { "upside": "If Middle East tensions escalate further or a major LNG facility unexpectedly shuts, global supply could tighten sharply, pushing prices significantly higher across the curve.", "downside": "If geopolitical tensions ease, LNG shipments resume normal flow, and European storage builds accelerate, the risk premium could fade and prices could ease back towards earlier July levels." }, "drivers": [ { "title": "MIDDLE EAST TENSIONS INTENSIFY", "body": "US military strikes on Iranian targets and attacks on commercial shipping in the Red Sea have slowed LNG vessel movements through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for global gas exports. This has reduced the flow of cargoes into Europe at a time when the continent is actively refilling storage ahead of winter.", "tone": "up", "outlook": "sticks", "soWhat": "This geopolitical premium is likely to persist as long as tensions remain unresolved; any further escalation could push prices higher still." }, { "title": "GLOBAL LNG SUPPLY TIGHTENS", "body": "The Freeport LNG export facility in the US remains offline, reducing global spare capacity. At the same time, Asian demand is beginning to strengthen, intensifying competition for available cargoes and squeezing European buyers. Norwegian production has also fallen back to around 294 mcm/day following process issues at the Asgard field.", "tone": "up", "outlook": "sticks", "soWhat": "With limited spare LNG globally and Europe needing to rebuild storage, the market will likely need higher prices to secure the volumes required before winter." }, { "title": "EUROPEAN STORAGE BELOW SEASONAL NORM", "body": "Although injection activity is progressing steadily, current inventory levels remain below their historical average for this stage of the refill season. Substantial volumes still need to be built over the coming months to meet winter demand.", "tone": "up", "outlook": "sticks", "soWhat": "Any disruption to LNG arrivals or a slowdown in injection rates could tighten the market further and push prices higher." }, { "title": "FRENCH NUCLEAR CONSTRAINED BY HEAT", "body": "Elevated river temperatures have forced output reductions at several French nuclear reactors, as environmental regulations restrict the temperature of cooling water discharged back into waterways. This loss of baseload capacity increases reliance on gas-fired generation.", "tone": "up", "outlook": "fades", "soWhat": "If temperatures moderate, nuclear output may recover and ease some of the upward pressure on power; if heat persists, power prices may stay elevated." }, { "title": "WARM WEATHER LIFTS COOLING DEMAND", "body": "Above-average temperatures across Europe are driving increased electricity demand through higher air conditioning and cooling loads. At the same time, wind generation has been variable, reducing renewable output and increasing reliance on thermal generation.", "tone": "up", "outlook": "fades", "soWhat": "Seasonal relief is likely once temperatures normalise; for now, watch the weather forecasts for any sign of a cooldown." } ] }, "contracts": [ { "key": "aug26", "label": "Aug-26", "new_in_curve": false, "gas_price": 131.98, "gas_day_pct": -4.196, "gas_week_pct": 9.23, "gas_30d_pct": 31.993, "power_price": 112.5, "power_day_pct": -1.704, "power_week_pct": 8.8, "power_30d_pct": 24.695, "history": { "gas": [ 99.99, 100.3, 97.07, 101.3, 100.09, 100.46, 97.52, 96.47, 97.8, 102.56, 104.45, 101.69, 104.51, 107.64, 104.61, 110.75, 116.7, 120.83, 117.19, 124.15, 128.15, 130.88, 131.98 ], "power": [ 90.22, 90, 88.8, 91.74, 90.38, 90, 88.48, 88, 89.05, 92.96, 95.13, 92.85, 94.37, 96.58, 95.5, 98.43, 101.48, 103.4, 102.15, 107.98, 110.36, 112.8, 112.5 ] }, "gas_trend": "rising", "gas_range_30d": { "low": 96.47, "high": 131.98, "position": 1 }, "gas_streak": { "dir": "up", "days": 4 }, "power_trend": "rising", "power_range_30d": { "low": 88, "high": 112.8, "position": 0.988 }, "power_streak": { "dir": "down", "days": 1 } }, { "key": "sep26", "label": "Sep-26", "new_in_curve": false, "gas_price": 132.6, "gas_day_pct": -4.087, "gas_week_pct": 9.25, "gas_30d_pct": 30.243, "power_price": 112.68, "power_day_pct": -0.41, "power_week_pct": 7.5, "power_30d_pct": 21.685 }, { "key": "oct26", "label": "Oct-26", "new_in_curve": false, "gas_price": 132.51, "gas_day_pct": -4.159, "gas_week_pct": 8.97, "gas_30d_pct": null, "power_price": 110.62, "power_day_pct": -0.13, "power_week_pct": 8.75, "power_30d_pct": null }, { "key": "q426", "label": "Q4-26", "new_in_curve": false, "gas_price": 135.6, "gas_day_pct": -4, "gas_week_pct": 9.3, "gas_30d_pct": 28.154, "power_price": 116.67, "power_day_pct": -0.19, "power_week_pct": 7.65, "power_30d_pct": 19.588 }, { "key": "q127", "label": "Q1-27", "new_in_curve": false, "gas_price": 132.09, "gas_day_pct": 0.29, "gas_week_pct": 9.6, "gas_30d_pct": 26.462, "power_price": 113.87, "power_day_pct": -0.35, "power_week_pct": 8.27, "power_30d_pct": 19.788 }, { "key": "q227", "label": "Q2-27", "new_in_curve": false, "gas_price": 96.53, "gas_day_pct": -0.71, "gas_week_pct": 8.72, "gas_30d_pct": null, "power_price": 84.91, "power_day_pct": -1.37, "power_week_pct": 6.38, "power_30d_pct": null }, { "key": "win26", "label": "Win-26", "new_in_curve": false, "gas_price": 133.86, "gas_day_pct": -3.698, "gas_week_pct": 9.45, "gas_30d_pct": 27.328, "power_price": 115.29, "power_day_pct": -0.27, "power_week_pct": 7.95, "power_30d_pct": 19.682, "history": { "gas": [ 105.13, 105.57, 103.11, 106.95, 106.02, 106.07, 103.56, 102.03, 102.94, 106.67, 108.86, 106.76, 108.8, 110.97, 109.02, 114.76, 120.24, 122.31, 118.75, 125.25, 130.08, 133.27, 133.86 ], "power": [ 96.33, 95.84, 95.42, 97.94, 96.61, 95.79, 94.48, 94.07, 94.77, 96.8, 98.6, 96.96, 98.21, 99.6, 98.77, 102.32, 104.9, 106.79, 104.55, 108.96, 112.83, 115.6, 115.29 ] }, "gas_trend": "rising", "gas_range_30d": { "low": 102.03, "high": 133.86, "position": 1 }, "gas_streak": { "dir": "up", "days": 4 }, "power_trend": "rising", "power_range_30d": { "low": 94.07, "high": 115.6, "position": 0.986 }, "power_streak": { "dir": "down", "days": 1 } }, { "key": "sum27", "label": "Sum-27", "new_in_curve": false, "gas_price": 93.15, "gas_day_pct": -2.102, "gas_week_pct": 8.5, "gas_30d_pct": 15.959, "power_price": 82.73, "power_day_pct": -1.41, "power_week_pct": 6.13, "power_30d_pct": 8.144, "gas_trend": "rebound", "gas_range_30d": { "low": 78.53, "high": 93.97, "position": 0.947 }, "gas_streak": { "dir": "down", "days": 1 }, "power_trend": "rebound", "power_range_30d": { "low": 74.88, "high": 83.91, "position": 0.869 }, "power_streak": { "dir": "down", "days": 1 } }, { "key": "win27", "label": "Win-27", "new_in_curve": false, "gas_price": 91.26, "gas_day_pct": -1.871, "gas_week_pct": 5.59, "gas_30d_pct": 10.981, "power_price": 83.94, "power_day_pct": -1.02, "power_week_pct": 5, "power_30d_pct": 6.957 }, { "key": "sum28", "label": "Sum-28", "new_in_curve": false, "gas_price": 64.87, "gas_day_pct": -0.79, "gas_week_pct": 2.35, "gas_30d_pct": 2.707, "power_price": null, "power_day_pct": null, "power_week_pct": null, "power_30d_pct": null }, { "key": "cal27", "label": "Cal-27", "new_in_curve": false, "gas_price": 102.39, "gas_day_pct": -0.71, "gas_week_pct": 8.3, "gas_30d_pct": 18.233, "power_price": 90.13, "power_day_pct": -0.99, "power_week_pct": 6.53, "power_30d_pct": 11.162, "history": { "gas": [ 86.6, 86.61, 85.73, 87.84, 87.07, 87.16, 85.55, 84.59, 84.78, 86.29, 87.27, 85.88, 86.71, 87.7, 86.56, 89.17, 92.66, 94.55, 93.14, 97.52, 100.84, 103.12, 102.39 ], "power": [ 81.08, 80.96, 81.03, 82.47, 81.36, 80.53, 79.69, 79.73, 80, 80.35, 81.11, 80.39, 80.78, 81.44, 81.16, 82.18, 83.68, 84.6, 83.89, 86.67, 88.96, 91.03, 90.13 ] }, "gas_trend": "rising", "gas_range_30d": { "low": 84.59, "high": 103.12, "position": 0.961 }, "gas_streak": { "dir": "down", "days": 1 }, "power_trend": "rising", "power_range_30d": { "low": 79.69, "high": 91.03, "position": 0.921 }, "power_streak": { "dir": "down", "days": 1 } }, { "key": "cal28", "label": "Cal-28", "new_in_curve": false, "gas_price": 72.92, "gas_day_pct": -0.91, "gas_week_pct": 2.99, "gas_30d_pct": 4.41, "power_price": 70.54, "power_day_pct": -0.89, "power_week_pct": 3.36, "power_30d_pct": 4.118, "history": { "gas": [ 69.84, 70.33, 70.09, 71.17, 70.22, 70.35, 69.74, 69.22, 69.54, 69.67, 69.44, 68.92, 69.26, 69.12, 68.55, 69.18, 70.05, 70.81, 70.31, 71.54, 72.82, 73.59, 72.92 ], "power": [ 67.75, 68.22, 68.48, 69.09, 68.47, 67.82, 67.71, 67.8, 67.92, 67.63, 67.56, 67.55, 67.51, 67.83, 67.67, 67.69, 67.89, 68.26, 68.21, 69.17, 70.04, 71.17, 70.54 ] }, "gas_trend": "rebound", "gas_range_30d": { "low": 68.55, "high": 73.59, "position": 0.867 }, "gas_streak": { "dir": "down", "days": 1 }, "power_trend": "rising", "power_range_30d": { "low": 67.51, "high": 71.17, "position": 0.828 }, "power_streak": { "dir": "down", "days": 1 } }, { "key": "cal29", "label": "Cal-29", "new_in_curve": false, "gas_price": 63.94, "gas_day_pct": 0.59, "gas_week_pct": 1.19, "gas_30d_pct": 1.412, "power_price": 65.82, "power_day_pct": -0.37, "power_week_pct": 1.21, "power_30d_pct": 0.381 } ] }