Smart Energy Insights
Energy Insights
Thomas McGlynn • 13 July 2026

Weekly Energy Market Report: 6th - 10th July 2026

Smart Energy
Weekly Energy Briefing · UK
Week in review
6 Jul – 10 Jul 2026
This week's read

Gas and power both climbed sharply this week on Middle East tensions

Aug-26 gas rose 15.6% and power 9.6% as geopolitical risk and summer heat drove demand higher. Both contracts now sit near their month's high, and two near-term renewal windows have moved into review territory.

Gas · Front month
Today's market mood
120.83 p/th
Day ↑ 3.0%
Week ↑ 15.6%
Month ↑ 2.8%
Power · Front month
Today's market mood
£103.40 /MWh
Day ↑ 1.9%
Week ↑ 9.6%
Month ↑ 4.7%
Front month is the market's mood gauge — the freshest, most-traded price. It's not what most contracts price off: your renewal is built from the season or year you're entering. Find yours below.
This week's range

Where prices sat this week

The front-month contract's low, average and high across the week — and how the average compares with the week before.

Gas front-month
Low 104.61p
Average 112.11p
High 120.83p
Avg vs prior week +9.7%
Power front-month
Low £95.50
Average £99.08
High £103.40
Avg vs prior week +6.7%
The bottom line

What this means for your renewal

There's no single "energy price" — a supplier prices your contract off the season or year it covers. Open the row that matches when your current deal ends.

If you renew in the next three months, the recent climb means prices are worth reviewing now — not because they'll spike further, but because you're seeing a real move and should understand your options before committing.

In the next 1–3 months Aug-26 Worth reviewing now ›
Aug-26 gas and power have both climbed sharply this week and now sit near their month's high, driven by geopolitical risk and summer heat. The stance is review because the recent direction is against a renewer — prices are elevated — and it's worth understanding your options now if you're due to renew in the next 1–3 months, rather than waiting to see if they climb further.
Into winter 2026 Win-26 Worth reviewing now ›
Win-26 gas and power have also climbed this week and sit near their month's high, though the moves are slightly smaller than Aug-26 (gas +12.4%, power +8.7%). The stance is review for the same reason: prices have moved materially, and if you're renewing into winter 2026, it's prudent to review live quotes now to understand where the market is pricing your risk.
Next summer (2027) Sum-27 Worth reviewing now ›
Sum-27 gas and power have edged up this week but remain relatively stable on a 30-day view (gas +0.8%, power +0.3%), sitting in the upper half of the month's range. The stance is review because the recent direction is upward, but the moves are modest and the contract is far-dated enough that there is no urgency — keep an eye on it through our free daily updates, and we'll flag if the picture changes.
A full year (2027) Cal-27 Monitor closely ›
Cal-27 gas and power have climbed this week and sit near their month's high, though the 30-day moves are small (gas +0.8%, power +0.4%). The stance is monitor because the contract is 12+ months out and the underlying trend is mixed — prices are up this week but have barely moved over the month. There is nothing to do yet; keep watching through our daily briefings so you'll be told if the picture shifts.
Two years out (2028) Cal-28 Monitor closely ›
Cal-28 gas and power have drifted up this week but remain broadly flat over the month (gas -0.7%, power +1.6%), sitting in the upper half of the range. The stance is monitor because the contract is two years out and the direction is unclear — prices are up this week but gas is actually slightly down on the month. Nothing to act on yet; stay informed through our free daily updates.
The market in numbers

Wholesale forward prices

The rates suppliers build your contract from — your all-in business rate sits above these, once network charges, levies and standing charges are added. Settlement: 9 July 2026.

↑ rising ↓ falling day / week / month vs prior
Gas spot 121.50p /therm
Contract p/therm Day Week Month
Aug-26 front 120.83 +3.0 +15.6 +2.8
Win-26 122.31 +2.8 +12.4 +1.1
Sum-27 85.86 +0.7 +8.2 +0.8
Cal-27 94.55 +2.0 +9.0 +0.8
Full forward curve
Sep-26 121.37 +2.9 +14.5 +1.8
Oct-26 121.60 +2.8 +13.7 —
Q4-26 124.06 +2.7 +13.1 +1.2
Q1-27 120.51 +1.7 +11.8 +0.9
Q2-27 88.79 +2.2 +8.6 —
Win-27 86.43 +2.5 +6.5 +0.6
Sum-28 63.38 +0.5 +1.0 -1.5
Cal-28 70.81 +1.1 +2.2 -0.7
Cal-29 63.19 +0.4 +0.2 -1.6
What the last 30 days show

Gas fell earlier in the month, then climbed back sharply this week; it now sits near the month's high. The recovery has been steady, with three consecutive days of gains pushing Aug-26 to 120.83 p/therm.

Aug-26 Q4-26 Win-26
Front month, quarter & season · last 30 trading days (p/therm)
Power spot £118.02 /MWh
Contract £/MWh Day Week Month
Aug-26 front 103.40 +1.9 +9.6 +4.7
Win-26 106.79 +1.8 +8.7 +2.8
Sum-27 77.95 +0.7 +3.6 +0.3
Cal-27 84.60 +1.1 +4.8 +0.4
Full forward curve
Sep-26 104.82 +2.4 +10.4 +2.7
Oct-26 101.72 +2.0 +9.0 —
Q4-26 108.38 +2.0 +9.3 +2.7
Q1-27 105.17 +1.6 +8.1 +2.8
Q2-27 79.82 +0.8 +4.2 —
Win-27 79.95 +1.1 +2.6 +0.7
Sum-28 — — — —
Cal-28 68.26 +0.5 +1.1 +1.6
Cal-29 65.04 -0.2 -0.0 +0.2
What the last 30 days show

Power dropped earlier in the month, then recovered strongly this week; it now sits near the month's high. The climb has been consistent, with Aug-26 power at 103.4 £/MWh after a 4.7% gain over 30 days.

Aug-26 Q4-26 Win-26
Front month, quarter & season · last 30 trading days (£/MWh)
These are wholesale forwards — the commodity your contract is built from. Your unit rate adds network charges, government levies, standing charges and margin on top, so it always sits well above the figures here.
Why prices moved

Behind this week's move

What's moving the market — and, honestly, whether each is likely to stick or fade.

MIDDLE EAST ESCALATION

Military tensions in the Strait of Hormuz escalated sharply this week after attacks on commercial vessels, including an LNG tanker, followed by US airstrikes and Iranian retaliation against US bases. Brent crude moved to a two-week high of $76.07/bbl, and traders are pricing a geopolitical risk premium into near-term gas and power contracts. About one-fifth of global LNG trade passes through the Strait, making any disruption a material concern for UK buyers.

Stick or fade? Could go either way. This risk premium is real but may ease if tensions de-escalate; watch for shipping updates and political developments over the coming weeks.

SUMMER HEATWAVE DRIVING DEMAND

Temperatures across Europe and the UK are running significantly above seasonal norms, pushing cooling demand higher and driving gas-fired power generation. UK gas demand spiked to 97 mcm/d mid-week, and power burn for cooling is sustaining elevated electricity consumption. This heatwave is also constraining French nuclear output due to high river temperatures affecting cooling systems.

Stick or fade? Likely temporary. Summer heat is temporary; as seasonal warmth normalises in late July or August, this demand driver will ease, which may ease pressure on both fuels.

WEAK WIND GENERATION

Wind speeds across northwest Europe have fallen well below seasonal normal this week, reducing renewable output at precisely the moment when cooling demand is high. UK wind metered output dropped to 2.5–3 GW, forcing greater reliance on gas-fired generation to maintain system security. This shift in the generation mix towards thermal plant has kept power prices supported.

Stick or fade? Could go either way. Wind patterns can shift quickly; if speeds recover, renewable output will rise and ease the pressure on gas and power.

EUROPEAN STORAGE STILL BELOW YEAR-AGO LEVELS

European storage is now at roughly 51% full following summer injections, but remains about 10% below the same point last year. The current heatwave and weaker LNG flows are constraining the pace of refill, and the forward curve is disincentivising aggressive storage building because fourth-quarter prices sit at a premium to first-quarter.

Stick or fade? Likely to persist. Low storage relative to last year will likely keep a structural bid under gas prices through the injection season; any supply disruption could trigger sharp repricing.

ASIAN LNG DEMAND REMAINS ROBUST

Strong cooling demand in Asia is pulling flexible LNG cargoes eastward, tightening the availability of spot volumes that might otherwise flow to Europe. This sustained competition for global LNG is limiting the pace of new supply arriving into European markets.

Stick or fade? Likely to persist. Asian demand is structural; expect continued competition for LNG cargoes, which will keep a floor under European gas prices.
The honest read

Should you be doing anything?

Over the past month, both gas and power fell in early July, then turned back up from around 6–7 July onwards. Gas has now recovered to near its month's high, whilst power sits at its highest point in 30 days. The shape is the same for both: a dip followed by a steady climb. This matters for renewers because it means prices have moved materially in a week, and the near-term windows (Aug-26 and Win-26) are now sitting at elevated levels — not necessarily unsustainable, but high enough that a review of your options is prudent if you're due to renew soon.

↓ If it eases

If Middle East tensions ease, wind speeds recover across northwest Europe, or temperatures normalise, the geopolitical and weather-driven premiums could unwind, allowing both fuels to ease back towards their early-month lows.

↑ If it holds

If geopolitical tensions persist or widen (for example, further attacks on shipping or a broader regional conflict), the risk premium could deepen, pushing Aug-26 gas and power materially higher over the coming weeks.

Fixing is buying certainty, not making a bet — and we won't stampede you into a spike. If the picture genuinely shifts for a contract on your dates, you'll hear it from us plainly, and in time to act.

Ready to understand your options? If you're renewing gas or power in the next three months, the week's climb means prices are worth reviewing now — not to rush a decision, but to see where the market is and what certainty would cost you. Get a live quote and compare it against the risk of waiting.

Check a live quote → Or call 0151 459 3388 · Independent broker since 2014
Settlement: 9 July 2026 · Commentary: 10 July 2026 · Source: ICE Endex / SEFE daily report.
Figures are wholesale forwards; your business rate will be higher. General market commentary, not advice — verify before acting on it.

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