Smart Energy Insights
Energy Insights
Thomas McGlynn • 27 July 2026

Weekly Energy Market Report: 20th - 24th July 2026

Smart Energy
Weekly Energy Briefing · UK
Week in review
20 Jul – 24 Jul 2026
This week's read

Gas and power surge 12–14% on geopolitical risk and tight supply

Both fuels climbed sharply this week as Middle East tensions and below-average EU storage pushed prices to near their monthly highs. Near-term contracts carry a heavy premium; longer-dated ones have risen more modestly.

Gas · Front month
Today's market mood
149.45 p/th
Day ↓ 1.3%
Week ↑ 13.2%
Month ↑ 48.8%
Power · Front month
Today's market mood
£125.69 /MWh
Day ↓ 0.1%
Week ↑ 11.7%
Month ↑ 39.7%
Front month is the market's mood gauge — the freshest, most-traded price. It's not what most contracts price off: your renewal is built from the season or year you're entering. Find yours below.
This week's range

Where prices sat this week

The front-month contract's low, average and high across the week — and how the average compares with the week before.

Gas front-month
Low 138.75p
Average 145.13p
High 151.43p
Avg vs prior week +14.8%
Power front-month
Low £114.72
Average £121.63
High £125.84
Avg vs prior week +11.4%
The bottom line

What this means for your renewal

There's no single "energy price" — a supplier prices your contract off the season or year it covers. Open the row that matches when your current deal ends.

If you renew in the next 1–3 months, prices are near their week's peak — worth reviewing live quotes now to see if locking in makes sense for your business.

In the next 1–3 months Aug-26 Worth reviewing now ›
Aug-26 gas and power are both near their monthly highs after a 13% and 12% climb this week respectively. The recent direction is upward and prices are sitting at the top of the range, which is why this window carries a review stance — if you're renewing in the next 1–3 months, it's worth checking live quotes now to see whether locking in at these levels makes sense for your business.
Into winter 2026 Win-26 Worth reviewing now ›
Winter 2026 has also climbed sharply this week (+12% gas, +10% power) and sits near its monthly high. The review stance reflects the same logic: prices are elevated and the recent direction is up. Geopolitical risk and storage concerns are supporting the winter curve, but it's worth reviewing your options now rather than waiting.
Next summer (2027) Sum-27 Worth reviewing now ›
Summer 2027 has risen more modestly this week (+7% gas, +5% power) and remains near its monthly high. The review stance here is more cautious — longer-dated prices are less sensitive to the immediate Middle East tensions, and traders appear to expect some normalization by next summer. Keep watching through our daily updates; no urgent action is needed yet, but if the window's stance changes, we'll let you know.
The market in numbers

Wholesale forward prices

The rates suppliers build your contract from — your all-in business rate sits above these, once network charges, levies and standing charges are added. Settlement: 23 July 2026.

↑ rising ↓ falling day / week / month — this week matters most
Gas spot 149.25p /therm
Contract p/therm Day Week Month
Aug-26 front 149.45 -1.3 +13.2 +48.8
Win-26 149.93 -0.5 +12.0 +41.4
Sum-27 99.79 +1.5 +7.1 +23.7
Full forward curve
Sep-26 150.63 -1.1 +13.6 +47.1
Oct-26 150.79 -0.9 +13.8 —
Q4-26 153.56 -0.6 +13.2 +43.9
Q1-27 146.22 -0.4 +10.7 +38.7
Win-27 97.25 +2.2 +6.6 +17.4
Sum-28 69.50 +2.3 +7.1 +9.0
How prices moved this week

Gas has kept climbing across the month, rising nearly 49% since late June. This week it gained a further 13%, and now sits near the top of where it's been. A brief dip on Thursday was quickly reversed.

Aug-26 Q4-26 Win-26
Front month, quarter & season · last 30 trading days (p/therm)
Power spot £129.75 /MWh
Contract £/MWh Day Week Month
Aug-26 front 125.69 -0.1 +11.7 +39.7
Win-26 126.91 -0.4 +10.1 +32.5
Sum-27 87.09 +0.6 +5.3 +14.7
Full forward curve
Sep-26 127.34 -0.2 +13.0 +37.9
Oct-26 123.48 -1.0 +11.6 —
Q4-26 129.63 -0.6 +11.1 +34.2
Q1-27 124.12 -0.2 +9.0 +30.7
Win-27 87.66 +0.8 +4.4 +13.0
Sum-28 65.80 +0.9 +3.8 +3.8
How prices moved this week

Power has followed the same upward path, up nearly 40% over the month and 12% this week alone. It too is trading near its monthly high, with only a tiny daily move on Thursday breaking the climb.

Aug-26 Q4-26 Win-26
Front month, quarter & season · last 30 trading days (£/MWh)
These are wholesale forwards — the commodity your contract is built from. Your unit rate adds network charges, government levies, standing charges and margin on top, so it always sits well above the figures here.
Why prices moved

Behind this week's move

What's moving the market — and, honestly, whether each is likely to stick or fade.

MIDDLE EAST TENSIONS ELEVATE LNG RISK

Escalating US–Iran military strikes and threats to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz have disrupted LNG tanker transits since 12 July. Oil prices have climbed past $100/barrel, and traders are pricing in the risk of further supply disruption to European gas markets.

Stick or fade? Likely to persist. This risk premium is likely to persist as long as regional tensions remain unresolved; watch for any ceasefire announcements or shipping corridor reopenings, which could ease prices quickly.

EU GAS STORAGE BELOW SEASONAL NORM

European gas storage stands at 54% of capacity, roughly 10 percentage points below the same week last year and 26 points below 2023–24 levels. Injection rates have slowed, and the market is pricing in tighter conditions heading into winter.

Stick or fade? Likely to persist. This structural tightness is unlikely to ease quickly; storage will remain a key price support through the summer and into autumn.

NORWEGIAN SUPPLY DISRUPTIONS

Unplanned maintenance at the Asgard and Dvalin fields reduced Norwegian exports by 5–7 mcm/day during the week. Whilst flows remain broadly stable at 320–330 mcm/day, any further outages would tighten the UK and European balance.

Stick or fade? Could go either way. Monitor Norwegian field updates; most maintenance is scheduled to ease, but any extension would support prices further.

WEAK WIND GENERATION SUPPORTS GAS

Wind output across the UK and Northwest Europe has been well below seasonal average, with UK wind reaching just 3.9 GW on one day this week. This has increased gas-for-power demand and supported gas prices.

Stick or fade? Likely temporary. Wind is forecast to remain weak through late July but is expected to improve in early August; this support is likely temporary.

SUMMER HEAT REDUCES COOLING DEMAND

Temperatures across Northwest Europe have been forecast to remain below or near seasonal norms through the week, limiting air-conditioning demand and reducing a potential source of support for near-term gas and power prices.

Stick or fade? Likely temporary. Any return to above-normal heat would provide a brief lift to prices; for now, summer fundamentals are weak.
The honest read

Should you be doing anything?

The broader picture shows a market that has been rising steadily for the past four weeks. Geopolitical risk — particularly the threat to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and the absence of LNG tanker transits since mid-July — has added a risk premium to near-term contracts. EU storage remains a structural concern, sitting at 54% of capacity versus 64% a year ago. Longer-dated contracts (summer 2027) have also climbed, but by less — suggesting traders see the immediate tightness as temporary, though winter 2026 remains elevated. For a business renewing soon, prices are at the top of the recent range.

↓ If it eases

A ceasefire announcement or diplomatic breakthrough in the US–Iran conflict could ease geopolitical risk rapidly, allowing traders to refocus on the underlying summer weakness in demand and the fact that European storage, whilst low, is not in acute shortage — potentially pulling prices back 5–10% within days.

↑ If it holds

A further escalation in Middle East military action or a formal closure of the Strait of Hormuz could disrupt LNG flows into Europe for weeks, pushing both gas and power significantly higher and sustaining the risk premium already priced into near-term contracts.

Fixing is buying certainty, not making a bet — and we won't stampede you into a spike. If the picture genuinely shifts for a contract on your dates, you'll hear it from us plainly, and in time to act.

Review your Aug–Win renewal options now Prices are at the top of the recent range and the market is being driven by headline risk rather than fundamental tightness. If you're renewing in the next 1–3 months, it's worth pulling a live quote to see whether fixing now gives you the certainty you need — or whether waiting a week or two to see if geopolitical tensions ease makes sense for your business. We're here to help you think it through honestly.

Check a live quote → Or call 0151 459 3388 · Independent broker since 2014
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Settlement: 23 July 2026 · Commentary: 24 July 2026 · Source: ICE Endex / SEFE daily report.
Figures are wholesale forwards; your business rate will be higher. General market commentary, not advice — verify before acting on it.

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