Bigger picture
Still high over the six months held
Key risk
Us-iran military escalation
The month in review
How the month actually moved
Not one day's snapshot — the whole month, week by week. Each point is the front-month's average for that week, so you see the shape
of the month, not just where it ended.
Month of September 2026
Natural gas
The month in weeks · p/therm
↑ 23.30%
vs last month
rose early, eased into month-end · +1.4% across the month
Month avg
186.76 Month low
164.82 Month high
205.19
low 96.52Month close · today ●205.19 high
Electricity
The month in weeks · £/MWh
↑ 20.25%
vs last month
rose early, held into month-end · +3.8% across the month
Month avg
145.57 Month low
129.38 Month high
158.00
low 82.28Month close · today ●158.00 high
What matters
One month rarely changes a renewal decision
The shape:
a month that fell then bounced tells you more than the net number.
Wider view:
the 6-month charts below show whether this month is part of a longer trend.
For buyers:
a good month doesn't reset your deadline — your contract end date still drives urgency.
Biggest move of the monthWin-27
gas ↑ 17.45%
— the largest 30-day swing across every contract we track.
Why prices moved
Forces pulling prices in both directions
A balanced view is more useful than a single prediction. These are the main influences in the latest report.
Pressure pulling prices lower
Saudi pipeline restoration
Saudi Arabia's 1,200 km East-West pipeline, shut by drone strikes on 14 September, began restoring capacity from 17 September onwards. By month-end, crude flows had recovered to 98% of pre-disruption levels, and the kingdom confirmed full restoration within six weeks.
Weaker chinese lng demand
Chinese LNG imports fell 8% year-on-year in September, and Bangladesh secured 18 cargoes from TotalEnergies, drawing flexible Atlantic volumes away from European markets. By month-end, this demand weakness was easing global LNG tightness.
Above-average temperatures
Temperatures across Northwest Europe ran 4°C to 11°C above seasonal norms through most of September, suppressing heating demand and keeping gas-for-power burn low. An autumn front arrived late month, but warmth persisted into month-end.
Risks that could push prices higher
Us-iran military escalation
US strikes on Iranian positions over the weekend of 31 August–2 September, followed by Iranian retaliation against US targets in Jordan, Kuwait, Iraq and Bahrain, sent crude toward $100/bbl and triggered a sharp geopolitical risk premium in gas and power. The market priced in potential disruption to Strait of Hormuz shipping and LNG supply, with NBP climbing to 184 p/th by 3 September and reaching 205 p/th by 11 September—its highest level since December 2022.
Qatari lng force majeure
Qatar suspended LNG shipments and extended force majeure declarations on cargoes destined for Europe through the autumn, eliminating a crucial source of replacement volumes at a time when EU storage sat 20+ percentage points below seasonal norms. The suspension lasted through the month and into early October.
European storage deficits
EU gas storage opened September at 65%, roughly 22 percentage points below the five-year average of 87%, with Germany at historic lows of 53–54% and the Netherlands below 50%. By month-end, storage had climbed to 71.3%, but remained 15+ percentage points below seasonal norms, and Germany and the Netherlands stayed stuck around 58%.
Norwegian pipeline maintenance
Planned and unplanned outages at Troll, Kollsnes, Åsgard and other Norwegian fields held roughly 30–76 mcm/d offline for much of September, with the Troll compressor outage extended through 29 September. These restrictions tightened near-term supply and supported elevated prompt prices.
French nuclear and hydro constraints
Low river flows on the Meuse and Rhone extended outages at French nuclear plants (Chooz, Golfech, Civaux, Cattenom) and pushed hydro reserves to 56.4% of capacity—the lowest level for this time of year since 1997. EDF issued strike notices and curtailed output, keeping French power elevated and forcing reliance on German thermal generation.
Wind volatility across northwest europe
Wind generation swung sharply day-to-day throughout September, from peaks above 30 GW in Germany to troughs below 5 GW. These swings drove intraday power volatility and forced sharp changes in gas-for-power demand, with UK thermal burn jumping 19 mcm/d on low-wind days.
6-month direction
Was this month a blip or a trend?
The month-on-month number tells you the direction; these 6-month lines tell you whether it's part of a bigger move. Each tracks a rolling maturity — the near-term price, the next winter and the year ahead — so nothing breaks as contracts roll off. Hover for the value on any day.
Gas forward prices
Rolling maturities · p/therm
Near-term (Oct-26)
Next winter (Win-26)
Year ahead (Cal-27)
Each line is a rolling maturity — the near-term line always follows the current front month, so it never breaks as contracts roll off.
Power forward prices
Rolling maturities · £/MWh
Near-term (Oct-26)
Next winter (Win-26)
Year ahead (Cal-27)
Power tends to track gas; the chart shows how far the recent move has carried.
Your renewal window
Guidance grouped by how soon your contract ends
Timing urgency comes from your deadline; the market view comes from the forward contracts covering each renewal's supply period. Open your band for separate gas and electricity evidence.
Timing and value are different.
Wholesale prices are currently easing. If your contract ends within three months, still get live quotes now — your decision window is shortening. Later renewals have more time to monitor the market.
1–3 monthsOctober–December 2026
Oct 2026Nov 2026Dec 2026
Get live quotes now
Gas is down 2.1–4.9% this week and up 2.8–17.4% over 30 days; electricity down 0.5–3.7% this week, up 2.9–14% over 30 days.
⌄
Evidence confidenceMedium
⚠ December leans on Cal-27 only, so it has less seasonal visibility.
Your deadline creates the urgency. Use the current move to compare live supplier quotes now, but don't treat one falling day as proof the market has reached its bottom.
4–6 monthsJanuary–March 2027
Jan 2027Feb 2027Mar 2027
Review and compare
Gas is down 2.1–4.3% this week and up 4.8–17.4% over 30 days; electricity down 0.5–2.1% this week, up 6.2–14% over 30 days.
⌄
Evidence confidenceMedium
GasNear the top
Easing
This week
Down 2.1–4.3% 30 days
Up 4.8–17.4%
low 57.84Sum-27 · today ●136.76 high
Evidence:
Q1-27, Sum-27, Win-27
ElectricityNear the top
Easing
This week
Down 0.5–2.1% 30 days
Up 6.2–14%
low 59.74Sum-27 · today ●109.75 high
Evidence:
Q1-27, Sum-27, Win-27
What this means
Start reviewing the market and compare 12-, 24- and 36-month options. You have time for a considered decision, so weigh the certainty each term buys rather than chasing a perfect day.
7–9 monthsApril–June 2027
Apr 2027May 2027Jun 2027
Prepare and monitor
Gas is down 0.6–2.9% this week and up 11.3–17.4% over 30 days; electricity down 0–0.8% this week, up 8–14% over 30 days.
⌄
Evidence confidenceMedium
GasNear the top
Easing
This week
Down 0.6–2.9% 30 days
Up 11.3–17.4%
low 65.81Win-27 · today ●129.93 high
Evidence:
Q2-27, Sum-27, Win-27, Sum-28
ElectricityNear the top
Little changed
This week
Down 0–0.8% 30 days
Up 8–14%
low 74.51Win-27 · today ●108.69 high
Evidence:
Q2-27, Sum-27, Win-27, Cal-28
What this means
Get usage and site details ready, monitor the relevant forward contracts and use indicative quotes to understand the range. No need to force a decision while visibility is adequate.
10–12 monthsJuly–September 2027
Jul 2027Aug 2027Sep 2027
Plan ahead and watch
Gas is down 0.6–2.9% this week and up 11.3–17.4% over 30 days; electricity down 0–0.7% this week, up 8–14% over 30 days.
⌄
Evidence confidenceMedium
GasNear the top
Easing
This week
Down 0.6–2.9% 30 days
Up 11.3–17.4%
low 65.81Win-27 · today ●129.93 high
Evidence:
Sum-27, Win-27, Sum-28
ElectricityNear the top
Little changed
This week
Down 0–0.7% 30 days
Up 8–14%
low 74.51Win-27 · today ●108.69 high
Evidence:
Sum-27, Win-27, Cal-28
What this means
Plan your procurement timetable and stay informed. Far-dated products can hide seasonal detail, so a firm buy-or-wait instruction would be false precision at this stage.
The honest read
Gas and power are not moving together. That makes any single read of the market less reliable.
And wholesale is only part of a quote — non-energy charges, credit, volume and shape all move the final rate. The practical decision is how much further movement your business can tolerate before its contract deadline.
If prices ease further
Wind, milder weather and diplomacy help
If diplomatic talks between Iran and the US gain traction and the Strait of Hormuz reopens, Qatari LNG could resume and global supply tighten less severely. Warmer-than-normal winter forecasts (currently priced in) could ease storage pressure further, allowing prices to drift lower as the month-ahead contracts roll off and far-dated ones become the focus.
If prices rise again
Low storage leaves little cushion
A breakdown in US-Iran negotiations or a fresh attack on Middle East shipping could reignite the geopolitical premium and push gas back toward 200+ p/th. Storage deficits across Germany and the Netherlands remain acute, and any supply disruption would leave little room for error heading into winter.
Fixing buys budget certainty. It does not prove that a business has predicted the market correctly.
Market in numbers
The wholesale forward curve
Where the month ended across every contract — kept for readers who want the detail.
Open gas and electricity forward tables Monthly, quarterly, seasonal and annual contracts · month-ending close
View data ⌄
Gas
p/therm
Contract
Price
Day
Week
30d
Oct-26
month
174.56
↓ 4.74%
↓ 4.29%
↑ 3.60%
Nov-26
month
176.53
↓ 4.90%
↓ 4.93%
↑ 2.84%
Dec-26
month
178.42
↓ 4.79%
↓ 4.82%
—
Q4-26
quarter
176.50
↓ 4.81%
↓ 4.68%
↑ 3.11%
Q1-27
quarter
175.27
↓ 4.72%
↓ 4.32%
↑ 4.75%
Q2-27
quarter
133.39
↓ 3.41%
↓ 2.19%
↑ 17.44%
Win-26
season
175.89
↓ 4.77%
↓ 4.50%
↑ 3.92%
Sum-27
season
128.06
↓ 3.41%
↓ 2.14%
↑ 17.30%
Win-27
season
124.01
↓ 3.11%
↓ 2.85%
↑ 17.45%
Sum-28
season
81.75
↓ 2.48%
↓ 0.55%
↑ 11.27%
Cal-27
calendar
139.04
↓ 3.75%
↓ 2.93%
↑ 13.28%
Cal-28
calendar
93.38
↓ 2.69%
↓ 1.25%
↑ 12.72%
Cal-29
calendar
76.28
↓ 1.36%
↑ 0.93%
↑ 10.21%
Electricity
£/MWh
Contract
Price
Day
Week
30d
Oct-26
month
139.05
↓ 5.21%
↓ 2.65%
↑ 6.02%
Nov-26
month
145.85
↓ 3.71%
↓ 2.85%
↑ 2.94%
Dec-26
month
143.60
↓ 3.47%
↓ 3.72%
—
Q4-26
quarter
142.80
↓ 4.13%
↓ 3.08%
↑ 3.48%
Q1-27
quarter
145.91
↓ 3.08%
↓ 2.09%
↑ 6.25%
Q2-27
quarter
105.60
↓ 2.41%
↓ 0.77%
↑ 11.40%
Win-26
season
144.34
↓ 3.61%
↓ 2.59%
↑ 4.84%
Sum-27
season
102.70
↓ 2.31%
↓ 0.73%
↑ 11.33%
Win-27
season
104.88
↓ 1.28%
↓ 0.52%
↑ 14.00%
Cal-27
calendar
114.40
↓ 2.31%
↓ 1.11%
↑ 10.24%
Cal-28
calendar
81.30
↓ 1.00%
→ 0.02%
↑ 7.97%
Cal-29
calendar
71.85
↓ 0.21%
↑ 0.17%
↑ 3.81%
Fixed-term choices
Contract length is a risk decision, not a forecast
No term protects against every outcome. Weigh the certainty the business wants against how soon it is willing to return to the market.
12
months
More flexibility if markets fall, but the business returns to the market sooner.
Shorter budget certainty
Earlier exposure to the next renewal
Useful where flexibility matters most
24
months
A middle ground between price certainty and revisiting the market.
Two-year budgeting
Less frequent procurement
Still allows a medium-term review
36
months
Greater certainty, but a longer commitment if markets later fall.
Tell us your end date and the market moves that matter, and we'll tell you when your target is reached.
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{"schema":"1.4","as_of":"2026-09-30","settlement_date":"2026-09-29","signal":{"colour":"green","reason":"Gas and power both easing week-on-week. Gas -3.0% w/w, power -1.7% w/w.","gasSignal":"PRICES EASING","powerSignal":"PRICES EASING"},"moves":{"daily":{"gas_pct":-3.76,"power_pct":-2.73},"weekly":{"gas_pct":-2.96,"power_pct":-1.66},"monthly":{"gas_pct":9.83,"power_pct":7.48}},"spot":{"gas_price":173,"gas_change_pct":null,"power_price":117.67,"power_change_pct":null},"reference":{"contract":"Sum-27","gas_price":128.06,"power_price":102.7,"gas_day_pct":-3.409,"gas_week_pct":-2.14,"gas_30d_pct":17.303,"power_day_pct":-2.311,"power_week_pct":-0.73,"power_30d_pct":11.328},"front_month":{"key":"oct26","label":"Oct-26","gas":{"price":174.56,"day_pct":-4.742,"week_pct":-4.29,"m30_pct":3.603,"trend":"rolling_over","streak":{"dir":"down","days":1},"range_30d":{"low":164.82,"high":205.19,"position":0.241},"net_pct":5.9},"power":{"price":139.05,"day_pct":-5.208,"week_pct":-2.65,"m30_pct":6.016,"trend":"rolling_over","streak":{"dir":"down","days":1},"range_30d":{"low":129.38,"high":158,"position":0.338},"net_pct":7.5}},"windows":[{"key":"oct26","label":"Oct-26","context":"In the next 1–3 months","horizon_rank":0,"is_front":true,"stance":"no_rush","note":"October contracts have fallen back from mid-month highs and now sit in the lower half of their 30-day range, having eased 4.7% (gas) and 5.2% (power) in the past day. The month-long rally from 164 p/th to 205 p/th proved temporary, and prices have retreated as geopolitical risk unwound. For a renewer with an October renewal date, the window has closed: prices are cheaper than they were a fortnight ago, but the acute spike mid-month means anyone fixing now pays more than they would have on 31 August. No urgency, but no clear advantage to waiting either—the market is settling, not trending lower.","gas":{"price":174.56,"day_pct":-4.742,"week_pct":-4.29,"m30_pct":3.603,"trend":"rolling_over","streak":{"dir":"down","days":1},"range_30d":{"low":164.82,"high":205.19,"position":0.241},"net_pct":5.9},"power":{"price":139.05,"day_pct":-5.208,"week_pct":-2.65,"m30_pct":6.016,"trend":"rolling_over","streak":{"dir":"down","days":1},"range_30d":{"low":129.38,"high":158,"position":0.338},"net_pct":7.5}}],"spotlight":{"contract":"oct26","label":"Oct-26","fuel":"power","metric":"pattern","value":6.016,"dir":"up","trend":"rolling_over","text":"October power climbed 6.0% over the month, driven entirely by the geopolitical spike in early-to-mid September when winter contracts hit record highs. The contract has since eased 5.2% in a single day as gas fell back, but remains well above August levels. The shape—up sharply, then rolling over—mirrors gas exactly, showing power is tracking fuel cost rather than renewable or demand shifts. For a power renewer, the month offered no bargain: prices rose, peaked, and have only partially unwound."},"narrative":{"headline":"September: prices climbed on geopolitical risk, then eased as supply fears faded","summary":"Gas and power both rose sharply in early September on Middle East tensions and storage concerns, but fell back as the month closed on signs of recovering supply and weaker demand. The month ended cheaper than it began, though well above August levels.","verdict":"The month's net move down is welcome, but don't mistake it for a trend: near-term contracts remain elevated, and far-dated prices are still climbing. Watch October closely before committing to longer-dated renewals.","trend_read":{"gas":"Gas fell sharply early September on geopolitical risk, then climbed to a 44-month high mid-month before easing back through late September. Today it sits in the lower half of its 30-day range, having fallen one day running, but remains 3.6% higher than the month opened.","power":"Power tracked gas closely, rising sharply in early September and peaking mid-month before retreating in line with falling gas prices. Today it sits in the lower half of its 30-day range, down one day, but has still climbed 6.0% over the month as a whole."},"scenario":{"upside":"A breakdown in US-Iran negotiations or a fresh attack on Middle East shipping could reignite the geopolitical premium and push gas back toward 200+ p/th. Storage deficits across Germany and the Netherlands remain acute, and any supply disruption would leave little room for error heading into winter.","downside":"If diplomatic talks between Iran and the US gain traction and the Strait of Hormuz reopens, Qatari LNG could resume and global supply tighten less severely. Warmer-than-normal winter forecasts (currently priced in) could ease storage pressure further, allowing prices to drift lower as the month-ahead contracts roll off and far-dated ones become the focus."},"drivers":[{"title":"US-IRAN MILITARY ESCALATION","body":"US strikes on Iranian positions over the weekend of 31 August–2 September, followed by Iranian retaliation against US targets in Jordan, Kuwait, Iraq and Bahrain, sent crude toward $100/bbl and triggered a sharp geopolitical risk premium in gas and power. The market priced in potential disruption to Strait of Hormuz shipping and LNG supply, with NBP climbing to 184 p/th by 3 September and reaching 205 p/th by 11 September—its highest level since December 2022.","tone":"up","outlook":"sticks","soWhat":"The premium proved temporary: by late month, diplomatic talks opened and crude fell below $103/bbl, but the underlying risk to Hormuz transit remained unresolved as the month closed."},{"title":"QATARI LNG FORCE MAJEURE","body":"Qatar suspended LNG shipments and extended force majeure declarations on cargoes destined for Europe through the autumn, eliminating a crucial source of replacement volumes at a time when EU storage sat 20+ percentage points below seasonal norms. The suspension lasted through the month and into early October.","tone":"up","outlook":"sticks","soWhat":"European buyers competed directly with Asia for flexible Atlantic cargoes, tightening global supply and keeping European prompt prices elevated."},{"title":"EUROPEAN STORAGE DEFICITS","body":"EU gas storage opened September at 65%, roughly 22 percentage points below the five-year average of 87%, with Germany at historic lows of 53–54% and the Netherlands below 50%. By month-end, storage had climbed to 71.3%, but remained 15+ percentage points below seasonal norms, and Germany and the Netherlands stayed stuck around 58%.","tone":"up","outlook":"sticks","soWhat":"Low storage kept the market pricing in tighter conditions heading into winter, supporting elevated gas and power prices throughout the month despite the geopolitical premium unwinding."},{"title":"NORWEGIAN PIPELINE MAINTENANCE","body":"Planned and unplanned outages at Troll, Kollsnes, Åsgard and other Norwegian fields held roughly 30–76 mcm/d offline for much of September, with the Troll compressor outage extended through 29 September. These restrictions tightened near-term supply and supported elevated prompt prices.","tone":"up","outlook":"fades","soWhat":"As the month closed, major maintenance was winding down and Norwegian exports were recovering, easing near-term supply pressure."},{"title":"FRENCH NUCLEAR AND HYDRO CONSTRAINTS","body":"Low river flows on the Meuse and Rhone extended outages at French nuclear plants (Chooz, Golfech, Civaux, Cattenom) and pushed hydro reserves to 56.4% of capacity—the lowest level for this time of year since 1997. EDF issued strike notices and curtailed output, keeping French power elevated and forcing reliance on German thermal generation.","tone":"up","outlook":"mixed","soWhat":"Rainfall forecasts improved late month, offering some relief to winter nuclear availability, but constraints persisted through September and into October."},{"title":"SAUDI PIPELINE RESTORATION","body":"Saudi Arabia's 1,200 km East-West pipeline, shut by drone strikes on 14 September, began restoring capacity from 17 September onwards. By month-end, crude flows had recovered to 98% of pre-disruption levels, and the kingdom confirmed full restoration within six weeks.","tone":"down","outlook":"sticks","soWhat":"The restoration eased crude supply concerns and helped crude fall from $109/bbl (11 September) to below $103/bbl by month-end, dragging gas and power lower."},{"title":"WEAKER CHINESE LNG DEMAND","body":"Chinese LNG imports fell 8% year-on-year in September, and Bangladesh secured 18 cargoes from TotalEnergies, drawing flexible Atlantic volumes away from European markets. By month-end, this demand weakness was easing global LNG tightness.","tone":"down","outlook":"mixed","soWhat":"Weaker Asian demand eased the competition for flexible cargoes and helped European spot prices ease in late September."},{"title":"WIND VOLATILITY ACROSS NORTHWEST EUROPE","body":"Wind generation swung sharply day-to-day throughout September, from peaks above 30 GW in Germany to troughs below 5 GW. These swings drove intraday power volatility and forced sharp changes in gas-for-power demand, with UK thermal burn jumping 19 mcm/d on low-wind days.","tone":"mixed","outlook":"mixed","soWhat":"Wind variability kept prompt power prices volatile but did not establish a clear trend; the month-end easing in power was driven by falling gas, not renewable abundance."},{"title":"ABOVE-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES","body":"Temperatures across Northwest Europe ran 4°C to 11°C above seasonal norms through most of September, suppressing heating demand and keeping gas-for-power burn low. An autumn front arrived late month, but warmth persisted into month-end.","tone":"down","outlook":"fades","soWhat":"Mild weather eased near-term demand pressure and supported falling prices in late September, but forecasts show cooler conditions returning in early 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