Weekly Energy Market Report: 21st - 25th Sept 2026
SMART ENERGY
Weekly Energy Briefing · UK
Week of 21 Sept – 25 Sept 2026 Latest settlement: 24 September 2026
Weekly review · Week 39 · 21 Sept – 25 Sept 2026
The week in review: gas eased 5.8%, power eased 4.3%
A day-by-day recap of how UK gas and electricity moved across the trading week of 21 Sept – 25 Sept 2026, and where that leaves businesses approaching renewal.
Bigger picture
Still high over the six months held
Key risk
Storage well below seasonal norms
The week in review
How the week actually moved
Not one day's snapshot — the whole week, day by day. Each line traces the front-month close from Monday to Friday, so you see the shape
of the week, not just where it ended.
Week of 21 Sept – 25 Sept 2026
Natural gas
The week in 5 days · p/therm
↓ 5.77%
vs last week
eased early, rose into Friday · -5.3% Mon→Fri
Week avg
185.84 Week low
179.48 Week high
198.16
low 96.52Fri close · today ●205.19 high
Electricity
The week in 5 days · £/MWh
↓ 4.30%
vs last week
eased early, rose into Friday · -4.5% Mon→Fri
Week avg
145.62 Week low
141.87 Week high
153.88
low 82.28Fri close · today ●158.00 high
What matters
One week rarely changes a renewal decision
The shape:
a week that fell then bounced tells you more than the net number.
Wider view:
the 6-month charts below show whether this week is a blip or a trend.
For buyers:
a good week doesn't reset your deadline — your contract end date still drives urgency.
Biggest move of the weekSum-28
gas ↑ 4.81%
— the largest week-on-week swing across every contract we track.
Why prices moved
Forces pulling prices in both directions
A balanced view is more useful than a single prediction. These are the main influences in the latest report.
Pressure pulling prices lower
Us-iran talks spark optimism, then fade
Mid-week, reports of US-Iran negotiations at the UN General Assembly and speculation about a phased deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz sent both gas and power sharply lower. By Thursday, those hopes had evaporated after Iran's President rejected capitulation and the Trump administration outlined a harder line. The whipsaw — down on hope, back up on disappointment — dominated the week's price action.
Norwegian maintenance easing, supply improving
Major Norwegian outages at Troll (46 mcm/d), Njord, Åsgard, Skarv and Dvalin peaked mid-week and are now winding down. Troll maintenance was extended through 27 September, but overall Norwegian flows are expected to rise from around 240 mcm/d back towards 265 mcm/d. This supply improvement has helped cap upside pressure on near-term gas prices.
Above-average temperatures limit heating demand
Temperatures across north-west Europe continue to run above seasonal norms, suppressing heating demand heading into autumn. This weather pattern is forecast to persist through the week, keeping gas-for-heating requirements subdued.
Risks that could push prices higher
Storage well below seasonal norms
EU storage sits at 70.24%, down 10 percentage points year-on-year and below seasonal norms across Germany (56.55%), the Netherlands (55.06%) and the UK (31.35%). This structural deficit, despite warmer-than-normal weather limiting heating demand, is a persistent undercurrent supporting far-dated prices.
Wind generation weak, then improving
UK and north-west European wind output has been subdued this week, averaging well below seasonal norms and forcing greater reliance on gas-fired generation for power. Wind is forecast to improve later in the week and into early October, easing this pressure.
French hydro drought persists, relief possible
Hydroelectric output in France and the Alpine region remains at historic lows for September, with reservoir stocks at multi-decade deficits. Rainfall forecasts for the Grenoble region have improved and now show 0.6mm/day above seasonal norms from 28 September, which could ease strain on the French nuclear fleet if it materialises.
Lng supplies remain constrained globally
Despite mid-week optimism about a potential US-Iran deal, global LNG supply remains tight. Qatar confirmed its North Field East expansion remains on track for H1 2027, but near-term supply is not expected to ease materially.
6-month direction
Was this week a blip or a trend?
The week-on-week number tells you the direction; these 6-month lines tell you whether it's part of a bigger move. Each tracks a rolling maturity — the near-term price, the next winter and the year ahead — so nothing breaks as contracts roll off. Hover for the value on any day.
Gas forward prices
Rolling maturities · p/therm
Near-term (Oct-26)
Next winter (Win-26)
Year ahead (Cal-27)
Each line is a rolling maturity — the near-term line always follows the current front month, so it never breaks as contracts roll off.
Power forward prices
Rolling maturities · £/MWh
Near-term (Oct-26)
Next winter (Win-26)
Year ahead (Cal-27)
Power tends to track gas; the chart shows how far the recent move has carried.
Your renewal window
Guidance grouped by how soon your contract ends
Timing urgency comes from your deadline; the market view comes from the forward contracts covering each renewal's supply period. Open your band for separate gas and electricity evidence.
Timing and value are different.
Wholesale prices are broadly flat. If your contract ends within three months, still get live quotes now — your decision window is shortening. Later renewals have more time to monitor the market.
1–3 monthsOctober–December 2026
Oct 2026Nov 2026Dec 2026
Get live quotes now
Gas is -1.8% to 3.3% this week and up 13.6–27.2% over 30 days; electricity -2.5% to 3% this week, up 11–18.2% over 30 days.
⌄
Evidence confidenceMedium
⚠ December leans on Cal-27 only, so it has less seasonal visibility.
Your deadline creates the urgency. Use the current move to compare live supplier quotes now, but don't treat one falling day as proof the market has reached its bottom.
4–6 monthsJanuary–March 2027
Jan 2027Feb 2027Mar 2027
Review and compare
Gas is -1.8% to 3.3% this week and up 15.4–27.2% over 30 days; electricity -1.5% to 3% this week, up 13.4–18.2% over 30 days.
⌄
Evidence confidenceMedium
GasNear the top
Little changed
This week
-1.8% to 3.3% 30 days
Up 15.4–27.2%
low 57.84Sum-27 · today ●136.76 high
Evidence:
Q1-27, Sum-27, Win-27
ElectricityNear the top
Little changed
This week
-1.5% to 3% 30 days
Up 13.4–18.2%
low 59.74Sum-27 · today ●109.75 high
Evidence:
Q1-27, Sum-27, Win-27
What this means
Start reviewing the market and compare 12-, 24- and 36-month options. You have time for a considered decision, so weigh the certainty each term buys rather than chasing a perfect day.
7–9 monthsApril–June 2027
Apr 2027May 2027Jun 2027
Prepare and monitor
Gas is up 3–4.8% this week and up 16.4–27.6% over 30 days; electricity up 3–3.1% this week, up 11.7–18.2% over 30 days.
⌄
Evidence confidenceMedium
GasNear the top
Rising
This week
Up 3–4.8% 30 days
Up 16.4–27.6%
low 65.81Win-27 · today ●129.93 high
Evidence:
Q2-27, Sum-27, Win-27, Sum-28
ElectricityNear the top
Rising
This week
Up 3–3.1% 30 days
Up 11.7–18.2%
low 74.51Win-27 · today ●108.69 high
Evidence:
Q2-27, Sum-27, Win-27, Cal-28
What this means
Get usage and site details ready, monitor the relevant forward contracts and use indicative quotes to understand the range. No need to force a decision while visibility is adequate.
10–12 monthsJuly–September 2027
Jul 2027Aug 2027Sep 2027
Plan ahead and watch
Gas is up 3.2–4.8% this week and up 16.4–27.2% over 30 days; electricity up 3–3.1% this week, up 11.7–18.2% over 30 days.
⌄
Evidence confidenceMedium
GasNear the top
Rising
This week
Up 3.2–4.8% 30 days
Up 16.4–27.2%
low 65.81Win-27 · today ●129.93 high
Evidence:
Sum-27, Win-27, Sum-28
ElectricityNear the top
Rising
This week
Up 3–3.1% 30 days
Up 11.7–18.2%
low 74.51Win-27 · today ●108.69 high
Evidence:
Sum-27, Win-27, Cal-28
What this means
Plan your procurement timetable and stay informed. Far-dated products can hide seasonal detail, so a firm buy-or-wait instruction would be false precision at this stage.
The honest read
Gas and power are not moving together. That makes any single read of the market less reliable.
And wholesale is only part of a quote — non-energy charges, credit, volume and shape all move the final rate. The practical decision is how much further movement your business can tolerate before its contract deadline.
If prices ease further
Wind, milder weather and diplomacy help
If the rainfall forecast for France materialises and eases hydro constraints, or if warmer-than-normal weather persists through October, near-term demand could weaken further and pull prices down. A successful US-Iran deal that reopens the Strait of Hormuz would also ease global LNG supply fears and remove a key prop under far-dated prices.
If prices rise again
Low storage leaves little cushion
If US-Iran talks collapse and geopolitical tensions escalate further, or if a cold snap arrives earlier than forecast, near-term gas and power could spike sharply. Equally, if Norwegian maintenance extends or LNG supply tightens unexpectedly, far-dated prices could push higher.
Fixing buys budget certainty. It does not prove that a business has predicted the market correctly.
Where the week ended across every contract — kept for readers who want the detail.
Open gas and electricity forward tables Monthly, quarterly, seasonal and annual contracts · week-ending close
View data ⌄
Gas
p/therm
Contract
Price
Day
Week
30d
Oct-26
month
187.56
↑ 4.50%
↓ 1.66%
↑ 14.28%
Nov-26
month
190.71
↑ 4.41%
↓ 1.60%
↑ 13.60%
Dec-26
month
192.68
↑ 4.43%
↓ 1.33%
—
Q4-26
quarter
190.31
↑ 4.45%
↓ 1.53%
↑ 13.78%
Q1-27
quarter
188.63
↑ 4.63%
↓ 1.76%
↑ 15.44%
Q2-27
quarter
140.81
↑ 3.72%
↑ 2.97%
↑ 27.59%
Win-26
season
189.48
↑ 4.54%
↓ 1.64%
↑ 14.59%
Sum-27
season
134.72
↑ 3.54%
↑ 3.22%
↑ 27.19%
Win-27
season
129.93
↑ 2.47%
↑ 3.32%
↑ 25.99%
Sum-28
season
84.58
↑ 2.45%
↑ 4.81%
↑ 16.36%
Cal-27
calendar
147.07
↑ 3.64%
↑ 1.58%
↑ 23.08%
Cal-28
calendar
97.11
↑ 2.34%
↑ 4.23%
↑ 18.95%
Cal-29
calendar
78.45
↑ 2.56%
↑ 3.80%
↑ 14.81%
Electricity
£/MWh
Contract
Price
Day
Week
30d
Oct-26
month
147.02
↑ 3.63%
↓ 0.20%
↑ 14.42%
Nov-26
month
154.57
↑ 3.22%
↓ 1.62%
↑ 10.98%
Dec-26
month
152.02
↑ 3.42%
↓ 2.51%
—
Q4-26
quarter
151.17
↑ 3.42%
↓ 1.46%
↑ 11.91%
Q1-27
quarter
153.50
↑ 3.50%
↓ 1.48%
↑ 13.38%
Q2-27
quarter
109.72
↑ 3.71%
↑ 2.97%
↑ 17.94%
Win-26
season
152.32
↑ 3.46%
↓ 1.47%
↑ 12.64%
Sum-27
season
106.55
↑ 3.55%
↑ 2.96%
↑ 17.62%
Win-27
season
107.58
↑ 2.80%
↑ 2.96%
↑ 18.18%
Cal-27
calendar
118.90
↑ 3.35%
↑ 1.51%
↑ 16.34%
Cal-28
calendar
83.05
↑ 2.34%
↑ 3.05%
↑ 11.66%
Cal-29
calendar
72.68
↑ 1.11%
↑ 1.41%
↑ 6.52%
Fixed-term choices
Contract length is a risk decision, not a forecast
No term protects against every outcome. Weigh the certainty the business wants against how soon it is willing to return to the market.
12
months
More flexibility if markets fall, but the business returns to the market sooner.
Shorter budget certainty
Earlier exposure to the next renewal
Useful where flexibility matters most
24
months
A middle ground between price certainty and revisiting the market.
Two-year budgeting
Less frequent procurement
Still allows a medium-term review
36
months
Greater certainty, but a longer commitment if markets later fall.
Longest budget protection
Reduced exposure to near-term shocks
Higher opportunity cost if prices drop
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{"schema":"1.4","as_of":"2026-09-25","settlement_date":"2026-09-24","signal":{"colour":"amber","reason":"Mixed picture across gas and power. Gas 1.1% w/w, power 0.5% w/w.","gasSignal":"PRICES RISING","powerSignal":"PRICES STABLE"},"moves":{"daily":{"gas_pct":3.67,"power_pct":3.13},"weekly":{"gas_pct":1.11,"power_pct":0.51},"monthly":{"gas_pct":18.8,"power_pct":13.78}},"spot":{"gas_price":190,"gas_change_pct":null,"power_price":161.23,"power_change_pct":null},"reference":{"contract":"Sum-27","gas_price":134.72,"power_price":106.55,"gas_day_pct":3.543,"gas_week_pct":3.22,"gas_30d_pct":27.19,"power_day_pct":3.547,"power_week_pct":2.96,"power_30d_pct":17.618},"front_month":{"key":"oct26","label":"Oct-26","gas":{"price":187.56,"day_pct":4.502,"week_pct":-1.66,"m30_pct":14.275,"trend":"rolling_over","streak":{"dir":"up","days":1},"range_30d":{"low":162.26,"high":205.19,"position":0.589},"net_pct":14.3},"power":{"price":147.02,"day_pct":3.63,"week_pct":-0.2,"m30_pct":14.421,"trend":"rolling_over","streak":{"dir":"up","days":1},"range_30d":{"low":128.3,"high":158,"position":0.63},"net_pct":14.4}},"windows":[{"key":"oct26","label":"Oct-26","context":"In the next 1–3 months","horizon_rank":0,"is_front":true,"stance":"monitor","note":"October gas and power have both eased this week (gas -1.7%, power -0.2%) and sit in the upper half of their 30-day range after climbing 14%+ over the month. The week's volatility — down mid-week, back up Friday — reflects genuine uncertainty about geopolitical risk and supply. If you're renewing in the next 1–3 months, there is no clear edge to act now; watch how the curve settles over the coming week and keep an eye on whether peace talks gain real traction or fizzle.","gas":{"price":187.56,"day_pct":4.502,"week_pct":-1.66,"m30_pct":14.275,"trend":"rolling_over","streak":{"dir":"up","days":1},"range_30d":{"low":162.26,"high":205.19,"position":0.589},"net_pct":14.3},"power":{"price":147.02,"day_pct":3.63,"week_pct":-0.2,"m30_pct":14.421,"trend":"rolling_over","streak":{"dir":"up","days":1},"range_30d":{"low":128.3,"high":158,"position":0.63},"net_pct":14.4}}],"spotlight":{"contract":"oct26","label":"Oct-26","fuel":"power","metric":"pattern","value":14.421,"dir":"up","trend":"rolling_over","text":"October power has climbed 14.4% over 30 days and sits in the upper half of its range after a week of sharp swings. The move reflects both gas strength and tight renewable generation (weak wind, low French hydro). The recent path — down mid-week, back up Friday — suggests the market is still repricing geopolitical risk and supply tightness; there is no clear trend yet, which is why the stance is to monitor rather than act."},"narrative":{"headline":"Gas fell hard mid-week, then bounced back; power followed suit","summary":"Both fuels dropped sharply on Tuesday and Wednesday as geopolitical hopes eased supply fears, then climbed back on Friday. The week ended mixed — near-dated contracts lower, far-dated higher — which matters differently depending on when you renew.","verdict":"No rush this week: near-term prices have eased, but the curve is split and volatile. Watch closely if you're renewing in the next three months.","trend_read":{"gas":"Gas rose through September, then fell sharply mid-week as US-Iran peace talks sparked optimism, before climbing back on Friday. It sits in the upper half of its 30-day range and has risen for one day, but the week's path — down then up — left it 1.7% lower than it opened, masking much bigger swings underneath.","power":"Power mirrored gas: climbed earlier in September, fell sharply mid-week on the same peace hopes, then recovered on Friday. It sits in the upper half of its 30-day range and has risen for one day, finishing the week 0.2% lower than it opened — a similar story of cancellation beneath the surface."},"scenario":{"upside":"If US-Iran talks collapse and geopolitical tensions escalate further, or if a cold snap arrives earlier than forecast, near-term gas and power could spike sharply. Equally, if Norwegian maintenance extends or LNG supply tightens unexpectedly, far-dated prices could push higher.","downside":"If the rainfall forecast for France materialises and eases hydro constraints, or if warmer-than-normal weather persists through October, near-term demand could weaken further and pull prices down. A successful US-Iran deal that reopens the Strait of Hormuz would also ease global LNG supply fears and remove a key prop under far-dated prices."},"drivers":[{"title":"US-IRAN TALKS SPARK OPTIMISM, THEN FADE","body":"Mid-week, reports of US-Iran negotiations at the UN General Assembly and speculation about a phased deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz sent both gas and power sharply lower. By Thursday, those hopes had evaporated after Iran's President rejected capitulation and the Trump administration outlined a harder line. The whipsaw — down on hope, back up on disappointment — dominated the week's price action.","tone":"down","outlook":"mixed","soWhat":"Geopolitical risk remains live and will keep near-term prices volatile; there is no clear direction until talks either progress or collapse."},{"title":"NORWEGIAN MAINTENANCE EASING, SUPPLY IMPROVING","body":"Major Norwegian outages at Troll (46 mcm/d), Njord, Åsgard, Skarv and Dvalin peaked mid-week and are now winding down. Troll maintenance was extended through 27 September, but overall Norwegian flows are expected to rise from around 240 mcm/d back towards 265 mcm/d. This supply improvement has helped cap upside pressure on near-term gas prices.","tone":"down","outlook":"sticks","soWhat":"Supply relief is real but gradual; it supports the softer tone in October contracts but does not erase longer-term tightness."},{"title":"STORAGE WELL BELOW SEASONAL NORMS","body":"EU storage sits at 70.24%, down 10 percentage points year-on-year and below seasonal norms across Germany (56.55%), the Netherlands (55.06%) and the UK (31.35%). This structural deficit, despite warmer-than-normal weather limiting heating demand, is a persistent undercurrent supporting far-dated prices.","tone":"up","outlook":"sticks","soWhat":"Low storage is a longer-term concern; it supports summer 2027 and beyond more than October, which is why the curve has split this week."},{"title":"ABOVE-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES LIMIT HEATING DEMAND","body":"Temperatures across north-west Europe continue to run above seasonal norms, suppressing heating demand heading into autumn. This weather pattern is forecast to persist through the week, keeping gas-for-heating requirements subdued.","tone":"down","outlook":"fades","soWhat":"Seasonal warmth is temporary; it supports October prices but will reverse as winter approaches, which is why far-dated contracts are climbing."},{"title":"WIND GENERATION WEAK, THEN IMPROVING","body":"UK and north-west European wind output has been subdued this week, averaging well below seasonal norms and forcing greater reliance on gas-fired generation for power. Wind is forecast to improve later in the week and into early October, easing this pressure.","tone":"up","outlook":"fades","soWhat":"Near-term wind weakness has supported power prices; the expected improvement should ease gas-for-power demand and cap further gains."},{"title":"FRENCH HYDRO DROUGHT PERSISTS, RELIEF POSSIBLE","body":"Hydroelectric output in France and the Alpine region remains at historic lows for September, with reservoir stocks at multi-decade deficits. Rainfall forecasts for the Grenoble region have improved and now show 0.6mm/day above seasonal norms from 28 September, which could ease strain on the French nuclear fleet if it materialises.","tone":"up","outlook":"mixed","soWhat":"Hydro tightness is real but may ease if rainfall forecasts hold; this uncertainty is keeping European power prices elevated."},{"title":"LNG SUPPLIES REMAIN CONSTRAINED GLOBALLY","body":"Despite mid-week optimism about a potential US-Iran deal, global LNG supply remains tight. Qatar confirmed its North Field East expansion remains on track for H1 2027, but near-term supply is not expected to ease materially.","tone":"up","outlook":"sticks","soWhat":"Global LNG tightness is a structural support for far-dated European gas prices; it explains why summer 2027 and beyond are climbing harder than 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