{"schema":"1.4","as_of":"2026-08-14","settlement_date":"2026-08-13","signal":{"action":"QUOTE NOW","colour":"red","reason":"Gas and power both rising week-on-week. Gas 6.4% w/w, power 4.5% w/w.","gasSignal":"PRICES RISING","powerSignal":"PRICES RISING"},"moves":{"daily":{"gas_pct":-0.94,"power_pct":-0.27},"weekly":{"gas_pct":6.37,"power_pct":4.45},"monthly":{"gas_pct":9.34,"power_pct":6.16}},"spot":{"gas_price":149.6,"gas_change_pct":null,"power_price":145.5,"power_change_pct":null},"reference":{"contract":"Sum-27","gas_price":95.42,"power_price":82.78,"gas_day_pct":-1.293,"gas_week_pct":5.33,"gas_30d_pct":3.808,"power_day_pct":-0.16,"power_week_pct":2.26,"power_30d_pct":0.89},"front_month":{"key":"sep26","label":"Sep-26","gas":{"price":148.48,"day_pct":-1.799,"week_pct":8.45,"m30_pct":15.297,"trend":"rising","streak":{"dir":"down","days":1},"range_30d":{"low":128.04,"high":155.42,"position":0.747},"net_pct":15.3},"power":{"price":122.48,"day_pct":-0.16,"week_pct":7.81,"m30_pct":10.721,"trend":"rising","streak":{"dir":"down","days":1},"range_30d":{"low":110.33,"high":127.88,"position":0.692},"net_pct":10.7}},"windows":[{"key":"sep26","label":"Sep-26","context":"In the next 1–3 months","horizon_rank":0,"is_front":true,"stance":"review","note":"Sep-26 has climbed 8.4% this week and is now sitting in the upper half of its 30-day range, which has been rising steadily. The contract is reflecting genuine near-term supply tightness and geopolitical risk. If you're renewing into September or October, it's worth reviewing live quotes now to see where the market has moved.","gas":{"price":148.48,"day_pct":-1.799,"week_pct":8.45,"m30_pct":15.297,"trend":"rising","streak":{"dir":"down","days":1},"range_30d":{"low":128.04,"high":155.42,"position":0.747},"net_pct":15.3},"power":{"price":122.48,"day_pct":-0.16,"week_pct":7.81,"m30_pct":10.721,"trend":"rising","streak":{"dir":"down","days":1},"range_30d":{"low":110.33,"high":127.88,"position":0.692},"net_pct":10.7}},{"key":"win26","label":"Win-26","context":"Into winter 2026","horizon_rank":1,"is_front":false,"stance":"review","note":"Winter-26 has risen 9.1% this week and is now sitting near its 30-day high. The contract is pricing in the full weight of European storage concerns and Norwegian supply losses heading into the heating season. This is a material move; if you renew into winter, reviewing your options now makes sense.","gas":{"price":149.15,"day_pct":-1.901,"week_pct":9.08,"m30_pct":14.66,"trend":"rising","streak":{"dir":"down","days":1},"range_30d":{"low":128.96,"high":153.53,"position":0.822},"net_pct":14.7},"power":{"price":124.77,"day_pct":-0.45,"week_pct":7.01,"m30_pct":10.582,"trend":"rising","streak":{"dir":"down","days":1},"range_30d":{"low":112.38,"high":128.25,"position":0.781},"net_pct":10.6}},{"key":"sum27","label":"Sum-27","context":"Next summer (2027)","horizon_rank":2,"is_front":false,"stance":"review","note":"Summer-27 has climbed 5.3% this week but is still sitting in the upper half of its 30-day range, which has been rising gently. The move is more modest than front-month, reflecting the fact that summer demand is less tight than winter. No urgent action needed, but worth keeping an eye on as we move through the refill season.","gas":{"price":95.42,"day_pct":-1.293,"week_pct":5.33,"m30_pct":3.808,"trend":"rising","streak":{"dir":"up","days":2},"range_30d":{"low":86.74,"high":102.32,"position":0.557},"net_pct":3.8},"power":{"price":82.78,"day_pct":-0.16,"week_pct":2.26,"m30_pct":0.89,"trend":"rolling_over","streak":{"dir":"down","days":1},"range_30d":{"low":78.72,"high":88.93,"position":0.398},"net_pct":0.9}},{"key":"cal27","label":"Cal-27","context":"A full year (2027)","horizon_rank":3,"is_front":false,"stance":"review","note":"Cal-27 (full-year 2027) has risen 6.6% this week and is now near its 30-day high. The contract is reflecting the same underlying supply pressures as shorter-dated windows, but the move is more measured because it averages winter and summer. If you're planning a multi-year fix, reviewing the market now is prudent; there's no rush, but the direction is worth knowing.","gas":{"price":107.68,"day_pct":0.08,"week_pct":6.6,"m30_pct":6.783,"trend":"rising","streak":{"dir":"up","days":5},"range_30d":{"low":96.57,"high":107.68,"position":1},"net_pct":6.8},"power":{"price":92.76,"day_pct":-0.09,"week_pct":3.72,"m30_pct":4.272,"trend":"rising","streak":{"dir":"down","days":1},"range_30d":{"low":86.8,"high":93.45,"position":0.896},"net_pct":4.3}},{"key":"cal28","label":"Cal-28","context":"Two years out (2028)","horizon_rank":4,"is_front":false,"stance":"review","note":"Cal-28 (2028) has climbed 3.2% this week and is sitting near its 30-day high. This far-dated contract is moving more slowly than nearer-term windows, which is normal—it's less sensitive to immediate supply shocks. No action needed yet; keep up with our free daily updates so you'll be told if the picture changes.","gas":{"price":76.77,"day_pct":0.01,"week_pct":3.2,"m30_pct":5.424,"trend":"rising","streak":{"dir":"up","days":3},"range_30d":{"low":71.82,"high":76.77,"position":1},"net_pct":5.4},"power":{"price":72.54,"day_pct":-0.24,"week_pct":1.37,"m30_pct":3.569,"trend":"rising","streak":{"dir":"down","days":1},"range_30d":{"low":69.51,"high":72.72,"position":0.944},"net_pct":3.6}}],"spotlight":{"contract":"sep26","label":"Sep-26","fuel":"gas","metric":"30d","value":15.297,"dir":"up","trend":"rising","text":"Sep-26 gas has climbed 15.3% over the past month and is now at 148.48 p/therm, sitting in the upper half of its 30-day range. This week alone it's up 8.4%, driven by Middle East tensions and European storage at a decade low. The move is real, not speculative—it reflects genuine supply risk heading into winter."},"narrative":{"headline":"Gas and power both up 8–10% this week; geopolitical risk and tight supply keeping prices firm","summary":"Front-month contracts have climbed sharply as Middle East tensions and European storage constraints weigh on markets. All renewal windows are now flagged for review.","verdict":"Both fuels have moved materially higher this week and are sitting near their monthly peaks. If you're renewing soon, it's worth reviewing live quotes now rather than waiting—not because prices will spike further, but because you'll know where you stand rather than guessing.","trend_read":{"gas":"Gas has kept climbing across the week, up 8.4% from last Friday and now sitting in the upper half of its 30-day range. The rise reflects a month-long uptrend driven by geopolitical risk and tightening European storage.","power":"Power has also climbed steadily this week, up 7.8% and sitting near the top of its 30-day range. The move mirrors gas, with heat-driven demand and continental supply constraints (French nuclear, low river levels) reinforcing the upward pressure."},"scenario":{"upside":"If the Strait of Hormuz remains closed beyond this Sunday and LNG inflows to Europe continue to disappoint, European storage could fall further below 60% and prices could push higher as winter approaches and demand picks up.","downside":"If cooler weather arrives next week as forecast and eases cooling demand, or if a diplomatic breakthrough unexpectedly reopens the Strait, geopolitical risk premiums could unwind and prices could ease back—particularly in power, which is most sensitive to near-term weather."},"drivers":[{"title":"STRAIT OF HORMUZ DEADLINE LOOMS","body":"The 60-day negotiating window for reopening the Strait of Hormuz expires this Sunday with no agreement in sight. Iran is demanding financial compensation for war casualties and restrictions on US and Israeli vessels; the US is refusing. Meanwhile, Houthi attacks on shipping and US naval strikes have continued, keeping the route effectively closed and threatening global LNG supply at a time when Europe desperately needs it.","tone":"up","outlook":"sticks","soWhat":"This is a genuine supply risk that will likely persist at least through next week; it's not a temporary spike."},{"title":"EUROPEAN STORAGE AT DECADE LOW","body":"Gas storage across Europe is stuck at around 59% full—the lowest level for this date in more than ten years. Germany is at 48%, the Netherlands at 41%. LNG inflows have fallen short of expectations, and injection rates remain sluggish. Without a sustained pickup in LNG arrivals, storage is now expected to plateau at 70–75% before winter, leaving little margin for error.","tone":"up","outlook":"sticks","soWhat":"This is a structural constraint that will underpin prices through the refill season; it's not weather-dependent."},{"title":"NORWEGIAN SUPPLY LOSSES EXTEND","body":"Gassco has extended the partial outage at Ormen Lange until 1 February 2027, removing a key source of flexibility. This week, an unplanned outage at Kollsnes gas plant took a further 11 mcm/d offline. Together, these losses are tightening near-term supply and keeping upward pressure on prices.","tone":"up","outlook":"sticks","soWhat":"Both outages are scheduled or unplanned maintenance; they will persist, not fade."},{"title":"FRENCH NUCLEAR OFFLINE; DANUBE DROUGHT","body":"A heatwave across Europe has forced French nuclear plants to scale back generation (15% of capacity offline today due to warm cooling water). Extreme drought on the Danube River has forced generation cuts across Southeast Europe; Romania has shut its 1.4GW Cernavoda plant entirely. These constraints are tightening continental power supply and pushing prices higher.","tone":"up","outlook":"fades","soWhat":"Relief is expected early next week as temperatures drop sharply towards seasonal norms; this pressure should ease."},{"title":"WEAK WIND, STRONG SOLAR OFFSETTING","body":"Wind generation across the UK and Europe has been subdued (3–5 m/s), keeping upward pressure on gas-for-power demand. Strong solar output during daylight hours is providing some offset, but the net effect this week has been upward pressure on power prices.","tone":"mixed","outlook":"fades","soWhat":"Wind patterns are seasonal and variable; no structural change expected, just normal volatility."}]},"contracts":[{"key":"sep26","label":"Sep-26","type":"month","new_in_curve":false,"gas_price":148.48,"gas_day_pct":-1.799,"gas_week_pct":8.45,"gas_30d_pct":15.297,"power_price":122.48,"power_day_pct":-0.16,"power_week_pct":7.81,"power_30d_pct":10.721,"gas_trend":"rising","gas_range_30d":{"low":128.04,"high":155.42,"position":0.747},"gas_streak":{"dir":"down","days":1},"power_trend":"rising","power_range_30d":{"low":110.33,"high":127.88,"position":0.692},"power_streak":{"dir":"down","days":1}},{"key":"oct26","label":"Oct-26","type":"month","new_in_curve":false,"gas_price":149.28,"gas_day_pct":-1.731,"gas_week_pct":9.03,"gas_30d_pct":15.766,"power_price":120.03,"power_day_pct":-0.49,"power_week_pct":7.26,"power_30d_pct":10.831},{"key":"nov26","label":"Nov-26","type":"month","new_in_curve":false,"gas_price":152.38,"gas_day_pct":-1.646,"gas_week_pct":8.43,"gas_30d_pct":null,"power_price":130.43,"power_day_pct":-0.62,"power_week_pct":6.05,"power_30d_pct":null},{"key":"q426","label":"Q4-26","type":"quarter","new_in_curve":false,"gas_price":151.94,"gas_day_pct":-1.943,"gas_week_pct":8.78,"gas_30d_pct":15.289,"power_price":126.51,"power_day_pct":-0.47,"power_week_pct":6.82,"power_30d_pct":10.479},{"key":"q127","label":"Q1-27","type":"quarter","new_in_curve":false,"gas_price":146.3,"gas_day_pct":-1.812,"gas_week_pct":9.41,"gas_30d_pct":14.012,"power_price":122.99,"power_day_pct":-0.43,"power_week_pct":7.21,"power_30d_pct":10.682},{"key":"q227","label":"Q2-27","type":"quarter","new_in_curve":false,"gas_price":99.06,"gas_day_pct":0.68,"gas_week_pct":5.9,"gas_30d_pct":4.384,"power_price":84.84,"power_day_pct":-0.16,"power_week_pct":2.31,"power_30d_pct":0.772},{"key":"win26","label":"Win-26","type":"season","new_in_curve":false,"gas_price":149.15,"gas_day_pct":-1.901,"gas_week_pct":9.08,"gas_30d_pct":14.66,"power_price":124.77,"power_day_pct":-0.45,"power_week_pct":7.01,"power_30d_pct":10.582,"history":{"gas":[130.08,133.27,133.86,139.26,141.86,144.3,150.65,149.93,153.53,141.67,140.19,146.73,142.14,143.31,140.6,137.1,128.96,136.73,136.68,149.2,144.96,150.44,149.15],"power":[112.83,115.6,115.29,118.61,122.76,127.39,126.91,128.25,121.22,119.41,124,121.15,121.76,119.8,117.31,112.38,116.59,116.83,121.91,122.32,125.33,124.77]},"gas_trend":"rising","gas_range_30d":{"low":128.96,"high":153.53,"position":0.822},"gas_streak":{"dir":"down","days":1},"power_trend":"rising","power_range_30d":{"low":112.38,"high":128.25,"position":0.781},"power_streak":{"dir":"down","days":1}},{"key":"sum27","label":"Sum-27","type":"season","new_in_curve":false,"gas_price":95.42,"gas_day_pct":-1.293,"gas_week_pct":5.33,"gas_30d_pct":3.808,"power_price":82.78,"power_day_pct":-0.16,"power_week_pct":2.26,"power_30d_pct":0.89,"gas_trend":"rising","gas_range_30d":{"low":86.74,"high":102.32,"position":0.557},"gas_streak":{"dir":"up","days":2},"power_trend":"rolling_over","power_range_30d":{"low":78.72,"high":88.93,"position":0.398},"power_streak":{"dir":"down","days":1}},{"key":"win27","label":"Win-27","type":"season","new_in_curve":false,"gas_price":93.79,"gas_day_pct":-0.751,"gas_week_pct":4.74,"gas_30d_pct":2.75,"power_price":85.42,"power_day_pct":0.54,"power_week_pct":1.79,"power_30d_pct":2.447},{"key":"sum28","label":"Sum-28","type":"season","new_in_curve":false,"gas_price":69.25,"gas_day_pct":-0.18,"gas_week_pct":2.72,"gas_30d_pct":7.032,"power_price":null,"power_day_pct":null,"power_week_pct":null,"power_30d_pct":null},{"key":"cal27","label":"Cal-27","type":"calendar","new_in_curve":false,"gas_price":107.68,"gas_day_pct":0.08,"gas_week_pct":6.6,"gas_30d_pct":6.783,"power_price":92.76,"power_day_pct":-0.09,"power_week_pct":3.72,"power_30d_pct":4.272,"history":{"gas":[100.84,103.12,102.39,105.8,107.34,104.77,104.72,101.55,100.37,96.57,101.01,101.35,103.78,107.59,107.68],"power":[88.96,91.03,90.13,92.49,93.45,91.95,91.83,90.44,88.9,86.8,89.44,89.58,90.75,92.84,92.76]},"gas_trend":"rising","gas_range_30d":{"low":96.57,"high":107.68,"position":1},"gas_streak":{"dir":"up","days":5},"power_trend":"rising","power_range_30d":{"low":86.8,"high":93.45,"position":0.896},"power_streak":{"dir":"down","days":1}},{"key":"cal28","label":"Cal-28","type":"calendar","new_in_curve":false,"gas_price":76.77,"gas_day_pct":0.01,"gas_week_pct":3.2,"gas_30d_pct":5.424,"power_price":72.54,"power_day_pct":-0.24,"power_week_pct":1.37,"power_30d_pct":3.569,"history":{"gas":[72.82,73.59,72.92,74.33,76.69,75.71,75.78,73.46,73.7,71.82,74.38,74.04,74.69,76.76,76.77],"power":[70.04,71.17,70.54,71.64,72.72,71.99,71.83,70.95,70.09,69.51,71.56,71.5,71.63,72.71,72.54]},"gas_trend":"rising","gas_range_30d":{"low":71.82,"high":76.77,"position":1},"gas_streak":{"dir":"up","days":3},"power_trend":"rising","power_range_30d":{"low":69.51,"high":72.72,"position":0.944},"power_streak":{"dir":"down","days":1}},{"key":"cal29","label":"Cal-29","type":"calendar","new_in_curve":false,"gas_price":67.55,"gas_day_pct":0.05,"gas_week_pct":1.12,"gas_30d_pct":6.832,"power_price":67.15,"power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