{"schema":"1.4","as_of":"2026-08-07","settlement_date":"2026-08-06","signal":{"action":"HOLD","colour":"green","reason":"Gas and power both easing week-on-week. Gas -3.1% w/w, power -2.8% w/w.","gasSignal":"PRICES EASING","powerSignal":"PRICES EASING"},"moves":{"daily":{"gas_pct":1.89,"power_pct":3.57},"weekly":{"gas_pct":-3.15,"power_pct":-2.85},"monthly":{"gas_pct":14.07,"power_pct":10.04}},"spot":{"gas_price":137,"gas_change_pct":null,"power_price":113.34,"power_change_pct":null},"reference":{"contract":"Sum-27","gas_price":90.59,"power_price":80.95,"gas_day_pct":4.43,"gas_week_pct":-3.43,"gas_30d_pct":11.702,"power_day_pct":2.84,"power_week_pct":-2.9,"power_30d_pct":6.499},"front_month":{"key":"sep26","label":"Sep-26","gas":{"price":136.91,"day_pct":-0.175,"week_pct":-3.9,"m30_pct":21.947,"trend":"rolling_over","streak":{"dir":"up","days":1},"range_30d":{"low":112.27,"high":155.42,"position":0.571},"net_pct":21.9},"power":{"price":113.61,"day_pct":2.97,"week_pct":-5.28,"m30_pct":15.176,"trend":"rolling_over","streak":{"dir":"up","days":1},"range_30d":{"low":98.64,"high":127.88,"position":0.512},"net_pct":15.2}},"windows":[{"key":"sep26","label":"Sep-26","context":"In the next 1–3 months","horizon_rank":0,"is_front":true,"stance":"monitor","note":"Sep-26 has risen sharply over the month but started to slip back this week, falling 3.9% (gas) and 5.3% (power). Both sit mid-to-upper range for the month. The direction is mixed—no clear urgency yet, but worth keeping an eye on as the window approaches.","gas":{"price":136.91,"day_pct":-0.175,"week_pct":-3.9,"m30_pct":21.947,"trend":"rolling_over","streak":{"dir":"up","days":1},"range_30d":{"low":112.27,"high":155.42,"position":0.571},"net_pct":21.9},"power":{"price":113.61,"day_pct":2.97,"week_pct":-5.28,"m30_pct":15.176,"trend":"rolling_over","streak":{"dir":"up","days":1},"range_30d":{"low":98.64,"high":127.88,"position":0.512},"net_pct":15.2}},{"key":"win26","label":"Win-26","context":"Into winter 2026","horizon_rank":1,"is_front":false,"stance":"monitor","note":"Winter-26 mirrors the near-term picture: climbed earlier in the month, eased this week, and now sits in the upper half of its range. Mixed signals; no clear edge to act on yet. Keep watching as we move closer to the winter season.","gas":{"price":136.73,"day_pct":-1.697,"week_pct":-3.81,"m30_pct":19.144,"trend":"rolling_over","streak":{"dir":"up","days":1},"range_30d":{"low":114.76,"high":153.53,"position":0.567},"net_pct":19.1},"power":{"price":116.59,"day_pct":3.75,"week_pct":-3.76,"m30_pct":13.946,"trend":"rolling_over","streak":{"dir":"up","days":1},"range_30d":{"low":102.32,"high":128.25,"position":0.55},"net_pct":13.9}},{"key":"sum27","label":"Sum-27","context":"Next summer (2027)","horizon_rank":2,"is_front":false,"stance":"no_rush","note":"Summer-27 prices are sitting in the lower half of their 30-day range and have eased 2–3% this week. There is no rush to secure this window now; time is on your side. Watch our free daily updates if the market direction changes.","gas":{"price":90.59,"day_pct":4.43,"week_pct":-3.43,"m30_pct":11.702,"trend":"rolling_over","streak":{"dir":"up","days":1},"range_30d":{"low":81.1,"high":102.32,"position":0.447},"net_pct":11.7},"power":{"price":80.95,"day_pct":2.84,"week_pct":-2.9,"m30_pct":6.499,"trend":"rolling_over","streak":{"dir":"up","days":1},"range_30d":{"low":76.01,"high":88.93,"position":0.382},"net_pct":6.5}},{"key":"cal27","label":"Cal-27","context":"A full year (2027)","horizon_rank":3,"is_front":false,"stance":"review","note":"Calendar-27 has been climbing steadily and sits in the upper half of its range. Gas has risen 13.3% and power 8.8% over the month. If you are thinking about locking in a full-year contract, this is worth reviewing now—prices are near the top of where they have been, and waiting could mean paying more.","gas":{"price":101.01,"day_pct":4.6,"week_pct":-3.58,"m30_pct":13.278,"trend":"rolling_over","streak":{"dir":"up","days":1},"range_30d":{"low":89.17,"high":107.34,"position":0.652},"net_pct":13.3},"power":{"price":89.44,"day_pct":3.04,"week_pct":-2.73,"m30_pct":8.834,"trend":"rising","streak":{"dir":"up","days":1},"range_30d":{"low":82.18,"high":93.45,"position":0.644},"net_pct":8.8}},{"key":"cal28","label":"Cal-28","context":"Two years out (2028)","horizon_rank":4,"is_front":false,"stance":"review","note":"Calendar-28 is also climbing, sitting in the upper half of its range with gas up 7.5% and power up 5.7% over the month. Similar to Cal-27: if you are considering a two-year fix, it is worth reviewing live options now rather than waiting for a dip that may not come.","gas":{"price":74.38,"day_pct":3.57,"week_pct":-1.75,"m30_pct":7.517,"trend":"rising","streak":{"dir":"up","days":1},"range_30d":{"low":69.18,"high":76.69,"position":0.692},"net_pct":7.5},"power":{"price":71.56,"day_pct":2.95,"week_pct":-0.6,"m30_pct":5.717,"trend":"rising","streak":{"dir":"up","days":1},"range_30d":{"low":67.69,"high":72.72,"position":0.769},"net_pct":5.7}}],"spotlight":{"contract":"sep26","label":"Sep-26","fuel":"gas","metric":"pattern","value":21.947,"dir":"up","trend":"rolling_over","text":"Sep-26 gas has climbed 21.9% over the month but has started to slip back this week, falling 3.9%. The move reflects the earlier spike in geopolitical risk (Middle East tensions, supply concerns) and this week's easing as diplomatic progress emerged. The contract sits in the upper half of its range, suggesting the climb may be losing steam but the floor remains firm."},"narrative":{"headline":"Gas and power eased this week as geopolitical risk faded—but remain near their highs","summary":"Both fuels fell 3–5% across the week as Middle East tensions deflated, yet forward prices still sit well above where they were a month ago. The underlying picture—tight European storage, summer heat, and nuclear constraints—keeps the floor solid.","verdict":"Both near-term windows sit in mixed territory; longer-dated contracts are climbing and worth a review if you're thinking 12+ months ahead.","trend_read":{"gas":"Gas rose sharply earlier in the month, then started to slip back this week, falling 3.9% across the seven days. It now sits in the upper half of its 30-day range, suggesting the climb may be losing momentum but has not reversed.","power":"Power climbed steadily for most of the month, but has come off its highs this week, sliding 5.3% across the seven days. It sits mid-range for the month, caught between the earlier strength and this week's easing."},"scenario":{"upside":"If the Middle East agreement breaks down or Iran's Supreme Leader rejects the shipping deal, geopolitical risk could snap back into the market, pushing gas and power higher in a matter of days.","downside":"If the heatwave fades faster than forecast or wind generation strengthens across Europe, gas demand for power could ease, allowing storage to inject more aggressively and softening prices further."},"drivers":[{"title":"MIDDLE EAST TENSIONS EASE","body":"Reports of US-Iran diplomatic progress and a proposed Oman shipping agreement took the risk premium out of energy markets this week. Brent crude fell sharply early in the week before recovering slightly, and both gas and power followed the sentiment shift lower.","tone":"down","outlook":"mixed","soWhat":"The deal still awaits final approval from Iran's Supreme Leader; any breakdown in talks could reverse this week's gains."},{"title":"EUROPEAN SUMMER HEATWAVE PERSISTS","body":"Temperatures across France, Germany and the Netherlands have climbed 7–10 degrees above seasonal normal, driving strong cooling demand and sustained gas burn for power generation. This is expected to intensify into next week, keeping demand elevated.","tone":"up","outlook":"sticks","soWhat":"Expect gas and power to hold firm if the heatwave develops as forecast; any early cooling could ease pressure."},{"title":"NUCLEAR OUTAGES CONSTRAIN SUPPLY","body":"French reactors are being shut or curtailed by summer heat, and record-low water levels on the Rhine and Danube are restricting cooling for nuclear plants across Eastern Europe. This forces greater reliance on gas-fired generation at a time when storage is already tight.","tone":"up","outlook":"sticks","soWhat":"These constraints are structural (water levels, seasonal heat) and likely to persist through the summer; monitor weekly storage injection rates."},{"title":"EUROPEAN STORAGE AT CRITICAL LOWS","body":"Gas reserves stand at 58% full—the worst seasonal level in nearly two decades. Germany is at 47% and the Netherlands at 38%, well behind the pace needed for winter. Weak summer injections are compounding the shortfall.","tone":"up","outlook":"sticks","soWhat":"Storage trajectory is a key watch; any further slowdown in injections will tighten the market heading into autumn."},{"title":"UK WIND OUTPUT VARIABLE","body":"Wind generation is running slightly below seasonal normal this week but is forecast to strengthen mid-week before easing again. 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