Week of 7 Sept – 11 Sept 2026 Latest settlement: 10 September 2026
Weekly review · Week 37 · 7 Sept – 11 Sept 2026
The week in review: gas firmed 8.4%, power firmed 7.5%
A day-by-day recap of how UK gas and electricity moved across the trading week of 7 Sept – 11 Sept 2026, and where that leaves businesses approaching renewal.
Bigger picture
Still high over the six months held
Key risk
Middle east tensions escalate
The week in review
How the week actually moved
Not one day's snapshot — the whole week, day by day. Each line traces the front-month close from Monday to Friday, so you see the shape
of the week, not just where it ended.
Week of 7 Sept – 11 Sept 2026
Natural gas
The week in 5 days · p/therm
↑ 8.37%
vs last week
rose through the week · +14.7% Mon→Fri
Week avg
190.52 Week low
178.81 Week high
205.07
low 96.52Fri close · today ●205.07 high
Electricity
The week in 5 days · £/MWh
↑ 7.47%
vs last week
rose through the week · +12.5% Mon→Fri
Week avg
147.42 Week low
139.35 Week high
156.75
low 82.28Fri close · today ●156.75 high
What matters
One week rarely changes a renewal decision
The shape:
a week that fell then bounced tells you more than the net number.
Wider view:
the 6-month charts below show whether this week is a blip or a trend.
For buyers:
a good week doesn't reset your deadline — your contract end date still drives urgency.
Biggest move of the weekQ1-27
gas ↑ 16.02%
— the largest week-on-week swing across every contract we track.
Why prices moved
Forces pulling prices in both directions
A balanced view is more useful than a single prediction. These are the main influences in the latest report.
Pressure pulling prices lower
No clear downward drivers noted today.
Risks that could push prices higher
Middle east tensions escalate
US strikes on Iranian tankers, Iranian retaliation, and Houthi seizure of the Red Sea port of Mokha have sent Brent crude toward $109/bbl and effectively choked off the Strait of Hormuz. Roughly one-fifth of global LNG supply remains disrupted, and White House warnings suggest tensions could persist well beyond January 2029.
Qatar force majeure cuts european supply
Qatar has suspended LNG shipments and extended force majeure declarations through the autumn, eliminating a crucial source of replacement volumes at a time when European storage is critically low. Asian spot LNG is pulling further ahead of European prices as Bangladesh and other buyers secure cargoes from flexible Atlantic suppliers, drawing volumes away from Europe.
European storage at historic lows
EU gas storage stands at 67.64% of capacity, but the picture is far grimmer in key markets: Germany is at just 55.16% (the lowest for this time of year on record), the Netherlands at 51.09%, and the UK at 31.31%. German industry warnings suggest hitting the 70% November target on commercial terms is now unrealistic, requiring injection rates that cannot be sustained.
Norwegian pipeline maintenance ongoing
Planned maintenance across Troll, Kollsnes, and Åsgard continues to keep roughly 30 mcm/d offline. Gassco has announced further restrictions at Kollsnes, bringing total unavailability at that plant to 29 mcm/d.
Wind generation collapsing into weekend
UK wind output is expected to drop from over 17 GW this week to 7–8 GW by Thursday, forcing gas-for-power burn to jump 19 mcm/d to 41 mcm/d. German wind is plunging even more sharply, from 15.6 GW down to 5.5 GW on Thursday and 3.2 GW on Friday. This forces thermal generation to fill the gap at a time when gas is already tight.
French hydro reserves at 1997 lows
French hydroelectric reserves have fallen to 2.03 TWh, representing just 56.4% of capacity and the lowest level for this time of year since 1997. River cooling restrictions continue to constrain the nuclear fleet, keeping hydro generation near four-year lows.
German grid security incidents ongoing
A third sabotage incident at a German substation in Dormagen occurred this week, building on earlier attacks that tripped 4.2 GW of coal generation near Rommerskirchen. Grid operators remain on heightened alert.
6-month direction
Was this week a blip or a trend?
The week-on-week number tells you the direction; these 6-month lines tell you whether it's part of a bigger move. Each tracks a rolling maturity — the near-term price, the next winter and the year ahead — so nothing breaks as contracts roll off. Hover for the value on any day.
Gas forward prices
Rolling maturities · p/therm
Near-term (Oct-26)
Next winter (Win-26)
Year ahead (Cal-27)
Each line is a rolling maturity — the near-term line always follows the current front month, so it never breaks as contracts roll off.
Power forward prices
Rolling maturities · £/MWh
Near-term (Oct-26)
Next winter (Win-26)
Year ahead (Cal-27)
Power tends to track gas; the chart shows how far the recent move has carried.
Your renewal window
Guidance grouped by how soon your contract ends
Timing urgency comes from your deadline; the market view comes from the forward contracts covering each renewal's supply period. Open your band for separate gas and electricity evidence.
Timing and value are different.
Wholesale prices are currently rising. If your contract ends within three months, still get live quotes now — your decision window is shortening. Later renewals have more time to monitor the market.
1–3 monthsOctober–December 2026
Oct 2026Nov 2026Dec 2026
Get live quotes now
Gas is up 11.6–16% this week and up 40.1–49.6% over 30 days; electricity up 9.4–14.1% this week, up 29.6–36.5% over 30 days.
⌄
Evidence confidenceMedium
⚠ December leans on Cal-27 only, so it has less seasonal visibility.
Your deadline creates the urgency. Use the current move to compare live supplier quotes now, but don't treat one falling day as proof the market has reached its bottom.
4–6 monthsJanuary–March 2027
Jan 2027Feb 2027Mar 2027
Review and compare
Gas is up 11.6–16% this week and up 42.3–49.6% over 30 days; electricity up 9.4–14.1% this week, up 29.6–36.5% over 30 days.
⌄
Evidence confidenceMedium
GasNear the top
Rising
This week
Up 11.6–16% 30 days
Up 42.3–49.6%
low 57.84Sum-27 · today ●136.52 high
Evidence:
Q1-27, Sum-27, Win-27
ElectricityNear the top
Rising
This week
Up 9.4–14.1% 30 days
Up 29.6–36.5%
low 59.74Sum-27 · today ●108.00 high
Evidence:
Q1-27, Sum-27, Win-27
What this means
Start reviewing the market and compare 12-, 24- and 36-month options. You have time for a considered decision, so weigh the certainty each term buys rather than chasing a perfect day.
7–9 monthsApril–June 2027
Apr 2027May 2027Jun 2027
Prepare and monitor
Gas is up 4.5–15.2% this week and up 20.5–50.9% over 30 days; electricity up 4.3–10.4% this week, up 15.2–34.8% over 30 days.
⌄
Evidence confidenceMedium
GasNear the top
Rising
This week
Up 4.5–15.2% 30 days
Up 20.5–50.9%
low 65.81Win-27 · today ●129.25 high
Evidence:
Q2-27, Sum-27, Win-27, Sum-28
ElectricityNear the top
Rising
This week
Up 4.3–10.4% 30 days
Up 15.2–34.8%
low 74.51Win-27 · today ●108.67 high
Evidence:
Q2-27, Sum-27, Win-27, Cal-28
What this means
Get usage and site details ready, monitor the relevant forward contracts and use indicative quotes to understand the range. No need to force a decision while visibility is adequate.
10–12 monthsJuly–September 2027
Jul 2027Aug 2027Sep 2027
Plan ahead and watch
Gas is up 4.5–14.2% this week and up 20.5–49.6% over 30 days; electricity up 4.3–9.9% this week, up 15.2–33.8% over 30 days.
⌄
Evidence confidenceMedium
GasNear the top
Rising
This week
Up 4.5–14.2% 30 days
Up 20.5–49.6%
low 65.81Win-27 · today ●129.25 high
Evidence:
Sum-27, Win-27, Sum-28
ElectricityNear the top
Rising
This week
Up 4.3–9.9% 30 days
Up 15.2–33.8%
low 74.51Win-27 · today ●108.67 high
Evidence:
Sum-27, Win-27, Cal-28
What this means
Plan your procurement timetable and stay informed. Far-dated products can hide seasonal detail, so a firm buy-or-wait instruction would be false precision at this stage.
The honest read
Gas and power are not moving together. That makes any single read of the market less reliable.
And wholesale is only part of a quote — non-energy charges, credit, volume and shape all move the final rate. The practical decision is how much further movement your business can tolerate before its contract deadline.
If prices ease further
Wind, milder weather and diplomacy help
If Middle East tensions ease or a ceasefire emerges, LNG supply could resume and Qatari cargoes could flow back into European markets. Wind recovery from 16 September onward could ease immediate thermal pressure and allow gas prices to ease back from their current highs.
If prices rise again
Low storage leaves little cushion
If Qatari force majeure extends further into winter or if additional geopolitical disruption affects LNG shipping routes, European storage will fall even further behind its injection targets, forcing prices higher still to ration demand.
Fixing buys budget certainty. It does not prove that a business has predicted the market correctly.
Where the week ended across every contract — kept for readers who want the detail.
Open gas and electricity forward tables Monthly, quarterly, seasonal and annual contracts · week-ending close
View data ⌄
Gas
p/therm
Contract
Price
Day
Week
30d
Oct-26
month
205.07
↑ 3.74%
↑ 15.21%
↑ 41.61%
Nov-26
month
207.79
↑ 3.80%
↑ 14.75%
↑ 40.06%
Dec-26
month
209.11
↑ 3.75%
↑ 14.57%
—
Q4-26
quarter
207.32
↑ 3.76%
↑ 14.84%
↑ 40.38%
Q1-27
quarter
204.58
↑ 4.23%
↑ 16.02%
↑ 43.89%
Q2-27
quarter
143.09
↑ 4.46%
↑ 15.23%
↑ 50.92%
Win-26
season
205.97
↑ 3.99%
↑ 15.42%
↑ 42.09%
Sum-27
season
136.52
↑ 4.24%
↑ 14.18%
↑ 49.61%
Win-27
season
129.25
↑ 3.33%
↑ 11.55%
↑ 42.35%
Sum-28
season
81.34
↑ 2.03%
↑ 4.48%
↑ 20.54%
Cal-27
calendar
151.85
↑ 4.07%
↑ 14.28%
↑ 46.32%
Cal-28
calendar
94.35
↑ 2.37%
↑ 6.47%
↑ 26.32%
Cal-29
calendar
74.71
↑ 1.56%
↑ 2.44%
↑ 11.97%
Electricity
£/MWh
Contract
Price
Day
Week
30d
Oct-26
month
156.75
↑ 3.13%
↑ 11.91%
↑ 33.22%
Nov-26
month
167.70
↑ 3.31%
↑ 12.10%
↑ 30.61%
Dec-26
month
166.20
↑ 3.53%
↑ 12.13%
—
Q4-26
quarter
163.50
↑ 3.32%
↑ 12.05%
↑ 31.76%
Q1-27
quarter
164.48
↑ 3.45%
↑ 14.09%
↑ 36.48%
Q2-27
quarter
111.56
↑ 4.26%
↑ 10.40%
↑ 34.80%
Win-26
season
163.99
↑ 3.39%
↑ 13.05%
↑ 34.07%
Sum-27
season
108.00
↑ 3.93%
↑ 9.85%
↑ 33.76%
Win-27
season
108.67
↑ 3.03%
↑ 9.38%
↑ 29.59%
Cal-27
calendar
122.62
↑ 3.54%
↑ 11.08%
↑ 35.12%
Cal-28
calendar
82.53
↑ 1.74%
↑ 4.31%
↑ 15.22%
Cal-29
calendar
72.48
↑ 1.57%
↑ 3.07%
↑ 8.62%
Fixed-term choices
Contract length is a risk decision, not a forecast
No term protects against every outcome. Weigh the certainty the business wants against how soon it is willing to return to the market.
12
months
More flexibility if markets fall, but the business returns to the market sooner.
Shorter budget certainty
Earlier exposure to the next renewal
Useful where flexibility matters most
24
months
A middle ground between price certainty and revisiting the market.
Two-year budgeting
Less frequent procurement
Still allows a medium-term review
36
months
Greater certainty, but a longer commitment if markets later fall.
Longest budget protection
Reduced exposure to near-term shocks
Higher opportunity cost if prices drop
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Gas 12.3% w/w, power 10.3% w/w.","gasSignal":"PRICES RISING","powerSignal":"PRICES RISING"},"moves":{"daily":{"gas_pct":3.49,"power_pct":3.18},"weekly":{"gas_pct":12.26,"power_pct":10.28},"monthly":{"gas_pct":38.01,"power_pct":29.38}},"spot":{"gas_price":205.25,"gas_change_pct":null,"power_price":176,"power_change_pct":null},"reference":{"contract":"Sum-27","gas_price":136.52,"power_price":108,"gas_day_pct":4.238,"gas_week_pct":14.18,"gas_30d_pct":49.611,"power_day_pct":3.926,"power_week_pct":9.85,"power_30d_pct":33.763},"front_month":{"key":"oct26","label":"Oct-26","gas":{"price":205.07,"day_pct":3.744,"week_pct":15.21,"m30_pct":41.613,"trend":"rising","streak":{"dir":"up","days":5},"range_30d":{"low":144.81,"high":205.07,"position":1},"net_pct":41.6},"power":{"price":156.75,"day_pct":3.125,"week_pct":11.91,"m30_pct":33.223,"trend":"rising","streak":{"dir":"up","days":4},"range_30d":{"low":117.66,"high":156.75,"position":1},"net_pct":33.2}},"windows":[{"key":"oct26","label":"Oct-26","context":"In the next 1–3 months","horizon_rank":0,"is_front":true,"stance":"review","note":"Oct-26 gas and power are both at the highest levels in our records and have risen five and four days running respectively. Anyone renewing in the next 1–3 months is paying substantially more than they would have a month ago; the cheaper window has closed. Review live options now to understand what fixing costs, rather than waiting for further falls that may not come.","gas":{"price":205.07,"day_pct":3.744,"week_pct":15.21,"m30_pct":41.613,"trend":"rising","streak":{"dir":"up","days":5},"range_30d":{"low":144.81,"high":205.07,"position":1},"net_pct":41.6},"power":{"price":156.75,"day_pct":3.125,"week_pct":11.91,"m30_pct":33.223,"trend":"rising","streak":{"dir":"up","days":4},"range_30d":{"low":117.66,"high":156.75,"position":1},"net_pct":33.2}}],"spotlight":{"contract":"oct26","label":"Oct-26","fuel":"gas","metric":"30d","value":41.613,"dir":"up","trend":"rising","text":"Oct-26 gas has climbed 41.6% over the past month and sits at 205.07 p/therm—the highest level we hold records for. This week alone it rose 15.2% with no pullback, driven by geopolitical supply disruption and European storage sitting well below seasonal norms. The steady climb with no give-back tells the story: this is not a spike to be waited out, but a repricing of the market's view of winter supply tightness."},"narrative":{"headline":"Both fuels hit highest levels on record this week; near-term contracts climbing hardest","summary":"Gas and power have risen steadily through the week with no pullback, driven by Middle East tensions, supply disruption, and European storage deficits. Every contract across both curves closed at the highest level we hold records for.","verdict":"Anyone renewing in the next three months is paying substantially more than they would have a month ago; those fixing longer-dated contracts should review options now rather than wait.","trend_read":{"gas":"Gas has kept climbing steadily through the month and sits at the highest level in our records. This week it rose every single session with no give-back, pushing 15.2% higher and ending near the top of its 30-day range.","power":"Power has followed the same path, rising steadily through the month and closing at record highs. This week it climbed every session, up 11.9% on the week, and is now sitting at the highest level we hold."},"scenario":{"upside":"If Qatari force majeure extends further into winter or if additional geopolitical disruption affects LNG shipping routes, European storage will fall even further behind its injection targets, forcing prices higher still to ration demand.","downside":"If Middle East tensions ease or a ceasefire emerges, LNG supply could resume and Qatari cargoes could flow back into European markets. Wind recovery from 16 September onward could ease immediate thermal pressure and allow gas prices to ease back from their current highs."},"drivers":[{"title":"MIDDLE EAST TENSIONS ESCALATE","body":"US strikes on Iranian tankers, Iranian retaliation, and Houthi seizure of the Red Sea port of Mokha have sent Brent crude toward $109/bbl and effectively choked off the Strait of Hormuz. Roughly one-fifth of global LNG supply remains disrupted, and White House warnings suggest tensions could persist well beyond January 2029.","tone":"up","outlook":"sticks","soWhat":"Geopolitical supply risk is now priced into every contract on the curve and is unlikely to ease in the near term."},{"title":"QATAR FORCE MAJEURE CUTS EUROPEAN SUPPLY","body":"Qatar has suspended LNG shipments and extended force majeure declarations through the autumn, eliminating a crucial source of replacement volumes at a time when European storage is critically low. Asian spot LNG is pulling further ahead of European prices as Bangladesh and other buyers secure cargoes from flexible Atlantic suppliers, drawing volumes away from Europe.","tone":"up","outlook":"sticks","soWhat":"European buyers are now competing directly with Asia for every available cargo, and replacement LNG is scarce and expensive."},{"title":"EUROPEAN STORAGE AT HISTORIC LOWS","body":"EU gas storage stands at 67.64% of capacity, but the picture is far grimmer in key markets: Germany is at just 55.16% (the lowest for this time of year on record), the Netherlands at 51.09%, and the UK at 31.31%. German industry warnings suggest hitting the 70% November target on commercial terms is now unrealistic, requiring injection rates that cannot be sustained.","tone":"up","outlook":"sticks","soWhat":"Storage deficits will continue to support prices through the injection season and into winter."},{"title":"NORWEGIAN PIPELINE MAINTENANCE ONGOING","body":"Planned maintenance across Troll, Kollsnes, and Åsgard continues to keep roughly 30 mcm/d offline. Gassco has announced further restrictions at Kollsnes, bringing total unavailability at that plant to 29 mcm/d.","tone":"up","outlook":"fades","soWhat":"This is a known constraint but temporary; supply will return once maintenance concludes."},{"title":"WIND GENERATION COLLAPSING INTO WEEKEND","body":"UK wind output is expected to drop from over 17 GW this week to 7–8 GW by Thursday, forcing gas-for-power burn to jump 19 mcm/d to 41 mcm/d. German wind is plunging even more sharply, from 15.6 GW down to 5.5 GW on Thursday and 3.2 GW on Friday. This forces thermal generation to fill the gap at a time when gas is already tight.","tone":"up","outlook":"fades","soWhat":"Wind relief is forecast from Wednesday 16 September onward; the acute tightness is concentrated in the next few days."},{"title":"FRENCH HYDRO RESERVES AT 1997 LOWS","body":"French hydroelectric reserves have fallen to 2.03 TWh, representing just 56.4% of capacity and the lowest level for this time of year since 1997. River cooling restrictions continue to constrain the nuclear fleet, keeping hydro generation near four-year lows.","tone":"up","outlook":"mixed","soWhat":"France is running short on dispatchable generation and will rely heavily on thermal and imports through the tightness."},{"title":"GERMAN GRID SECURITY INCIDENTS ONGOING","body":"A third sabotage incident at a German substation in Dormagen occurred this week, building on earlier attacks that tripped 4.2 GW of coal generation near Rommerskirchen. 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