⚠️ Weekend update: Peace talks collapsed. US naval blockade of Hormuz announced Monday. This weekly data is from Friday's close — before the collapse. See today's daily report for live pricing. Full conflict analysis →
The ceasefire week — biggest swing since the conflict
The most dramatic week since Operation Epic Fury. A ceasefire crashed gas 14% on Wednesday — then doubts crept in. No LNG tankers through Hormuz. Gas down 10% on the week at Friday's close. But over the weekend, peace talks collapsed and the US announced a naval blockade of Hormuz — these prices are already out of date.
Gas fell sharply this week on the ceasefire but bounced on Friday. The 30-day trend is mixed — Sum-27 down 1% but the ceasefire is fragile and no LNG has passed through Hormuz. The ceasefire crash took prices down but didn't reverse the broader conflict premium. Cooler weather and weaker wind forecast next week could push prices higher again.
Power fell less steeply than gas this week — Sum-27 down 4.1% vs gas down 9.5%. Higher carbon prices and weaker European wind limited the falls. The 30-day trend is down 2.8% which is encouraging, but the ceasefire uncertainty means this could reverse quickly. UK wind was strong mid-week (Storm Dave) but is forecast to weaken.
Since this data was published, the situation has escalated significantly. Peace talks in Pakistan collapsed over the weekend. The US has announced a naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz starting Monday afternoon. Oil is back above $100/bbl. Power spot is up ~20% this morning.
All prices and trends in this weekly review reflect Friday 10 April settlement — before the collapse. Today's reality is very different. Expect significant repricing across all contracts.
For live pricing and analysis, see today's daily market report →
What Happened This Week
This was the most dramatic week since the conflict began on 28 February. Four trading days — and the market covered more ground than most months.
Tuesday (Day 38): Markets reopened after Easter to Trump's Hormuz ultimatum — reopen by 8pm or face attacks on power facilities. Gas jumped 4% to 94.55p. Oil hit $111. Power spot dropped 22% on Storm Dave wind. The market was bracing for the worst.
Wednesday (Day 39): The ceasefire. Agreed overnight, conditional on Iran opening Hormuz. Gas crashed 14% — the biggest single-day move since Operation Epic Fury. Oil fell 10% to $93. The market exhaled. But: Ras Laffan still 17% offline for years. Mines still in Hormuz. Storage at 28%. A window, not a resolution.
Thursday (Day 40): Reality set in. Iran claimed Israeli strikes on Lebanon breached the deal. No clear shipping increase through Hormuz. Gas edged slightly higher. Oil up 3%. The 14% crash held but the market turned cautious.
Friday (Day 41): The first settlement rise since the ceasefire — gas +1.6%, power +1.3%. But then profit-taking drove sharp falls in the afternoon session, with gas ending down 5.5% on the day. No LNG tankers confirmed through Hormuz. Reports of transit charges. The week ended lower but the direction had started to turn.
What Moved the Market
Gas Forward Prices
Wholesale rates at Friday's close. Your business rate will be higher.
| Contract | Price | Week | 30d |
|---|---|---|---|
| May-26 | 109.69 | -8.9% | -14.1% |
| Sum-27 | 82.19 | -9.5% | -1.0% |
| Win-27 | 82.03 | -9.6% | -1.8% |
| Q3-26 | 107.00 | -9.4% | -11.2% |
| Q4-26 | 110.49 | -9.0% | -9.3% |
| Cal-27 | 88.63 | -8.2% | -3.7% |
| Cal-28 | 69.17 | -5.5% | +2.8% |
Gas Price Trend
UK wholesale gas prices — 5 weeks of trading data. Ends at Friday's close, before the weekend's peace talks collapse.
Power Forward Prices
Wholesale rates at Friday's close. Your business rate will be higher.
| Contract | Price | Week | 30d |
|---|---|---|---|
| May-26 | 86.77 | -6.6% | -9.3% |
| Sum-27 | 70.58 | -4.1% | -2.8% |
| Win-27 | 75.15 | -3.9% | — |
| Q3-26 | 89.52 | -5.8% | -5.9% |
| Q4-26 | 90.42 | -6.0% | -5.1% |
| Cal-27 | 76.81 | -5.2% | -3.6% |
| Cal-28 | 67.05 | -2.6% | +3.5% |
Power Price Trend
UK wholesale electricity prices — 5 weeks of trading data. Ends at Friday's close, before the weekend's peace talks collapse.
When Should I Renew?
Based on 30-day price trends and this week's movements.
Gas fell 9.5% this week on the ceasefire — a big move. But the ceasefire has now collapsed and the US has announced a Hormuz blockade. These Friday prices are pre-collapse. Monday's settlement will be higher. If you got a quote last week at these lower rates, check if it's still available. If not, get a fresh quote — but be aware today's market has moved significantly.
Winter gas was down 1.8% over 30 days at Friday's close. But the US blockade of Hormuz makes the storage refill challenge (29% → 80% by November) significantly harder. With Ras Laffan offline and Hormuz now actively blocked, winter contracts are likely to climb from here. Worth getting a quote to benchmark, but expect higher prices than Friday's data shows.
Longer-dated contracts are still below near-term rates — Cal-27 gas at 88.63p vs 109.69p for May-26 at Friday's close. The market still expects eventual normalisation. But Cal-28 gas is up 2.8% in 30 days, and the US blockade will push longer-dated contracts higher too as structural supply concerns deepen. These Friday prices may prove to be the low point.
Situation Changing Fast —
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Source: ICE Endex / SEFE daily reports
⚠️ Peace talks collapsed over the weekend. See today's daily report for current pricing.
Smart Energy Company — Independent energy broker since 2014
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