⚠️ Weekend update: Iran reclosed the Strait of Hormuz over the weekend after the US naval blockade. US seized an Iranian cargo ship Sunday. This weekly data is from Friday's close (17 Apr) — before the escalation. See today's daily report for live pricing. Full conflict analysis →
The recovery week — biggest falls of the conflict
The most sustained downward move since the conflict began. Trump hinted at Pakistan talks on Wednesday and the market priced in de-escalation fast — gas down 17% on May-26 mid-week. By Friday's close the ceasefire was holding, Hormuz was reportedly reopening, and 30-day trends had reached -27% on gas and -14% on power. But the weekend reversed everything.
Gas had the best week of the conflict — down 11.5% on May-26 and 5.1% on Sum-27. The 30-day trend reached -27% on Sum-27 and -38% on May-26 from the March peaks. Trump's Wednesday talks hint drove the biggest single-day move, amplified by warm weather and strong Norwegian flows doubling to 30 mcm. Friday closed with Thursday's modest bounce digested. But the weekend's Hormuz reclosure and US vessel seizure have put sharp upward pressure on Monday's open.
Power fell less steeply than gas again. Sum-27 ended flat on the week while gas dropped 5.1% — power has been stickier through this conflict because of carbon pricing and the 2028 CPS removal. 30-day trend still comfortably down at -14%. UK wind was strong mid-week helping contain prices but is forecast to weaken next week with cooler weather. Weekend escalation bounced power spot 23% this morning.
Since this data was published, the situation has reversed. Iran reclosed the Strait of Hormuz over the weekend in response to the US naval blockade. The US seized an Iranian cargo ship on Sunday — Iran claims this breaks the ceasefire. Further attacks on commercial vessels reported. Gas spot is up 6.6% this morning; power spot up 23%.
All prices and trends in this weekly review reflect Friday 17 April settlement — before the weekend escalation. Pakistan talks scheduled for today but Iran attendance is uncertain. Today's talks will define the rest of the week.
For live pricing and analysis, see today's daily market report →
What Happened This Week
Week 7 (Days 44–48) was the mirror image of Week 6. Where Week 6 brought the first ceasefire crash and then the collapse, Week 7 delivered the sustained de-escalation the market had been waiting for — at least until the weekend.
Monday (Day 44): Opened to Day 2 of the US naval blockade after the previous weekend's ceasefire collapse. Power spot up 20%. But forward contracts only moved 3–6% — warm weather was already doing work on the demand side.
Tuesday (Day 45): Blockade in effect but loosely enforced. At least one tanker reportedly passed through Hormuz. Weather kept winning the fundamentals argument.
Wednesday (Day 46): The pivot. Trump hinted at talks resuming in Islamabad "within two days." Oil dropped below $100 to ~$95. Gas down 17% on the week on May-26 — the biggest weekly fall of the conflict. Power spot crashed 28%. Warm weather and diplomatic hopes aligned.
Thursday (Day 47): Peak optimism. Ceasefire holding, talks progressing to formal discussions. Ships reportedly moving through Hormuz. Norwegian flows to Netherlands doubled to 30 mcm. UK system oversupplied — injecting into storage, exporting to Europe. 30-day trends reached their best since the conflict began.
Friday (Day 48): Modest bounce — gas up 3.5%, power up 3.1% on settlement. Fundamentals reasserting: Dutch storage at 7%, cooler weather forecast next week. Israel-Lebanon 10-day ceasefire agreed. Weekend talks scheduled. Week closed down but the weekend was the pivotal test.
Then the weekend. Iran reclosed Hormuz. The US seized an Iranian cargo ship Sunday. Further vessel attacks. The neat de-escalation narrative didn't survive past Friday's close.
What Moved the Market
Gas Forward Prices
Wholesale rates at Friday's close. Your business rate will be higher.
| Contract | Price | Week | 30d |
|---|---|---|---|
| May-26 | 97.11 | -11.5% | -37.7% |
| Sum-27 | 77.99 | -5.1% | -27.2% |
| Win-27 | 79.55 | -3.0% | -24.5% |
| Q3-26 | 94.61 | -11.6% | -36.9% |
| Q4-26 | 99.18 | -10.2% | -34.9% |
| Cal-27 | 83.28 | -6.0% | -28.7% |
| Cal-28 | 67.88 | -1.9% | -15.1% |
Gas Price Trend
UK wholesale gas prices — 5 weeks of trading data. Ends at Friday's close, before the weekend escalation.
Power Forward Prices
Wholesale rates at Friday's close. Your business rate will be higher.
| Contract | Price | Week | 30d |
|---|---|---|---|
| May-26 | 82.28 | -5.2% | -24.7% |
| Sum-27 | 70.60 | 0.0% | -13.8% |
| Win-27 | 75.15 | -2.3% | — |
| Q3-26 | 84.06 | -6.1% | -22.2% |
| Q4-26 | 87.78 | -2.9% | -20.1% |
| Cal-27 | 76.10 | -0.9% | -17.1% |
| Cal-28 | 65.63 | -2.9% | -8.9% |
Power Price Trend
UK wholesale electricity prices — 5 weeks of trading data. Ends at Friday's close, before the weekend escalation.
When Should I Renew?
Based on 30-day price trends and this week's movements — and the weekend escalation context.
Gas down 5.1% this week and 27% over 30 days — the best 30-day picture of the conflict at Friday's close. But the weekend escalation is pushing near-term contracts hardest. If you got a quote Friday at these rates, check if it's still available. If not, get a fresh quote today — but be prepared for Monday rates to be meaningfully higher. Today's Pakistan talks outcome will define the week.
Winter gas down 24.5% over 30 days at Friday's close — a substantial improvement. But Dutch storage at 7% is critically low, and with Hormuz reclosed over the weekend the storage refill challenge (Europe needs to reach 80% by November) just got materially harder. Winter pricing was improving on the diplomatic story — now that story is in question. Worth benchmarking but expect higher rates than Friday's numbers.
Longer-dated contracts are far below near-term rates — Cal-27 gas at 83.28p vs 97.11p for May-26 at Friday's close. The market expects eventual normalisation. Cal-27 gas down 28.7% over 30 days and Cal-28 down 15%. These contracts are less exposed to this week's spot volatility than near-term months, but the weekend news does affect them too. If you're renewing 12+ months out, the picture remains favourable — get quotes to benchmark.
Volatile Market —
Know Where You Stand
We compare prices from 28+ UK suppliers. No pressure, no scare tactics — just honest advice.
Get Your Free Quote →Or call: 0151 459 3388 · ⭐ 100% five-star Trustpilot reviews
Source: ICE Endex / SEFE daily reports
⚠️ Weekend escalation (Hormuz reclosed, US seized Iranian vessel). See today's daily report for current pricing.
Smart Energy Company — Independent energy broker since 2014
More Market
Intelligence
160+ articles updated every trading day. Free to read, no sign-up required.
