Contracts rolled. Near-term turned negative over 30 days. Gas fell 6% twice — weather beat geopolitics. But storage at 28% and Ras Laffan offline for years. Full conflict analysis →
Contracts Roll, Near-Term Turns Negative — The Conflict Premium Unwinds
The week the reference contract changed. April expired. May took front month. Sum-26 replaced by Sum-27. Gas fell 6% twice — despite Trump warning he'd hit Iran "extremely hard." Weather beat geopolitics. Near-term contracts turned negative over 30 days for the first time since the conflict began. The curve is normalising fast.
💡 Near-term contracts turned negative over 30 days for the first time — May-26 gas down 11%, power down 13%. The conflict premium is unwinding at the front of the curve.
This Week vs Last Week
Gas Price Trend
Sum-27 forward price over the last 30 trading days.
Power Price Trend
Sum-27 power forward price over the last 30 trading days.
What Happened
This was the week everything shifted. Not because of a headline — because of a calendar. April expired on Tuesday. May took front month at 128p. The seasonal reference rolled from Sum-26 to Sum-27. And the new reference immediately fell: down 6.1% on Wednesday on contract rollover pressure and reports of possible US-Iran diplomatic talks, then down another 5.7% on Thursday despite Trump warning he'd hit Iran "extremely hard."
The market's message was clear: weather beats geopolitics. North West Europe saw temperatures 5°C above seasonal averages. Wind generation strengthened. Heating demand collapsed. Traders closed positions ahead of Easter. None of that cared about Trump's rhetoric.
The most significant development wasn't the daily moves — it was what happened to the 30-day picture. Near-term contracts turned negative over 30 days for the first time since the conflict began. May-26 gas down 11%. May-26 power down 13%. Jun-26 gas down 7%. The conflict premium hasn't just stopped growing — it's been given back entirely at the front of the curve.
Further out, the picture is different. Sum-27 still up 23% over 30 days. Win-27 gas up 28%. Q4-26 up 5%. The structural damage (Ras Laffan, Hormuz, storage at 28%) is still priced into the longer-dated contracts. But the near-term normalisation is happening faster than anyone expected.
Key Days
Friday 3 Apr — Good Friday. Markets closed.
What Moved the Market
Where Prices Closed
Week-close prices for key contracts. Gas in p/therm, power in £/MWh.
When Should I Renew?
Based on where the week closed and the 30-day trend.
Both fuels negative on the week and the sell-off accelerating. Near-term May-26 now negative over 30 days for both fuels. Sum-27 still up 23% gas and 7% power — but the direction is firmly lower. A decent window to get quotes as a benchmark. Structural risks (storage, Ras Laffan) haven't changed but the market has stopped paying a daily premium for them.
Win-27 gas still up 29% in 30 days despite this week's 6.6% fall. Power is a new contract — no 30-day history. Winter is most sensitive to the storage refill challenge (28% → 80%). Gas-heavy businesses should have a benchmark quote ready. Power can watch.
If your contract doesn't end until 2027 or beyond, you have time — and the curve is working in your favour. Cal-27 gas at 97.99p is already 22% below current near-term rates (May-26 at 120p). Cal-28 at 73.17p is 39% below. The market expects prices to normalise as infrastructure is rebuilt and supply recovers — but it still has a significant conflict premium baked in (Cal-27 up 22% in 30 days). No rush to act. Follow the market and look for a clearer signal that the premium is easing further.
What to Watch
Markets are closed Friday–Monday for Easter. When they reopen Tuesday, the big question is whether the sell-off resumes or the diplomatic/geopolitical picture changes the direction. Warm weather should persist into early next week (5°C above average) before turning cooler into mid-April. Wind strengthening. Norwegian maintenance ahead but minor.
The structural picture hasn't changed: storage at 28% vs the 80% target, Ras Laffan 17% offline for years, Hormuz still closed. Trump's rhetoric is escalating, not de-escalating. But the market has shown this week that near-term fundamentals (weather, wind, positioning) can override the geopolitical noise. Follow our daily market reports for the latest when trading resumes.
Near-Term Prices Easing —
Best Window Since the Conflict
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