Day 47 — and the ceasefire is holding. Trump has confirmed talks are progressing towards formal discussions to end the 47-day conflict. This is the most constructive the diplomatic picture has looked since the first ceasefire collapsed three weeks ago.

Prices are continuing to ease. Yesterday's settlement showed gas down 1.7% to 79.61p (Sum-27) and power down 0.6% to £70.32. The weekly falls have moderated after last week's extraordinary moves but the direction remains firmly down. Gas is down 7.7% over 30 days and power down 3.3% — the clearest sustained downward move since the conflict began.

The fundamentals are lining up bearishly. Norwegian gas flows to the Netherlands doubled to 30 mcm, improving European supply. Mild weather is keeping demand suppressed and the UK system is oversupplied — injecting into storage and exporting to Europe. And there are early signs of more ships moving through the Strait of Hormuz, which if sustained would mark a major supply improvement.

Not everything is pulling down. The Wilhelmshaven LNG facility in Germany is on maintenance until 26 April, limiting regional import capacity. Cooler weather is forecast next week across Europe, which could slow the falls. And Ras Laffan remains 17% offline for 3–5 years — a structural floor under prices that won't disappear even if talks succeed.

Bigger picture: Gas is down 19% on May-26 and 17% on Q3-26 over the past month. These are serious moves. But prices are still well above pre-conflict levels — Sum-27 gas was around 63p before the crisis and we're at 79.61p now. There's still room to fall if talks produce a deal — but don't expect a full round-trip.