Day 80, Tuesday into Week 12, and the dramatic rally of Monday has decelerated sharply. Sum-27 gas at 88.28p (+0.5% day vs +3.7% Monday). Front-month Jun-26 gas actually closed lower on the day at 123.30p (−0.3%) — the first daily down-tick on the front-end since last Thursday. Jul-26 gas flat at 122.68p. Q3-26 gas flat at 122.97p. Win-26 gas modestly higher at 123.25p (+0.6%). Cal-27 gas at 96.51p (+0.5%). Power followed a similar pattern — Sum-27 power up just 0.6%, Cal-27 up 0.8%. Spot prices fell sharply: spot NBP gas at 124p (−3.5%), spot power at £92.74 (−22% on strong solar/wind output). The two-day rally from Monday looks like it's already finding a level — at a meaningfully higher level than where last week ended, but not extending further today.

An honest re-read of yesterday's report. Monday's update led heavily on weekend reports of strikes on UAE nuclear infrastructure and Trump's "clock is ticking" Iran remarks as the dominant catalysts. Today's daily market data gives a more nuanced read: Monday's opening move was driven by reports of Trump considering military options against Iran, but the day's later move was tempered by Trump's announcement that diplomatic talks would be allowed to continue. Today's session has extended that diplomatic pause framing further. The catalysts we led on yesterday were real but were more about market sentiment around Trump's posture than about discrete escalation events. The right read in retrospect: Monday was the market pricing the worst-case interpretation of weekend headlines, Tuesday is the market backing off that interpretation as Trump's actual posture became clearer. The level shift is real; the panic framing of "first hit on Gulf nuclear infrastructure" overstated how durable the catalyst was. Worth being candid about — the conflict has multiple competing headlines on most days and yesterday's report leaned more heavily into one set than the day's full action ultimately supported.

The week-on-week and month-on-month picture remains substantially red. Sum-27 gas +2.2% week, +13.2% month. Cal-27 gas +3.2% week, +15.9% month. Win-26 gas +6.9% week. Front-month Jun-26 gas +8.7% week, +29.7% month; Jul-26 gas +9.3% week, +31.0% month. Win-26 power +4.4% week, holding above £100. Q3-26 power +6.0% week, +20.9% month. These are still substantial gains — the rally over Friday-Monday was real and the levels it pushed prices to are largely intact today. The deceleration is welcome but it's not a reversal.

The dominant near-term physical event arrives tomorrow. A major planned maintenance outage across Kollsnes and Troll in Norway begins Wednesday 20 May, removing around 280 million cubic metres per day from European supply. That's one of the largest single supply reductions of the season — substantially bigger than the Gullfaks maintenance we flagged in Week 11 — and arrives just as cold-snap-driven storage anxiety is still in the price. The duration matters: shorter outages get absorbed; if this runs longer than expected, it would add a second leg to the rally. Worth watching closely through the rest of the week.

The Australian LNG strike timing has clarified — and improved. Yesterday's report had this starting 20 May. The accurate picture: workers at the Ichthys LNG facility are due to begin industrial action from 27 May unless negotiations scheduled for 25-26 May produce an agreement. That's a week later than we flagged and contingent on talks failing. A modest piece of good news — the Australian story is later and less certain than yesterday's report suggested.

The one meaningful offset is demand. Temperatures are forecast to run 6-7°C above seasonal norms across the UK and NW Europe through this week and into the weekend. That will cut household and small-business gas consumption substantially, help storage injection rates catch up, and ease the cold-snap-driven pressure that was supporting prices through last week. Spot power's −22% move today is almost entirely about strong solar/wind and warm weather, not a fundamental supply change. Forward contracts barely registered that move because they're still pricing the geopolitical and supply backdrop. But demand relief is genuine relief — it's the most material bullish-for-buyers factor in the picture this week.

For renewals: the levels are still firmly red but the immediate momentum has faded. 6-month renewals are still looking at front-month gas above 122p and Q3-26 above 122p — anyone holding out for compression now needs Trump's diplomatic pivot to translate into a concrete de-escalation event, Norwegian maintenance to come in shorter than feared, and Ichthys talks to succeed. Winter renewals face Win-26 power above £100 and Win-26 gas above 123p — the structural floor under winter has hardened materially this week. Long-dated has moved less in percentage terms but Cal-27 is now at the +15.9% monthly mark. The case to benchmark today is firm; the case to wait one more day to see how Norwegian maintenance lands is also reasonable. By end of this week we should have a clearer read on whether Phase 6 is consolidating or extending.