The Month That Reshaped UK Energy Markets
Operation Epic Fury. Hormuz closed. Qatar's LNG infrastructure damaged for years. Gas rose 79% in a single month — the biggest move since the early days of the Ukraine crisis. Here's what happened, week by week, and what it means for your business.
🔥 Gas (Sum-26)
⚡ Power (Sum-26)
📈 Gas Price Through March
Sum-26 forward price across 22 trading days. Pre-conflict close shown for context.
📈 Power Price Through March
Sum-26 forward price across 22 trading days.
📊 Week by Week
"Operation Epic Fury." US-Israel strikes across 24 of Iran's 31 provinces. Ayatollah Khamenei killed. Strait of Hormuz closed. TTF doubled overnight. QatarEnergy halted LNG exports, then declared force majeure. Mojtaba Khamenei confirmed as new Supreme Leader. Goldman warned €74+ TTF within a month, €100+ within two. The world changed in nine days.
Oil infrastructure targeted — US struck depots and refineries. Brent surged to $119.50 then crashed 11% on IEA's record 400-million-barrel release. Iran laid mines in Hormuz. Mojtaba declared Hormuz stays closed as a "tool of pressure." IEA called it "the largest supply disruption in history." Brief relief, then reality set in.
The week that made the damage permanent. US struck Kharg Island (90% of Iran's crude exports). Israel struck South Pars. Iran retaliated — Ras Laffan "extensively damaged." QatarEnergy confirmed 17% of LNG capacity offline for 3–5 years. Summer-winter spreads flipped to premium for 2026 and 2027. Cal-27 jumped 20%. The physical damage will outlast any ceasefire by years.
The week the market stopped reacting to every headline. Trump issued a 48-hour ultimatum — gas spiked to 158.80p then sold off. He delayed citing peace talks. Gas fell four straight days. Iran allowed 10 tankers through Hormuz as a diplomatic gesture. EU cut storage targets to 80%. Biggest weekly fall since the conflict. The market started treating geopolitical risk as permanent baseline rather than reacting fresh each day.
Two-day stub. Monday opened higher on weekend escalation (Houthi strikes, $116 oil) but couldn't hold — settled lower. Tuesday quiet as April contract expired. Focus shifted to Summer 2026 delivery starting 1 April and Europe's storage refill challenge. Storage at 28%, Germany 22%. Norwegian maintenance ahead. The month ended where Week 4 left it — below the peaks but still up 79%.
The Month's Story
March 2026 was the most significant month for UK energy markets since the early days of the Ukraine crisis. Gas prices rose 79% in 23 trading days. Power rose 48%. Oil went from $71 to above $115. Every forward contract on the curve — from next month to 2029 — moved materially higher.
It started on a Saturday. Operation Epic Fury — US-Israel strikes across Iran — closed the Strait of Hormuz and triggered the largest supply disruption the IEA has ever recorded. The first week saw TTF double, QatarEnergy halt LNG exports, and a new Supreme Leader installed in Tehran. The market had never moved this far, this fast.
Week two brought brief relief as oil crashed 11% on the IEA's record 400-million-barrel strategic release. But it wasn't enough. Week three delivered the structural blow: Iran's retaliatory strike on Qatar's Ras Laffan took 17% of the world's largest LNG exporter offline for years. That's physical damage that doesn't reverse with a ceasefire.
Week four showed the first sign the market was adapting. Trump's 48-hour ultimatum spiked gas to 159p — then the sell-off began. Four straight days of falls. Iran allowed 10 tankers through Hormuz. The market couldn't sustain rally after rally on the same structural risks. Gas fell 10% — the biggest weekly drop since the conflict.
The month closed at 137.13p — below the Week 3 peaks but still 79% above where it started. The seasonal discount has collapsed: summer gas is barely cheaper than winter. The forward curve out to 2029 has lifted. And Europe heads into injection season with storage at 28% — the lowest since 2022 — needing to reach 80% by November with supply still constrained. That refill challenge is now the next major price driver.
What March Taught Us
20% of global LNG flows through the Strait of Hormuz. Its closure reshaped global energy supply within hours.
Ras Laffan offline for 3–5 years. Kharg demolished. A ceasefire won't rebuild them.
By Week 4, headlines that would have spiked prices 20% in Week 1 barely moved them. The market absorbed the geopolitical premium as a new baseline.
Not just near-term. Cal-27 up 61%. Cal-28 up 33%. Cal-29 up 18%. Long-term supply concerns changed the structural outlook.
Forward Curve at Month End
❄️ The Seasonal Discount Has Collapsed
Normally summer gas is significantly cheaper than winter. Not any more. The conflict has flattened the forward curve — summer is barely 2% below winter, and power is actually more expensive in summer than winter. This matters because businesses that usually benefit from summer renewal timing aren't getting that advantage right now.
📈 March's Volatility
What This Means for Your Renewal
Based on where the market closed March and the structural outlook.
Prices are sharply higher than they were before the conflict and the structural damage (Ras Laffan, Hormuz, storage) isn't going away. If your contract is ending soon, getting quotes gives you a benchmark to work from. You can then decide whether to fix or watch — but at least you'll know your options.
The seasonal discount has collapsed — summer gas is barely cheaper than winter. The refill challenge (28% → 80%) will dominate the forward curve through summer. Worth getting an initial quote as a benchmark, then watching the daily reports for a clearer signal.
Winter curves have lifted sharply. How fast Europe refills storage will determine whether they hold or ease. If storage injections go well, there could be a better window later. If they don't, winter gets more expensive. Get a benchmark quote, then follow the market.
Longer-dated contracts have risen but carry more uncertainty. Infrastructure can be rebuilt. Geopolitical premiums can unwind. There's less urgency here — follow the market and look for a clearer entry point.
📅 March's Key Events
👀 What to Watch in April
The storage refill challenge dominates. Europe needs to go from 28% to 80% by November — with Ras Laffan 17% offline, Hormuz constrained, and Norwegian maintenance starting. How fast injections begin will set the direction for the whole summer curve.
Diplomatically, watch for US-Iran talks — the first real signals emerged in the final days of March. Trump's strike delay is ticking. If talks materialise, there's room for the geopolitical premium to unwind. If they don't, the market snaps back. Follow our daily market reports for the latest.
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Source: ICE Endex / SEFE daily reports · Smart Energy Company — Independent energy broker since 2014
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