UK Energy Market Update: 8th - 12th September 2025

By Thomas McGlynn • 15 September 2025

A Week of Two Halves!

Day-ahead gas hovered in a tight band this week while day-ahead power printed two unusually low prices (Thu-Fri). Those dips reflected short-term system conditions and do not line up with the forward curve, which is what suppliers use to build your renewal quotes.

📊 Weekly Market Snapshot (Day-Ahead)

Commodity Weekly avg Previous Week % Change Weekly High Weekly Low
Gas (UK NBP) 79.55 p/therm 78.69 Up 1.09% 81.15 (Tue) 77.35 (Mon)
Power (UK Base) £67.15/MWh 75.96 Down 11.6% £87.15 (Tue) £38.33 (Fri)

Why this matters: These are wholesale prices for tomorrow’s delivery. They set the tone for headlines, but your contract is priced off the forward curve, not day-ahead.


About those low power prints: Thursday and Friday’s day-ahead power prices were one-off dips. Forward contracts fell modestly over the week, but nothing like the 40–50% day-ahead moves—so renewal quotes won’t mirror those plunges.

📈 5 Week Price Trend

Week Ending Average Gas (p/th) Direction Avg Power (£/MWh) Direction
12/09/2025 79.55 🔺 67.15* 🔻
05/09/2025 78.69 🔻 75.96 🔻
29/08/2025 81.55 🔺 81.56 🔺
22/08/2025 78.10 🔻 80.44 🔺
15/08/2025 79.14 🔻 86.82 🔻

*Power average includes two very low Day-Ahead days this week; these are weather/system effects and don’t reflect typical fixed-contract pricing.



In short: gas has nudged slightly higher week-on-week, while power’s weekly average dropped mainly due to those two unusually low Day-Ahead prints. Forward prices — which set renewal quotes — eased a touch into Friday but remain far above this week’s Day-Ahead lows. 

📈 Forward Market Pricing — what suppliers actually watch


While day-ahead shows tomorrow’s blips, forwards show where the market expects costs over the months you’ll actually consume energy.


UK Gas (p/therm)

  • Oct-25: 79.22 (Fri) — down from 81.09 (Thu) and 80.80 (Wed)
  • Q4-25: 83.52 (Fri) — down from 85.35 (Thu)
  • Q1-26: 87.82 (Fri) — down from 89.50 (Thu)
  • Summer-26: 78.23 (Fri)
  • Cal-26: 82.15 (Fri) — eased across the week


UK Power (£/MWh)

  • Oct-25: £74.02 (Fri) — lower vs mid-week
  • Q4-25: £80.76 (Fri) — down from £82.39 (Thu)
  • Q1-26: £85.48 (Fri) — down from £87.17 (Thu)
  • Summer-26: £73.76 (Fri)
  • Cal-26: £78.80 (Fri) — drifted lower into week’s end


💡 What this means:

Forward strips softened modestly by Friday (generally a 1–3% slide from mid-week). That’s very different to the eye-catching day-ahead power drops, reinforcing that renewal quotes will move a little lower, not collapse.

🧠 Why prices moved & What's Next

Smiling man in gray shirt using a smartphone, set against a red and yellow background.

Gas

  • Europe’s storage sits high for the time of year (c. 80%), keeping a cap on risk even as we edge toward winter.
  • Norwegian maintenance is still restricting flows, nudging near-term risk premia.
  • A steady slate of LNG cargoes into North-West Europe is providing balance.



Power

  • Wind output swung around: mid-week softness, then stronger bursts—these swings helped create those short-lived low day-ahead power prices.
  • Gas-for-power demand tracked the wind profile: higher when wind eased, lower when it rebounded.
  • Continental interconnectors and nuclear availability remained important background stabilisers.


📉 6-Month Market Trend

Looking at the past six months of wholesale energy prices reveals important patterns:

A graph of last 6 month day annual wholesale market reports
  • Gas has been broadly stable in a tight 75–90 p/th band since late spring, easing off the early-June highs and sitting mid-range right now.
  • Power has been far more volatile, with several sharp dips driven by windy days and weekend demand. This week’s very low Day-Ahead readings look like another of those short, weather-led jolts rather than a shift in the longer trend (the forward curve hasn’t fallen by the same magnitude).
  • Net takeaway: day-to-day swings are common, especially for electricity, but suppliers base quotes on the forward strips, which have only edged lower into the weekend.

💡 Is now a good time to get prices?


Yes—worth getting fully-fixed quotes in hand.

Day-ahead averages fell week-on-week and the forward curve eased into Friday. If your renewal touches Oct–Mar, fixing now caps winter risk while Norwegian maintenance and early-autumn weather play out.

Smiling man in gray shirt using a smartphone, set against a red and yellow background.

👉 Catch the dip, not the blip

Forward prices finished the week a touch lower. If you’re due this winter, use this window to get a fully-fixed quote while the curve is softer.

Jar filled with golden coins, a coin falling into the jar, with colorful abstract shapes.

What to do by renewal window

Contract Renewal Period Advice
Renewing within 3 months You’re heading into winter quoting season. With forwards softer into week-end, lock a fixed now to avoid any cold-weather bounce.
Renewing in 3 - 6 Months Most of your window still sits in winter. Today’s curve is lower than mid-week, so pricing now is sensible. Waiting leaves you exposed to late-Q4/Jan risk.
Renewing +6 month out? Summer-26 remains the cheaper part of the curve. You can time a fix if you prefer, but trends nudged lower this week—get indicative quotes and sign up to weekly market updates so you’re ready to strike if the curve turns.

💷 What this means for your business


  • Day-ahead gas steady; power printed two one-day lows—not a true trend.


  • Forward gas & power eased 1–3% into Friday, improving fixed-price optics.



  • Winter-focused products (Q4-25/Q1-26) are still the priciest part of the curve, so early action helps control budget risk.

Why Business Work With Us

Rated 5 Stars by UK Businesses

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“Tom’s updates on energy prices have saved us money year after year. Highly recommend the Smart Energy Company.”

Smiling cartoon man with beard gestures to the left. He wears a blazer, button-down shirt, pants, and brown shoes.

Not Ready to Lock In?

Keep an eye on these:


  • Norwegian flow outlook: as maintenance winds down, prompt risk could fade a touch.


  • LNG timings: scheduled arrivals into N.W. Europe should keep the system comfortable—delays could firm the prompt.


  • Wind pattern: forecasts show choppy output; sharp dips can still throw up day-ahead power swings. 

🧠 Final thoughts


It was a week of headline-grabbing day-ahead power prints, but the signal that matters—the forward curve—eased modestly. That’s a constructive backdrop for anyone renewing through winter.



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