November 2025 UK Energy Market Trends: Gas, Power & Oil
Cal-26 Down 7% on Peace Talks — Cold Demand Still Structural
November proved October's lesson: forwards don't panic. Despite cold demand surging mid-month and winter repricing +2.86%, peace talks at month-end repriced geopolitical risk lower (−7%). The result: Cal-26 ended the month lower than peak but still elevated. Here's what moved your renewal prices—and what to do in December.
Power ↓ 3.07£
Power 83.32£
① The Month at a Glance
The Real Story
November proved October's lesson all over again: forwards are rational, spot is noise. Early month was calm. Mid-month, cold hit and the market repriced winter (prices up +2.86% power, +1.67% gas). This was legitimate repricing—heating demand surged to 349mcm, 87mcm above seasonal. But then peace talks shifted sentiment and geopolitical risk came off (prices down −7% week-on-week). The month ended lower than October despite legitimate cold demand. Your renewal quote is based on Cal-26 forwards (71.53p gas, 72.55£ power at month-end), not day-ahead noise or intra-month spikes.
💡 Critical Distinction
Your renewal quote is based on forward contracts (Cal-26), NOT day-ahead spot. When you see "cold demand spiked, prices up 2.86%," that's mid-month noise being repriced. When you see "peace talks drove prices down 7%," that's forward market repricing geopolitical risk. Both happened in November. Your actual price landed lower than October despite both events. This is why forwards matter—they're where your supplier locks your rate.
② Month Trend Analysis: Week by Week
| Week | Period | Cal-26 Gas | Cal-26 Power | Story |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3–7 Nov | 73.57p | 73.79£ | Steady calm. LNG strong, mild weather. |
| 2 | 10–14 Nov | 76.77p | 75.32£ | Cold snap, spot crashes, forwards hold (signal vs noise) |
| 3 | 17–21 Nov | 82.21p ⬆️ | 83.32£ ⬆️ | Cold structural (349mcm demand +87 seasonal). Peak pricing. |
| 4 | 24–28 Nov | 71.53p ⬇️ | 72.55£ ⬇️ | Peace talks ease geopolitical premium (−7% week-on-week) |
What Moved Prices
Week 1–2: Stable, then cold panic (spot crashed, forwards held). Week 3: Market repriced cold as structural winter feature—all near-term contracts rose. This was legitimate repricing: demand 349mcm (87mcm above seasonal), storage withdrawals accelerated, heating reality locked in. Week 4: Peace talks repriced geopolitical risk lower. Trump's 28-point Ukraine proposal shifted sentiment. Near-term contracts fell hardest (Dec-25 down 7.16%) because they carried the most war premium. Longer-term (Cal-28) fell less (4.43%) because they had less geopolitical premium baked in.
③ November vs October: The Shift
October was a surplus market—calm, stable, structurally lower. November added two new dimensions: structural cold demand(repriced prices up mid-month) and geopolitical risk(repriced prices down week-end). The result: Cal-26 ended lower than October despite the wild intra-month swings.
The Interpretation
October (2025): Surplus market, mild weather, abundant supply. Cal-26 fell −2% month-on-month. Stable.
November (2025): Cold demand confirmed structural mid-month (+2.86% power repricing), but geopolitical repricing dominated month-end (−7%). Cal-26 ended −9.0% gas, −4.1% power vs October. Why? Peace talks repriced away war premium that had been building into November pricing.
What this means: Volatility increased (intra-month range 71.53p–82.21p = 11.5p swing), but forward pricing remained disciplined. Geopolitical risk drove the biggest repricing (−7% week-on-week). Cold demand was real but temporary—traders repriced it as "winter reality" not "supply crisis." October's lesson held: forwards don't panic to temporary shocks; they price structural trends.
④ Renewal Guidance: Your Next Steps
Executive Summary
Your supplier quotes based on Cal-26 (71.53p gas, 72.55£ power at month-end) + margin (typically 2–4p/th) + costs (imbalance, transmission, hedging, risk premium). Use these forwards as your baseline. If quotes are 2–4p/th higher, that's normal markup. If they're 8–10p/th higher, ask why—either market moved since your quote request or supplier is loading risk premium. November showed why locking timing matters: intra-month prices ranged 71–82p (11.5p swing). Your supplier will hedge this volatility; you lock a stable forward rate.
ACTION: LOCK IN THIS WEEK. You're close to expiry. November showed intra-month volatility (11.5p range). If peace talks collapse, geopolitical premium snaps back 2–3% quickly. Lock now for certainty. Even if prices drift lower in December, you're only a few % worse—acceptable cost of security.
ACTION: LOCK BY EARLY DECEMBER. You have breathing room. December will see year-end buyer panic—predictable premium. Lock before then to avoid it. Spring pricing (68.60p) is 7p cheaper than winter peak (82.21p). This seasonal advantage is real. Don't wait for summer; spring is already excellent value.
ACTION: WAIT & MONITOR. You're in the sweet spot. Longer-term contracts have less geopolitical premium (Cal-28 fell only 4.43% vs Cal-26's 7.21%). December panic will spike near-term, but longer-term won't react as much. Watch for peace talks updates (if they stall, premium snaps back). You can wait for May–June 2026 summer pricing window for potentially even better deals.
📌 Understanding Your Quote vs Market Data
When you see "Cal-26 Gas 71.53p," that's the wholesale forward price. Your actual business quote will be higher. Your supplier adds: Margin(typically 2–4p/th for mid-market), Costs(imbalance, transmission, hedging, risk premium 1–2p/th if market is volatile), Credit premium(depends on your business size and creditworthiness). So if Cal-26 is 71.53p, expect a retail quote of 75–80p/th depending on your size. This is normal. Don't compare wholesale to retail—apples and oranges. If your supplier quotes 85–90p, ask for detailed breakdown.
⑤ December Outlook: What to Watch
November ended with peace talks repricing geopolitical risk lower. This premium is fragile. December will add one new dynamic: year-end buyer panic. Historically, Dec 15–23 sees rush to lock before holidays. This is predictable panic premium. Here's what will move prices:
🟢 Downside Pressure
Peace talks progress: If negotiations advance, geopolitical premium stays off. Mild weather: If forecasts hold 2–3°C above seasonal, heating suppressed.
🔴 Upside Risk
Peace talks stall: Geopolitical premium snaps back 2–3%. Early cold: Unexpected cold snap before forecasted warming. Year-end panic: Rush to lock Dec 15–23 spikes prices.
November Proved a Critical Lesson
Forwards were rational even when spot was volatile. Cold demand mid-month was real (349mcm, 87mcm above seasonal)—market repriced it correctly (up +2.86% power). Peace talks at month-end repriced geopolitical risk lower—market repriced it correctly (down −7%). The intra-month range (71–82p = 11.5p swing) was dramatic. But Cal-26 ended the month lower than October. This is discipline. Your supplier hedges this volatility daily. You lock a stable forward rate based on where Cal-26 settles. Lock in December before year-end panic hits. Lock early before the buyer rush, not during it.
Cal-26 Down 9% Month-on-Month — But December Panic Will Spike Prices
November's volatility proved forwards work. Lock your renewal now before December buyer panic hits. Use Cal-26 (71.53p gas, 72.55£ power) as your market baseline.
Renewing soon? Lock this week. Have time? Lock by early December. Either way, act before the year-end rush.
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