Thomas McGlynn • 15 December 2025

UK Energy Market Update: 8th - 12th December 2025

📅 Week 50 | 8–12 December 2025 ⛽ Gas -1.7% ⚡ Power -0.8% 🟢 GET QUOTES

Weekly Wrap: Gas Down 1.7%, Power Down 0.8% as Warm Weather Wins

A volatile week saw Cal26 gas swing between 65.42p and 67.41p before closing at 65.78p — down 1.7%. Cal26 power ended at £69.40 — down 0.8%. Warm weather and strong LNG supply continue to outweigh low wind and supply tightness concerns. Friday's uptick suggests we may be near a short-term bottom.

⛽ GAS
Cal26
65.78p
↓ -1.7%
Cal27
64.21p
↓ -2.2%
Cal28
61.97p
↓ -2.1%
Sum26
63.26p
↓ -2.0%
⚡ POWER
Cal26
£69.40
↓ -0.8%
Cal27
£68.17
↓ -1.0%
Cal28
£67.52
↓ -0.3%
Sum26
£65.76
↓ -0.8%

📊 Day-by-Day Breakdown

MON
8
↗️
⛽ 67.36p ↑+0.6%
⚡ £70.11 ↑+0.2%

Oversold bounce. Markets opened higher after the previous week's 5% decline. Technical correction — but fundamentals still soft with strong winds and warm temperatures.

TUE
9
↘️
⛽ 66.23p ↓-1.7%
⚡ £69.49 ↓-0.9%

Bearish fundamentals won. Morning surge faded as soft demand outlook prevailed. Continental LNG improving — Fos and Montoir nominations up 50%. Oil fell on Ukraine peace talk news.

WED
10
↗️
⛽ 67.41p ↑+1.8%
⚡ £69.93 ↑+0.6%

Wind forecasts revised down. Lower wind output expected pushed gas-for-power demand expectations higher. UK system tightened slightly. Week's high point.

THU
11
⬇️
⛽ 65.42p ↓-3.0%
⚡ £68.93 ↓-1.4%

Sharp falls — broke 66p. Wednesday's gains wiped out and then some. Cal26 gas fell below 66p for the first time. Power followed. Warm weather and strong LNG supply dominated. Week's low point.

FRI
12
↗️
⛽ 65.78p ↑+0.5%
⚡ £69.40 ↑+0.7%

Small bounce — possible bottom? Both gas and power consolidated after Thursday's sharp falls. Day-ahead power spiked 17% on low wind but forwards barely moved. Weekly trend still down but momentum may be shifting.

Week's Price Movement

📉 The Bigger Picture — 4-Week Trend

Cal26 gas down 15%, power down 8% in four weeks. This week's smaller drops may signal we're near a short-term bottom.

⛽ GAS Cal26 Gas Forward

21 Nov
77.09p
Starting point
28 Nov
71.53p
↓ -7.2%
5 Dec
66.94p
↓ -6.4%
12 Dec
65.78p
↓ -1.7%

⚡ POWER Cal26 Power Forward

21 Nov
£75.79
Starting point
28 Nov
£72.55
↓ -4.3%
5 Dec
£69.94
↓ -3.6%
12 Dec
£69.40
↓ -0.8%
⛽ Gas 4-Week
-14.7%
77.09p → 65.78p
⚡ Power 4-Week
-8.4%
£75.79 → £69.40
This Week's Pace
Slowing
Smallest drops in 4 weeks
Signal
🟢
Possible bottom forming

What the trend tells us: Both gas and power have fallen significantly — gas more than power because power includes non-gas generation costs. After two weeks of 6-7% gas falls and 3-4% power falls, this week saw just -1.7% gas and -0.8% power. Friday's uptick suggests the market may be finding support. The pace of decline is clearly slowing.

The Week's Story

This week told a clear story: warm weather and strong LNG supply are winning, despite occasional headwinds from lower wind generation and supply tightness concerns.

The week opened with a technical bounce after the previous week's steep 5% decline left markets oversold. But by Tuesday, bearish fundamentals reasserted themselves. The pattern repeated mid-week — Wednesday's rise on lower wind forecasts was completely erased by Thursday's sharp 3% drop.

Thursday was the week's decisive moment. Cal26 broke below 66p for the first time, hitting 65.42p. This wasn't panic selling — it was a rational response to continued unseasonably warm temperatures and improving LNG flows. Montoir, Zeebrugge, and South Hook all received cargoes. European storage remains comfortable at 76%.

What drove the week?

🌡️ Warm Weather
Unseasonably mild throughout — main driver keeping demand soft
🚢 Strong LNG
Multiple cargoes arriving — Fos, Montoir nominations up 50%
💨 Low Wind (Late Week)
Pushed spot power up 17% Friday — but forwards shrugged it off
🕊️ Ukraine Peace Talks
Oil fell $1/bbl on Tuesday's news — potential longer-term support

Friday's small bounce is worth watching. After a week of falling prices, the uptick could signal consolidation or a short-term bottom. The weekly trend remains down, but momentum may be shifting. For businesses with contract renewals approaching, this could be a good window.

Full Price Table — End of Week

📉 Week-on-Week Change (Fri 5 Dec → Fri 12 Dec)

Cal26
-1.7%
Cal27
-2.2%
Cal28
-2.1%
Sum26
-2.0%
2026 (Cal26) ↓ -1.7%
Gas
65.78p
Power
£69.40
2027 (Cal27) ↓ -2.2%
Gas
64.21p
Power
£68.17
2028 (Cal28) Lowest
Gas
61.97p
Power
£67.52
Seasonal
Summer 26
63.26p
↓ -2.0%
Winter 26
69.43p
↓ -2.2%
Near-Term
Q1 2026 Gas
68.67p
Q1 2026 Power
£75.40

❄️ Winter vs Summer — The Seasonal Gap

⛽ GAS
Q1-26 (Winter)
68.67p
Summer 2026
63.26p
You Save
7.9%
⚡ POWER
Q1-26 (Winter)
£75.40
Summer 2026
£65.76
You Save
12.8%

What this means: Summer contracts are significantly cheaper — especially power (12.8% less). If you can wait until spring/summer to renew, you'll get better rates. But if you need winter energy now, don't wait — Q1-26 gas at 68.67p and power at £75.40 are already down significantly from two weeks ago.

What To Watch Next Week

💨

Wind Forecasts — Choppy Week Ahead

Below-normal wind expected across Europe. Day-ahead power likely to stay elevated, but forwards should only react if the pattern persists beyond a few days.

🌡️

Temperature — Still Mild

Forecasts show continued above-normal temperatures. Any cold snap would push demand up quickly, but none currently expected. This remains the key bearish driver.

🚢

LNG Supply — Strong

More cargoes scheduled for Zeebrugge, Gate, Isle of Grain. Continental nominations have recovered. European storage at 76% — comfortable heading into winter.

🕊️

Geopolitics — Watch Ukraine

Peace talks continue. Any ceasefire agreement could push prices materially lower. US-Venezuela tensions briefly spiked oil but retreated quickly.

Should I Buy Now?

🟢 GET QUOTES

Weekly trend falling, Friday turned up. This combination suggests a possible short-term bottom. Gas at 65.78p is down 15% in four weeks. Power at £69.40 is down 8%. For businesses with renewals in the next 3-6 months, this looks like a good window for both gas and electricity contracts.

🟢 Contract ends: Now – March 2026

GET QUOTES NOW

You need winter energy soon. Gas: Q1-26 at 68.67p, Cal26 at 65.78p. Power: Q1-26 at £75.40, Cal26 at £69.40. Both are down significantly week-on-week. Friday's uptick after a week of falls could signal a bottom. Don't wait for further drops that may not come.

🟢 Contract ends: April – June 2026

GET QUOTES NOW

Gas: Summer 2026 at 63.26p is down 2% this week — the cheapest point on the gas curve. Power: Summer 2026 at £65.76 is nearly 13% below winter rates. Excellent value for spring renewals on both commodities. This is a strong buying opportunity.

🟡 Contract ends: July 2026 or later

MONITOR

You have time, but these are already attractive levels. Gas: Cal28 at 61.97p is the lowest on the curve. Power: Cal28 at £67.52 offers good value. If you want certainty, locking in now isn't a bad call for either commodity. If you're happy to wait, monitor through Christmas — but don't expect dramatically lower prices.

Ready to lock in these rates?

Gas: Cal26 at 65.78p, Summer 2026 at 63.26p
Power: Cal26 at £69.40, Summer 2026 at £65.76
The best prices we've seen in weeks for both commodities. Get same-day quotes across 28+ UK suppliers. No pressure, no obligation.

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