UK Energy Market Update: 29th September - 3rd October 2025

By Thomas McGlynn • 6 October 2025

Markets eased notably this week

Day-ahead gas averaged 75.99p/th (▼4.47% vs last week’s 79.55), while power averaged £78.05/MWh (▼7.08% vs 84.00). Friday closed on sharp day-ahead lows (gas 67.83p/th, power £52.00/MWh) even as forwards—the prices suppliers use for quotes—nudged 3–5% lower week-on-week rather than crashing. That creates a constructive window for near-term renewals.

📊 Weekly Market Snapshot (Day-Ahead)

Averages (Mon–Fri): Gas 75.99p/th | Power £78.05/MWh
Weekly high/low: Gas 80.60 / 67.83 | Power £96.15 / £52.00

Date Gas (p/th) Power (£/MWh)
Fri 03/10 67.83 52.00
Thu 02/10 75.60 74.47
Wed 01/10 76.00 81.67
Tue 30/09 79.90 85.94
Mon 29/09 80.60 96.15
Day-ahead moves are short-term signals. Supplier quotes are based on forwards (below).

📈 5 Week Price Trend

Week Ending Average Gas (p/th) Direction Avg Power (£/MWh) Direction
03/10/2025 75.99 🔺 78.05 🔻
26/09/2025 79.55 🔺 84.00 🔺
19/09/2025 79.06 🔻 54.41* 🔻
12/09/2025 79.55 🔺 67.15* 🔻
05/09/2025 78.69 🔻 75.96 🔻

📌 *Power contained anomalous prints these weeks and didn’t reflect real contract levels.

📈 Forward Market Pricing — what suppliers actually watch

Week-on-week change: compared to Fri 26/09/2025.

Gas (p/th)

Product Price WoW%
Nov-25 80.26 ▼5.35%
Dec-25 83.23 ▼4.98%
Q1-26 84.00 ▼4.39%
Summer-26 76.53 ▼3.38%
Cal-26 80.01 ▼3.66%

Power (£/MWh)

Product Price WoW%
Nov-25 80.53 ▼3.88%
Dec-25 79.98 ▼4.99%
Q1-26 83.06 ▼3.09%
Cal-26 76.64 ▼3.41%

Read: Forwards fell a steady 3–5% across winter strips, even though day-ahead crashed Friday. That’s the piece that drives renewal quotes.

🧠 Why prices moved & What's Next

Smiling man in gray shirt using a smartphone, set against a red and yellow background.
  • Gas: Comfortable supply, healthy LNG, and shoulder-season demand eased the curve.


  • Power: Friday’s day-ahead slump was driven by short-term fundamentals (renewables & system conditions) rather than a structural forward shift.



  • Outlook: Into October, watch Norwegian flows, LNG arrivals, and early-autumn weather. Any colder turn can re-price winter strips quickly.

📉 6-Month Market Trend

Looking at the past six months of wholesale energy prices reveals important patterns:

A graph of last 6 month day annual wholesale market reports

The attached chart shows gas trending in a tight ~76–86p/th band since summer; power has been more volatile with occasional day-ahead dips. The forward curve is calmer than these daily swings, which is what matters for contracts.

💡 Is now a good time to get prices?


Yes.


Winter-25 and Q1-26 fell ~3–5% this week, trimming near-term premiums. If your renewal lands before spring, this is a practical window to benchmark and secure quotes before colder-weather risk returns.

Smiling man in gray shirt using a smartphone, set against a red and yellow background.

👉 Don’t let October volatility erase this dip

Winter markets can turn quickly. Lock a competitive fixed rate while forwards are softer.

Jar filled with golden coins, a coin falling into the jar, with colorful abstract shapes.

What to do by renewal window

  • Renewing in the next 0–3 months (Oct–Dec 2025):

    Act now. 


    Winter strips eased; get fully-fixed options while the curve is soft.

  • Renewing in 3–6 months (Jan–Mar 2026):

    Shortlist suppliers and set a trigger. 


    If Q1-26 dips again, be ready to sign.

  • Renewing in 6–12 months (Apr–Sep 2026):

    Monitor Summer-26/Cal-26. 


    Prices are cheaper than winter; keep quotes refreshed.

💷 What this means for your business


  • Day-ahead noise ≠ contract levels. Suppliers price from forwards, which fell this week.


  • Near-term renewals: improved window to reduce winter exposure.



  • Longer-dated starts: still value in Summer-26 / Cal-26 vs winter.

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🧠 Final thoughts


A classic divergence week: day-ahead crashed, but the forward curve—the bit that sets your quote—eased smoothly by ~3–5%. If you’re inside the next six months, it’s a good moment to benchmark and, where the numbers work, fix.



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