UK Energy Market Weekly Update | 29 Sept

🔥

Weekly Avg Gas

75.99p

▼ 4.47%

was 79.55p last week

⚡

Weekly Avg Power

£78.05

▼ 7.08%

was £84.00 last week

THIS WEEK'S SIGNAL

🔻 EASING MARKET

Gas (▼4.47%) and power (▼7.08%) both fell this week. Forward prices dropped 3–5% across key contracts — a constructive window for near-term renewals.

💡

What This Means
Forwards fell steadily (not crashed). If you're renewing before spring, this is a practical window to lock rates.

Markets eased notably this week. Day-ahead gas averaged 75.99p/th (▼4.47% vs last week's 79.55), while power averaged £78.05/MWh (▼7.08% vs 84.00). Friday closed on sharp day-ahead lows (gas 67.83p/th, power £52.00/MWh) even as forwards — the prices suppliers use for quotes — nudged 3–5% lower week-on-week rather than crashing.

📊 Weekly Market Snapshot (Day-Ahead)

Averages: Gas 75.99p/th Averages: Power £78.05/MWh Gas High/Low: 80.60 / 67.83 Power High/Low: £96.15 / £52.00

Date	Gas (p/th)	Δ vs prior day	Power (£/MWh)	Δ vs prior day
Mon 29/09	80.60	—	96.15	—
Tue 30/09	79.90	▼ 0.70	85.94	▼ 10.21
Wed 01/10	76.00	▼ 3.90	81.67	▼ 4.27
Thu 02/10	75.60	▼ 0.40	74.47	▼ 7.20
Fri 03/10	67.83	▼ 7.77	52.00	▼ 22.47

Mon 29/09 —

Gas 80.60 p/th

Power £96.15 /MWh

Tue 30/09 ▼

Gas 79.90 p/th

Power £85.94 /MWh

Wed 01/10 ▼

Gas 76.00 p/th

Power £81.67 /MWh

Thu 02/10 ▼

Gas 75.60 p/th

Power £74.47 /MWh

Fri 03/10 ▼

Gas 67.83 p/th

Power £52.00 /MWh

💡 Remember: Day-ahead moves are short-term signals. Supplier quotes are based on forwards (below).

5 Week Price Trend Section

📈 5 Week Price Trend

Week Ending	Average Gas (p/th)	Direction	Avg Power (£/MWh)	Direction
03/10/2025	75.99	▼	78.05	▼
26/09/2025	79.55	▲	84.00	▲
19/09/2025	79.06	▼	54.41*	▼
12/09/2025	79.55	▲	67.15*	▼
05/09/2025	78.69	▼	75.96	▼

📌 *Power contained anomalous prints these weeks and didn't reflect real contract levels.

⚡ What’s Driving Prices?

Comfortable Gas Supply

Healthy LNG arrivals, good storage levels, and shoulder-season demand helped ease the curve this week.

Lower pressure on near-term

Short-Term Power Fundamentals

Friday’s low day-ahead power was mainly about renewables and system conditions, not a structural change in forwards.

Spot ≠ Quotes

Key Risks to Watch

Norwegian flows, LNG send-out, and early-autumn weather. A cold turn or outages can quickly lift winter strips.

Winter sensitivity

📈 Forward Market Pricing — what suppliers actually watch

Week-on-week change compared to Friday 26/09/2025.

🔥 Gas (p/th)

Product	Price	WoW%
Nov-25	80.26	▼5.35%
Dec-25	83.23	▼4.98%
Q1-26	84.00	▼4.39%
Summer-26	76.53	▼3.38%
Cal-26	80.01	▼3.66%

⚡ Power (£/MWh)

Product	Price	WoW%
Nov-25	80.53	▼3.88%
Dec-25	79.98	▼4.99%
Q1-26	83.06	▼3.09%
Cal-26	76.64	▼3.41%

📖 Understanding This Week’s Price Movement

Why did forwards fall while day-ahead crashed?

Friday’s day-ahead lows (gas 67.83p/th, power £52.00/MWh) reflected short-term system conditions. Forward contracts — which set quote levels — eased ~3–5% week-on-week rather than collapsing.

What this means:

Near-term forwards caught up to softer fundamentals; longer strips (e.g. Cal-26 gas 80.01p/th) remain above spot.
If fundamentals stay soft, forwards can drift lower — but cold weather or supply issues can reverse this quickly.
Fixing on forwards removes exposure to day-ahead volatility seen this week.
Actionable window: locking now can bank this week’s 3–5% drop before sentiment turns.

Bottom line: steady forward declines signal a practical opportunity to fix — without relying on fragile day-ahead dips.

🔍 What the Chart Shows

The last six months highlight how day-ahead and forward wholesale prices have fluctuated across key seasonal periods. Current levels sit near the lower end of the range seen since spring.

Gas: Prices softened through early autumn, now roughly 10–15% below mid-summer highs.
Power: Mirrored gas but with sharper intraday swings, driven by wind generation and short-term demand shifts.
Overall: Market sentiment remains cautious — stable storage and mild weather have limited upside, but any cold snap could reverse the trend quickly.

In summary: This week’s price action sits within a wider six-month downtrend, suggesting current rates still offer relative value for businesses fixing ahead of winter.

⚡ Is Now a Good Time to Get Prices?

Important: We only arrange fully fixed contracts — no partial fixes or variable rates.

Act this week. Winter-25 and Q1-26 fell 3–5% this week. With spot now at 75.99p/th (gas) and £78.05/MWh (power), forwards look sensible protection.

You’re in the critical window — fixing now removes the risk of further rises as colder weather approaches.

Get Your Quote Now

Benchmark this week. Q1-26 is 84.00p/th (gas) and £83.06/MWh (power). With forwards down 3–4%, it’s a practical time to review quotes.

You’re in the 3-month window — fixing now removes winter risk before suppliers reprice for colder demand.

Get Your Quote Now

Monitor monthly. Summer-26 is 76.53p/th (gas) and around £72/MWh (power) — both fell ~3% this week.

No rush yet, but track the trend — discounts may not last if winter tightens or geopolitical risk increases.

Get Your Quote Now

Track quarterly. Cal-26 and Cal-27 remain relatively stable. No immediate urgency, but monitor for early upward movement.

Sign up for our weekly updates so you can move at the right time — we’ll flag any meaningful shifts in longer-term pricing.

Get Your Quote Now

🔭 What to Watch Next

Norway flows & maintenance: extensions or extra outages (e.g. Langeled) can lift prices quickly.
Wind forecasts (7–10 days): calm spells usually mean more gas-fired power and higher costs.
LNG arrivals & send-out: strong berthings and terminal output help keep supply steady.
Storage behaviour: early withdrawals or slower injections hint at tighter winter risk.
Interconnectors: UK–EU gas/power flows — constraints or strong exports can firm prices.
Carbon & oil: higher EUA carbon or Brent prices often add cost pressure to generation.
Geopolitics: tensions in Ukraine or the Middle East can quickly impact sentiment.

❓ FAQs on This Week’s Market

🔹 Why did prices drop this week? ▶

Comfortable gas supply, mild weather, and healthy LNG imports eased short-term price pressure across the UK and Europe. Power largely followed gas lower.

🔹 Are day-ahead drops reflected in renewal quotes? ▶

Not fully. Supplier quotes are based on forwards, which fell ~3–5% — less dramatic than spot, but still constructive for near-term renewals.

🔹 Should I fix now or wait? ▶

If your contract ends before spring, it’s a practical time to fix while forwards remain soft. For longer lead times, monitor monthly but remember winter risk rises quickly.

🔹 What could push prices higher again? ▶

Extended cold spells, LNG delivery issues, or Norwegian pipeline disruptions can add risk premium fast — especially through late Q4 and early Q1.

💬 Final Thoughts

It’s been a constructive week overall — wholesale gas and power both moved lower, easing 3–5% across key forward contracts. Despite some sharp daily volatility, underlying market sentiment remains steady.

Forwards haven’t yet fully caught up with the drop in day-ahead pricing, which means there’s still a short-term opportunity for businesses to fix before the curve reacts.

If your contract ends within the next 3–6 months, this is a valuable moment to benchmark — or lock — rates while pricing remains at the lower end of recent trading ranges.

Key takeaway: When prices ease gradually rather than crash, it’s often a signal of underlying stability — and a practical time to take action before sentiment shifts.

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UK Energy Market Update: 29th September - 3rd October 2025

📊 Weekly Market Snapshot (Day-Ahead)

📈 5 Week Price Trend

⚡ What’s Driving Prices?

📈 Forward Market Pricing — what suppliers actually watch

🔥 Gas (p/th)

⚡ Power (£/MWh)

📊 Forward Trend Snapshot

📖 Understanding This Week’s Price Movement

Why did forwards fall while day-ahead crashed?

What this means:

📉 6-Month Market Trend

🔍 What the Chart Shows

⚡ Is Now a Good Time to Get Prices?

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🔭 What to Watch Next

❓ FAQs on This Week’s Market

💬 Final Thoughts

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