Thomas McGlynn • 22 December 2025

UK Energy Market Update: 15th - 19th Dec 2025

UK Energy Market Weekly: 15–19 December 2025
📅 Week 51 | 15–19 December 2025 ⛽ Gas -1.4% ⚡ Power +2.1% 🟡 MONITOR

Sideways Consolidation: Wind Falling, Cold Emerging, Peace Easing War Premium

Gas markets rangebound all week around 70p, constrained by mixed fundamentals. Strong LNG supply and Norwegian flows offset rising demand. But wind speeds are falling from 17 Dec onwards — well below seasonal normal — and cold is emerging (2–3°C below normal late Dec). This repricing pattern shifts upward late week as peace talks progress, easing Russia-Ukraine war premium. Jan-26 closed 73.10p gas, £83.45 power. Not exciting, but the fundamentals are shifting underfoot.

⛽ GAS
Jan-26 Close
73.10p
↓ -1.4%
Week Range
69.10–71.00p
1.9p swing
Weekly Avg
70.36p
Tight range
⚡ POWER
Jan-26 Close
£83.45
↑ +2.1%
Week Range
£60.00–£88.33
Wide swing
Weekly Avg
£73.57
Wind driven

📊 Day-by-Day Breakdown

MON
15
→
⛽ 70.70p → Flat
⚡ £76.74 → Flat

Week opens sideways. Gas trading around 70p. Market constrained by mixed fundamentals: strong LNG supply + robust Norwegian flows offsetting higher winter demand. UK system long (8mcm). Mild temperatures still. Demand trailing seasonal normal by 30mcm.

TUE
16
⬆️
⛽ 71.00p ↑ +0.4%
⚡ £88.33 ↑ +14.9% ⚠️

Power spikes on wind forecast. Gas holds around 70p but power jumps sharply (+14.9%). Reason: wind speeds expected to fall hard from 17 Dec onwards, dropping well below seasonal normal. This signals higher gas-for-power demand. Bullish weather runs emerging (cold patterns 2–3°C below normal from Christmas).

WED
17
↘️
⛽ 69.10p ↓ -2.7%
⚡ £76.72 ↓ -13.1%

Sharp afternoon selloff. Gas down -2.7% (to week low 69.10p), power crashes -13.1%. Market referenced Henry Hub divergence narrowing — less profitable LNG arbitrage to Europe. News of potential Russia-Ukraine peace deal (Zelensky signals security framework) started easing geopolitical premium. Supply remains abundant, LNG solid.

THU
18
⬆️
⛽ 70.10p ↑ +1.4%
⚡ £66.08 ↓ -14.0%

Sideways consolidation resumes. Gas bounces back to 70.10p. Power continues soft (trading £66 area). Wind speeds high today, then expected dip into weekend. Warm temps today offset by cold forecast late Dec. Peace talks progress (Zelensky framework + territory discussions). Technical support holding at 70p NBP — market struggling to break lower despite abundant supply.

FRI
19
⬆️
⛽ 73.10p ↑ +4.3% 📈
⚡ £83.45 ↑ +26.2% 📈

Week close repricing on cold + wind + geopolitics. Gas rallies +4.3% (to 73.10p), power surges +26.2% (to £83.45). Markets pricing in cold patterns (2–3°C below seasonal) for late December + wind falling below normal + potential peace deal (Henry Hub easing as less LNG needed if risks lower). Langeled flows strong, UKCS production healthy, but supply fundamentals now facing genuine demand pressure from weather.

The Week's Story

This was a week of sideways consolidation being disrupted by three emerging factors: wind falling, cold arriving, and peace talks easing geopolitical premium.

Early week (Mon–Tue) opened rangebound. Markets were constrained by mixed fundamentals: strong LNG sendout, robust Norwegian flows (343.5–351.6mcm/day), and UK system long by 8mcm offset by seasonal winter demand. Gas held around 70p all week, trading in just a 1.9p range. Power was the wild card — Tuesday spiked +14.9% to £88.33 as forecasts showed wind speeds falling hard from 17 Dec onwards. This is the key shift: below-seasonal wind means higher reliance on gas-for-power generation.

Wednesday afternoon saw a sharp selloff. Gas dropped -2.7% to 69.10p (week low), power crashed -13.1%. Two drivers: (1) Henry Hub divergence narrowing, reducing profitable LNG arbitrage spreads to Europe, and (2) geopolitical repricing. Russia-Ukraine peace talks showed progress — Zelensky signalled security framework emerging, even though territory concessions remain contentious. This eased war premium. By Wednesday close, markets were testing technical support at 70p NBP.

Thursday consolidated the move. Gas rebounded to 70.10p, power stayed soft (£66 area). Wind was high Thursday but forecast to dip hard into weekend and stay below normal through year-end. Cold patterns emerged (2–3°C below seasonal normal from Christmas onwards). This combination — weak wind + structural cold + recovery in peace deal sentiment — repriced sharply Friday. Gas rallied +4.3% to 73.10p (week close), power surged +26.2% to £83.45. The market was saying: supply is abundant, but demand is about to get real.

What the week taught us:

💨 Wind is the Key Driver
Wind falling below seasonal normal for late Dec/early Jan. This shifts demand to gas-for-power. Power prices are wind-sensitive; gas is more structural.
🧊 Cold is Legitimate
2–3°C below seasonal normal confirmed for late December through early January. Not extreme, but structural. Demand will rise, but supply remains abundant (LNG, Norway, UKCS).
🕊️ Peace Premium Easing
Russia-Ukraine peace talks progress (Zelensky security framework, territorial discussions) easing geopolitical repricing. If peace confirmed, expect further relief on longer-dated contracts.
📊 Forwards > Spot (Always)
Your Jan-26 quote is 73.10p (Friday close), not wild intra-week swings. Near-term repriced Friday on wind + cold expectations. Q2-26 (64.43p) shows summer discount is stable.

Full Price Table — End of Week (19 Dec)

📊 Week Summary (15 Dec open → 19 Dec close)

Jan-26 Gas
73.24 → 73.10p
↓ -0.2%
Jan-26 Power
82.00 → £83.45
↑ +1.8%
Gas Week Range
69.10–71.00p
Tight 1.9p
Power Range
£60.00–£88.33
28.33p wide
Jan 2026 Winter
Gas
73.10p
Power
£83.45
Q1 2026 Winter Avg
Gas
70.80p
Power
£78.56
Q2 2026 Spring
Gas
64.43p
Power
£68.51

❄️ Winter vs Spring — The Seasonal Signal

⛽ Jan-26 Gas
73.10p
⛽ Q2-26 Gas
64.43p
Savings
11.9%

What this means: Spring is 11.9% cheaper than winter for gas. Cold + wind are repricing winter higher, but spring discount remains stable. If your contract ends Jan–Mar 2026, lock now and pay the winter premium for genuine cold/wind. If you can wait until April+, you'll save significantly on seasonal swing.

Should I Buy Now?

🟡 MONITOR

Cold is confirmed (2–3°C below normal, late Dec–early Jan). Wind falling below seasonal. Jan-26 repriced to 73.10p gas, £83.45 power Friday on these factors. This is fair repricing, not panic. But geopolitical risk (peace talks) could ease further. Next week (23 Dec–2 Jan) will be crucial — Christmas break + peak cold + Troll maintenance risk. MONITOR, don't rush. For Jan–Feb renewals, these prices are reasonable. For spring (Apr+), wait.

🟡 Contract ends: Now – Feb 2026

MONITOR

You're in the window. Jan-26 at 73.10p gas, Q1-26 at 70.80p. Power at £83.45 (Jan) / £78.56 (Q1). Cold + wind repricing is legitimate, but not extreme. Don't panic-buy. Watch next week (Christmas break + cold peak 2–9 Jan) for more clarity. If Troll maintenance extends or temperatures plunge further, prices could spike. Current levels are fair; better entry points may come post-peak-cold.

🟢 Contract ends: Mar – Jun 2026

LOCK SPRING

Spring is significantly cheaper. Q2-26 at 64.43p gas (11.9% below winter), £68.51 power. This seasonal discount is stable and attractive. Lock now for April–June renewals — you're locking genuine seasonal advantage while winter premium is temporary (cold/wind specific). Strong buying opportunity.

🟡 Contract ends: Jul 2026+

MONITOR

You have time. Watch 23 Dec–2 Jan unfold (cold peak, wind floors, Troll maintenance status). Watch peace talks (if deal confirmed, expect further repricing). Supply is abundant globally; this is weather-driven repricing, not structural shortage. Lock in 2–3 weeks when clearer picture emerges post-holiday period.

Cold + Wind = Repricing. But Supply is Abundant.

Gas: Jan-26 at 73.10p (Friday close), Q2-26 at 64.43p (spring discount)
Power: Jan-26 at £83.45, Q1-26 at £78.56, Q2-26 at £68.51
Cold confirmed through early January. Wind falling. But LNG, Norway, UKCS all flowing. Geopolitical premium easing on peace talk progress. Don't panic — monitor next week for peak cold clarity.

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What Happens Next Week?

Christmas break + cold peak (2–9 Jan) + wind well below normal + potential Troll maintenance updates. Markets will be thin (holiday liquidity), spot prices volatile, forwards disciplined. Peak cold repricing happens 23 Dec–2 Jan. Stay informed.

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