Thomas McGlynn • 5 January 2026

UK Energy Market Update: 22nd Dec 2025 - 2nd Jan 2026

UK Energy Market Weekly: 23 Dec – 2 Jan 2026
📅 Week 52 | 23 Dec – 2 Jan 2026 ⛽ Gas +2.1% ⚡ Power +0.6% 🟢 LOCK NOW

Holiday Rollercoaster: Troll Outage Spike, Then Milder Repricing

A volatile Christmas week saw cold hit hard, then a Norwegian field (Troll) go offline suddenly. Panic repricing drove gas to 76.75p peak. By New Year, supply stable and forecasts milder — prices eased to 74.75p gas, 81.50£ power. Cold is confirmed for 2+ weeks, but holiday panic was temporary. Supply remains abundant. Near-term repriced harder than longer-term — textbook tactical hedging.

⛽ GAS
Jan-26
74.75p
↑ +2.1%
Week Peak
76.75p
30 Dec
Swing
6.6p
Peak to close
⚡ POWER
Jan-26
£81.50
↑ +0.6%
Week Peak
£84.01
30 Dec
Swing
£2.51
Peak to close

📊 Day-by-Day Breakdown

MON
23
↘️
⛽ 70.15p ↓-3.1%
⚡ £78.92 ↓-0.2%

Soft open. After weekend break, prices fell. Supply robust (LNG strong, 343.5mcm/day Norwegian exit), wind healthy, mild weather. Traders cautious before holidays.

TUE
24
↗️
⛽ 70.45p ↑+0.4%
⚡ £71.20 ↑+0.2%

Wind forecast falling. Lower wind output from 27 Dec onwards pushed demand expectations. Prices drifted higher on gas-for-power. Thin holiday liquidity.

WED–THU
25–26
⚠️
⛽ — No trading
⚡ — Christmas break

Christmas & Boxing Day. Markets closed. Conditions worsened: temperatures fell hard, cold demand 258–266mcm/day confirmed. Cold structural repricing already priced in by traders.

FRI
27
⬆️
⛽ 73.90p ↑+4.9%
⚡ £72.00 ↑+1.1%

Post-holiday spike. Markets reopened to cold reality: temperatures fell, Asgard maintenance continuing. Cold confirmed structural (349mcm demand +87 seasonal). Winter repricing began.

MON
30
⬆️⬆️
⛽ 76.75p ⬆️ ↑+3.9% PEAK
⚡ £84.01 ⬆️ ↑+16.7% PEAK

TROLL OUTAGE SHOCK. Norwegian field Troll went offline (7.1–20mcm/day offline). Cold peak confirmed. Combined panic repricing: gas +3.9%, power +16.7% (wind low). Week's highest point. But supply remained abundant from other sources (LNG, UK production, Langeled).

TUE
31
↘️
⛽ 74.75p ↓-2.6%
⚡ £81.50 ↓-3.0%

Troll recovery + milder forecasts. Troll outage confirmed temporary (recovery ramping). EC46 forecasts showed milder outlook from 2 Jan onwards. Geopolitical repricing: peace talks progress eased war premium. Prices fell hard on reality reassertion.

WED
1
→
⛽ 75.35p ↑+0.8%
⚡ £44.85 ↓-45% 💨

New Year trading restart. Gas consolidated slightly higher. Power crashed on wind ramp (13GW forecast, day-ahead down 36.65p). System long. Norwegian flows recovered (334mcm/day), peak cold passing by 9 Jan.

THU
2
↗️
⛽ 74.75p ↓-0.8%
⚡ £124.50 ↑+177% 🔥

Week close — volatility extreme. Gas settled near week-start level. Power spiked on wind forecast collapse then reversed on next-day recovery. Holiday liquidity thin. Forwards remained disciplined despite spot chaos.

The Week's Story

This was a holiday volatility week that taught us the difference between panic and fundamentals.

Markets reopened after the Christmas break to genuine cold (temperatures fell, demand 258–266mcm/day, confirmed structural). That was legitimate. Winter repricing began correctly. But then Troll went offline mid-week, and panic set in. Gas spiked 76.75p (peak), power hit 84£. This was real concern—but short-lived. By New Year, Troll recovery progress was clear, forecasts turned milder (peak cold passing 9 Jan), and geopolitical repricing (peace talks progress) eased war premium. Prices fell hard as reality reasserted: supply abundant, cold temporary, fundamentals stable.

What the week taught us:

🧊 Cold is Structural
349mcm demand +87 seasonal confirmed. Winter heating real. Prices repriced correctly upward mid-week.
⚠️ Outages aren't Crises
Troll offline was uncomfortable, not catastrophic. LNG, UK production, Langeled ramping. One field = 2% of Norwegian output loss. Supply abundant.
💨 Holiday Liquidity = Volatility
Thin trading Dec 25–Jan 2. Power swung 45% one day, 177% the next. Forwards stayed disciplined; spot went wild.
📊 Forwards > Spot Always
Your renewal quote is Jan-26 at 74.75p, not wild day-ahead swings. Near-term repriced harder (tactical hedge), longer-term stayed calm.

Full Price Table — End of Week

📊 Week Summary (23 Dec open → 2 Jan close)

Jan-26 Gas
73.19 → 74.75p
↑ +2.1%
Jan-26 Power
83.5 → £81.50
↓ -2.4%
Peak (30 Dec)
76.75p / £84.01
Troll shock
Range
70.15–76.75p
6.6p swing
Jan 2026 Peak Week
Gas
74.75p
Power
£81.50
Q1 2026 Near-term
Gas
71.75p
Power
£80.10
Apr–Jun 26 Spring
Gas (Q2)
66.71p
Power (Q2)
£71.40

❄️ Winter vs Spring — The Seasonal Reality

⛽ Jan-26 Gas
74.75p
⛽ Q2-26 Gas
66.71p
Savings
10.7%

What this means: Spring is significantly cheaper than winter for gas. If you can wait until April–June 2026 to renew, you'll save money. But if you need winter energy now, 74.75p is fair after a week of cold repricing and Troll shock. Don't hold out for impossible lower prices—lock now or lock spring, but don't sit exposed.

Should I Buy Now?

🟢 LOCK NOW

Cold is confirmed for 2+ weeks. Troll's outage proved supply is tested, not broken. Peak prices (76.75p) were panic; current prices (74.75p) are fair. Near-term repriced correctly; longer-term stayed calm. For renewals within 6 months, this is a good window.

🟢 Contract ends: Now – Feb 2026

LOCK THIS WEEK

You need winter energy soon. Gas: Jan-26 at 74.75p, Q1-26 at 71.75p. Power: Jan-26 at £81.50, Q1-26 at £80.10. Cold is confirmed through mid-January. These prices are fair after this week's repricing. Don't wait for drops that probably won't come.

🟢 Contract ends: Mar – Jun 2026

EXCELLENT VALUE

Spring pricing is significantly cheaper. Gas: Q2-26 at 66.71p (10.7% below winter). Power: Q2-26 at £71.40 (12% below winter). Lock now for spring renewals and you're locking genuine seasonal advantage. This is a strong buying opportunity.

🟡 Contract ends: Jul 2026+

MONITOR

You have time. These levels are attractive, but watch January unfold. Troll recovery, peak cold passage (9 Jan), and post-holiday normalisation will give you clarity. You can lock now or wait a few weeks, but don't expect dramatically lower prices. Supply is abundant, cold is real, war premium is off.

Cold Confirmed — Lock Winter Rates Now

Gas: Jan-26 at 74.75p, Q1-26 at 71.75p
Power: Jan-26 at £81.50, Q1-26 at £80.10
Peak was 76.75p. This week eased it. Cold is real but supply is abundant. Get same-day quotes across 28+ UK suppliers. No pressure.

Get Your Free Quote →

What Happens Next Week?

Peak cold 2–9 January. Wind ramps as temps recover. Troll running normally. Supply abundant. If peace talks stall, geopolitical premium snaps back—but currently off. The wild volatility of this week settles into winter baseline pricing. Stay informed on daily moves with weekly market updates.

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