Thomas McGlynn • 5 January 2026

December 2025 UK Energy Market Trends: Gas, Power & Oil

UK Energy Market Monthly Review: December 2025
📅 December 2025 | Monthly Review ⛽ Gas +4.5% ⚡ Power +13.9% 🟢 GET QUOTES

December 2025: The Month of Two Halves — Crash, Then Cold Repricing

December delivered a volatile ride. Early month saw Cal26 gas crash below 67p on peace talks and mild weather — the lowest prices of 2025. But cold emerged late month, wind fell, and a Troll outage sparked panic repricing. Month closed: Jan-26 at 74.75p gas, £81.50 power. The fundamentals shifted dramatically, but supply remained abundant throughout. A month that rewarded those who locked mid-month and tested nerves for those who waited.

⛽ GAS
Month Open
71.53p
Cal26 (28 Nov)
Month Low
65.42p
11 Dec ✓
Month High
76.75p
30 Dec (Troll)
Month Close
74.75p
↑ +4.5%
⚡ POWER
Month Open
£72.55
Cal26 (28 Nov)
Month Low
£66.08
18 Dec ✓
Month High
£88.33
16 Dec (wind)
Month Close
£81.50
↑ +13.9%

📊 Week-by-Week Breakdown

Week 49
1–5 Dec
📉
⛽ Cal26 66.94p ↓ -6.4%
⚡ Cal26 £69.94 ↓ -3.6%

Cal26 crashes below 67p — biggest week of falls. Friday saw Cal26 crash 3.5% in a single session. Peace talks progress (Witkoff-Putin), mild weather arriving, strong wind generation, and abundant LNG supply combined for the largest weekly drop of 2025. Q1-26 down 8%. Fundamentals took over from geopolitics. Best buying opportunity of the year for those who moved.

Week 50
8–12 Dec
📉
⛽ Cal26 65.78p ↓ -1.7%
⚡ Cal26 £69.40 ↓ -0.8%

Possible bottom forming — smallest drops in four weeks. Volatile week with Cal26 swinging between 65.42p (Thursday low — month's floor) and 67.41p. Warm weather and strong LNG continued to dominate despite low wind concerns. Friday's uptick suggested bottom was forming. Gas down 15% in four weeks, power down 8%. Pace of decline clearly slowing.

Week 51
15–19 Dec
↔️
⛽ Jan-26 73.10p ↓ -1.4%
⚡ Jan-26 £83.45 ↑ +2.1%

Sideways consolidation, then cold repricing Friday. Gas rangebound around 70p all week (just 1.9p range). Power volatile — spiked +14.9% Tuesday on wind forecasts, crashed -13.1% Wednesday. Friday repricing on cold patterns (2–3°C below normal) and wind falling below seasonal. Peace talks continued easing war premium. The turn had begun.

Week 52
23 Dec–2 Jan
⚠️
⛽ Jan-26 74.75p ↑ +2.1%
⚡ Jan-26 £81.50 ↑ +0.6%

Holiday rollercoaster: Troll outage panic, then reality. Christmas cold hit hard. Then Norwegian field Troll went offline 30 Dec — gas spiked to 76.75p (month high), power to £84.01. Panic repricing in thin holiday liquidity. By New Year, Troll recovering, forecasts milder, prices eased. Cold confirmed structural but supply abundant. Volatility extreme but forwards disciplined.

The Month's Story

December 2025 was a month of two halves that tested every assumption about energy markets.

The month opened with markets still digesting November's peace-talks rally. Cal26 gas entered December at 71.53p — already down from October's highs. What followed in the first two weeks was remarkable: prices crashed through floor after floor. By 5 December, Cal26 had broken below 67p for the first time. By 11 December, it hit 65.42p — the month's low and the best buying opportunity of 2025.

The drivers were straightforward: mild weather, strong wind generation crushing gas-for-power demand, abundant LNG arrivals at UK terminals, and continued progress on Russia-Ukraine peace talks easing the geopolitical risk premium. Fundamentals had taken over completely from geopolitics. Those who locked contracts in Week 50 secured exceptional value.

Then the weather models shifted. From 17 December onwards, forecasts showed wind speeds falling below seasonal normal and cold patterns emerging (2–3°C below normal for late December through early January). This wasn't panic — it was legitimate repricing. Power spiked first (wind-sensitive), then gas followed. Friday 19 December saw gas rally +4.3% in a single session.

The final week delivered peak volatility. Christmas cold was genuine — demand hit 258–266mcm/day, well above seasonal normal. Then on 30 December, Norwegian field Troll went offline unexpectedly. In thin holiday liquidity, panic repricing drove gas to 76.75p (month high) and power to £84.01. But by New Year, reality reasserted: Troll was recovering, forecasts turned milder, and prices eased to close at 74.75p gas, £81.50 power.

What December taught us:

📉 Best Prices Were Mid-Month
Cal26 at 65.42p (11 Dec) was 14% below month close. Those who locked in Week 50 secured the year's best value. Waiting for "the bottom" meant missing it.
🌡️ Weather Repricing is Legitimate
Cold + low wind = higher demand for gas-for-power. The late-month repricing wasn't panic — it was fundamentals. Winter premium exists for real reasons.
⚠️ Outages Aren't Crises
Troll offline caused panic, but supply remained abundant. LNG, UK production, and other Norwegian flows covered the gap. One field = 2% of Norwegian output.
📊 Forwards Stay Disciplined
Spot prices swung wildly (power ±177% in one week). But forward contracts — what you actually renew on — moved less. Near-term repriced harder than longer-term.

December Price Summary

📊 Month Movement (28 Nov → 2 Jan)

Gas (Near-term)
71.53 → 74.75p
↑ +4.5%
Power (Near-term)
£72.55 → £81.50
↑ +13.9%
Month Low (Gas)
65.42p
11 Dec ✓
Month High (Gas)
76.75p
30 Dec (Troll)
Jan 2026 Winter Peak
Gas
74.75p
Power
£81.50
Q1 2026 Winter Avg
Gas
71.75p
Power
£80.10
Q2 2026 Spring
Gas
66.71p
Power
£71.40

❄️ Winter vs Spring — The Seasonal Reality

⛽ Jan-26 Gas
74.75p
⛽ Q2-26 Gas
66.71p
Gas Savings
10.7%
Power Savings
12.4%

What this means: Spring is significantly cheaper than winter — 10.7% on gas, 12.4% on power. If you can wait until April+ to renew, you'll save. But if you need winter energy now, current prices are fair after December's cold repricing. Don't hold out for lows that already passed in Week 50.

📈 December's Volatility in Context

Gas Range (Month)
65.42p – 76.75p
11.33p swing (17%)
Power Range (Month)
£66.08 – £88.33
£22.25 swing (34%)
Biggest Single Day (Gas)
+4.9%
27 Dec (post-Christmas)
Biggest Single Day (Power)
+26.2%
19 Dec (cold repricing)

Should I Lock My Renewal Now?

🟢 GET QUOTES

December's lows (65.42p) are gone. Current prices (74.75p gas, £81.50 power) are fair after cold repricing. Winter premium is real — cold is confirmed through mid-January. Supply is abundant (Troll recovered, LNG flowing, Norway strong). Geopolitical risk premium is largely off. For winter renewals, these prices are reasonable. For spring renewals, excellent value. Don't wait for lows that already passed.

🟢 Contract ends: Now – Feb 2026

LOCK THIS WEEK

You need winter energy soon. Gas: Jan-26 at 74.75p, Q1-26 at 71.75p. Power: Jan-26 at £81.50, Q1-26 at £80.10. Cold is confirmed through mid-January. These prices are fair after December's repricing — don't wait for drops that probably won't come until spring. The lows of Week 50 (65.42p) are gone.

🟢 Contract ends: Mar – Jun 2026

EXCELLENT VALUE

Spring pricing is significantly cheaper than winter. Gas: Q2-26 at 66.71p (10.7% below Jan-26). Power: Q2-26 at £71.40 (12.4% below Jan-26). Lock now for April–June renewals — you're locking genuine seasonal advantage while winter premium is temporary. This is a strong buying opportunity.

🟡 Contract ends: Jul 2026+

MONITOR

You have time. These levels are attractive, but watch January unfold. Peak cold passes around 9 Jan. Supply is abundant globally — Troll recovered, LNG flowing, geopolitical premium off. You can lock now or wait a few weeks, but don't expect dramatically lower prices. The Week 50 lows were the year's best opportunity.

📅 December's Key Events

5 Dec
Cal26 crashes below 67p — biggest single-day drop (3.5%). Peace talks + mild weather + strong wind.
11 Dec
Month low: Cal26 hits 65.42p. Best buying opportunity of 2025. Gas down 15% in four weeks.
17 Dec
Wind forecasts drop below seasonal normal. Cold patterns emerge (2–3°C below normal). Repricing begins.
19 Dec
Friday repricing: Gas +4.3%, power +26.2% on cold + wind confirmation. The turn is complete.
25–26 Dec
Markets closed. Cold hits hard — demand 258–266mcm/day confirmed. Structural winter repricing priced in.
30 Dec
Month high: Troll outage shock. Gas spikes to 76.75p, power to £84.01. Panic in thin holiday liquidity.
2 Jan
Troll recovering, forecasts milder. Reality reasserts. Month closes: 74.75p gas, £81.50 power.

December's Lows Are Gone — Lock Winter Rates Now

Gas: Jan-26 at 74.75p, Q1-26 at 71.75p, Q2-26 at 66.71p
Power: Jan-26 at £81.50, Q1-26 at £80.10, Q2-26 at £71.40
Week 50's lows (65.42p) were the year's best opportunity. Current prices are fair after cold repricing. Supply abundant, winter premium real. Get same-day quotes across 28+ UK suppliers.

Get Your Free Quote →

What to Watch in January 2026

Peak cold passes around 9 January. Wind expected to recover. Troll fully operational. Peace talks continue — if deal confirmed, expect further geopolitical repricing. Supply abundant globally. January will test whether December's winter premium holds or eases as spring approaches.

⭐ Join the Market Updates

< Older Post

Newer Post >

Keep Reading

📰 All Blogs 📊 Weekly Reports 📈 Monthly Reports 💰 Out of Contract Rates ⚡ Supplier Updates 🏭 Industry Changes