UK Energy Market Update: 2nd - 6th March 2026
Week 1 of the US–Iran conflict. Gas surged 67% as Qatar halted LNG production and the Strait of Hormuz closed. Prices eased slightly from peaks mid-week but remain at crisis levels. Read our full analysis →
Gas rockets 67% as Middle East crisis hits supplies
Get quotes immediately if you're renewing soon. The Middle East conflict has sent prices through the roof, but longer-term contracts are still much cheaper than today's panic levels. Don't hang about though — those future prices are climbing too.
💡 The market is pricing in supply disruption fears, but expects prices to fall back once the crisis passes. Forward contracts for 2027 are 39% below current levels — that's the market betting this is temporary, not permanent. But if Hormuz stays closed and Qatar stays offline, those future prices will keep climbing too.
📊 This Week vs Last Week
The biggest weekly move in UK wholesale energy prices since the start of the Ukraine crisis in 2022.
📈 Gas & Electricity Price Trend (Sum-26)
UK wholesale gas and electricity over the last 5 weeks. Hover or tap for values.
🔍 What Moved the Market
What Happened This Week
Gas prices surged from 78p to 131p (up 67%) while electricity jumped from £71 to £102 (up 44%). The trigger was the US–Iran conflict escalating into full-scale war, with Qatar shutting LNG facilities and oil tankers avoiding the Strait of Hormuz. Prices hit multi-year highs mid-week before easing slightly on peace talk hopes, but remain at crisis levels heading into next week.
The Full Story
What started as a normal Monday quickly turned into the most dramatic week for energy markets since Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Gas markets opened 26% higher after US–Israel strikes on Iran over the weekend and just kept climbing, hitting 141p by Wednesday — the highest level in years. Oil prices jumped 14% and Qatar shut down key LNG facilities after Iranian drone strikes, while tankers queued at both ends of the Strait of Hormuz, unable to get insurance to pass through.
The panic buying eased mid-week when world leaders started talking about peace negotiations and the European Commission reassured markets that gas storage levels remain stable. By Thursday, the US had effectively destroyed Iran's navy — sinking over 20 vessels — which shifted the calculus on whether shipping could eventually resume through Hormuz. But prices are still nearly double where they were last Friday, showing just how exposed the market remains to any further escalation.
Power prices got dragged along for the ride, jumping 44% as gas-fired power stations became much more expensive to run. Lower wind speeds across Europe compounded the problem, meaning more gas was needed for electricity generation at exactly the point when gas prices were surging.
Key Days
Weekend US–Israel strikes sent shockwaves through European markets. OPEC+ announced a modest output increase but it did little to calm nerves.
European gas benchmark surged a further 35%. Brent crude hit mid-$80s. Goldman Sachs raised TTF forecasts and warned €74+ possible.
Peak panic as Qatar declared force majeure. US destroyed 20+ Iranian naval vessels. Trump announced potential Navy escorts for tankers through Hormuz.
EU Commission said no immediate supply risks. Senate voted down War Powers Act. Mojtaba Khamenei elected new Iranian supreme leader.
Iran denied peace talk reports. QatarEnergy confirmed restart could take weeks. Market settled with gas at 131.50p (up 67% on the week) and power at £102.14 (up 44%).
Forward Prices
Where the market expects prices to be. Further out = cheaper, because the market expects this crisis to pass.
📉 Forward Curve — Why Longer Contracts Are Cheaper
The market expects this crisis to pass. The further out you lock in, the cheaper the rate — but those future prices are rising too.
When Should You Buy?
Crisis pricing. These rates have nearly doubled in a week. If your contract is ending, get multiple quotes quickly — supplier pricing is catching up fast and the window before full repricing is closing.
Still slightly below today's crisis levels but climbing fast. Get quotes now before these rates catch up with current panic pricing.
Summer rates are still 11% below today's crisis pricing, suggesting the market expects tensions to ease by then. Rising but from a lower base. You could wait a bit longer but keep watching closely.
Winter rates are 20% below current levels and rising more slowly. The market clearly expects the Middle East crisis to resolve before then. Worth waiting unless you need budget certainty now.
2027 rates are still 39% below today's crisis pricing and only up 17% this week. The market expects normal service to resume by then. Unless you need to fix now for budget planning, you can probably wait.
👀 Looking Ahead
All eyes on Middle East developments — any escalation could push prices even higher, while genuine peace progress could see sharp falls. Key things to watch: whether QatarEnergy gives a restart timeline, whether US Navy escorts allow tankers through Hormuz, and how Iran's new supreme leader responds. Wind generation forecasts remain weak until mid-month, keeping gas-for-power demand elevated. The next few days will be crucial for determining whether this is a short spike or something longer lasting.
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