UK Energy Market Update: 9th - 13th March 2026
Week 2 of the Iran conflict. The most volatile week in UK energy markets since the 2022 Ukraine crisis. Gas peaked at 135p, crashed 11%, bounced back, and closed at 124p. Full conflict analysis →
The Most Volatile Week Yet — Gas Peaked at 135p, Crashed 11%, Then Bounced Back
Brent crude hit $119 then crashed to $88 then climbed back above $105 — all in five days. UK gas swung from 127p to 135p to 114p to 124p. The IEA called it the "largest supply disruption in history." Prices closed the week slightly lower but still up 73% in 30 days.
💡 Don't be fooled by the weekly dip. This week's -2.5% masks the most violent price swings since the 2022 Ukraine crisis. Gas peaked at 135p on Tuesday, crashed 11% on Wednesday when Trump said the war would end "very soon," then bounced straight back when ships were attacked in Hormuz and Iran confirmed laying mines. Prices closed the week slightly lower — but the supply disruption has got worse, not better.
📊 This Week vs Last Week
Despite huge intraweek swings (gas hit 135p on Tuesday, crashed to 114p on Wednesday), both fuels actually closed higher than last week's close. The weekly dip in the auto-generated headline is against this week's Monday open — but compared to where we were on Friday 6th, prices are up.
📈 How Prices Moved — 30-Day View
Sum-26 gas and power forwards — showing pre-conflict levels through to this week's close
What Happened This Week
This was the most volatile week in UK energy markets since the 2022 Ukraine crisis. On Monday, gas jumped 8.4% after the US struck oil depots and refineries for the first time over the weekend. On Tuesday, Brent crude hit $119.50 — the highest since 2022 — and UK gas peaked at 134.72p, up 87% in 30 days.
Then came Wednesday's crash. Trump told CBS the war was "very complete, pretty much" and would end "very soon." Gas plunged 10.8% in a single session — the biggest one-day drop since the conflict began. Brent fell 11% to $87.80. For about 12 hours, it looked like the worst was over.
It wasn't. On Thursday, three ships were attacked near Hormuz, Iran confirmed laying approximately a dozen mines, and launched its "most intense operation" yet. The IEA released a record 400 million barrels from strategic reserves — but Brent surged back above $100 as the physical disruption outweighed the reserves. On Friday, Iran's new Supreme Leader broke his silence, vowing to keep Hormuz closed as a "tool of pressure." The IEA called this the "largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market."
The week closed with gas at 123.65p — slightly below Monday's open but dramatically higher than Wednesday's low of 114p. The supply fundamentals got worse, not better: Hormuz is still closed, Qatar LNG still offline, Iraq's oil ports have shut, and mines are now in the water.
Key Days
Weekend escalation — US struck oil storage depots and refineries for the first time. Mojtaba Khamenei fired his first missiles as new Supreme Leader. Russia reportedly sharing intelligence with Iran. LNG tanker sunk in the Mediterranean.
Oil passed $100 for the first time since 2022. Cal-27 surged 9.3% in a single session — markets no longer treating this as short-term. Hormuz disruption now the longest since the Suez Crisis. G7 discussed strategic reserves but stopped short of releasing them.
Biggest single-day drop since the conflict began. Trump told CBS the war was "very complete, pretty much." But his own Pentagon promised the "most intense day of strikes" yet. Iran's IRGC: "Iran will determine when the war ends." Reports of mine-laying in Hormuz.
Ceasefire hope lasted less than 24 hours. Three ships attacked near Hormuz. Iran confirmed ~dozen mines. IEA released record 400 million barrels from reserves — but Brent surged back above $100 regardless. Iraq's oil ports shut completely. Iran warned oil could hit $200.
Iran's new Supreme Leader broke his silence — vowed Hormuz stays closed as "tool of pressure." IEA called this the "largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market" — 8 million barrels/day offline. US temporarily lifted sanctions on Russian oil. 3.2 million displaced in Iran.
🔍 What Moved the Market
Forward Prices — Where the Market Expects Prices to Go
Gas and power forward curves as at Friday 13 March close
The forward curve is in steep backwardation — near-term contracts are dramatically more expensive than longer-dated ones. Cal-27 at 92p is 25% cheaper than current Sum-26 rates. But even Cal-27 has jumped significantly this month. The market expects the crisis to ease eventually, but is pricing in sustained disruption through 2026.
What This Means for Renewals
Gas is up 73% in 30 days. Wednesday's dip lasted less than 24 hours. Iran's new leader has vowed Hormuz stays closed. The IEA calls this the largest supply disruption in history. Suppliers are repricing daily. If your contract is ending soon, get quotes now while there's still a gap between near-term and longer-dated rates.
Get a benchmark quote so you have a reference point. Summer and winter 2026 contracts have moved sharply. This week showed prices can swing 10%+ in a single day — knowing where you stand helps you act quickly if a window opens.
Cal-27 at 92p is 25% cheaper than current rates — the market expects the crisis to ease. But it's jumped significantly this month. If you're renewing for 2027, you have time, but keep an eye on it.
👀 What to Watch Next Week
Over the weekend, the US struck Iran's Kharg Island — the facility that handles 90% of Iran's crude exports. Brent is now at $105. Trump says Iran "wants to make a deal" but Iran's Foreign Minister said "we never asked for a ceasefire." Trump is calling for a naval coalition to open Hormuz.
Mild weather is easing near-term gas demand, but temperatures are forecast to drop back to seasonal norms from 21 March — which will increase heating demand heading into late March. Even if a ceasefire is reached, mine-clearing, Qatar LNG restart, and Kharg Island rebuilding mean the supply disruption will outlast the fighting.
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