February 2026 UK Energy Market Trends: Gas, Power & Oil
Since this blog was published, the US–Iran situation has escalated sharply. On 1 March, US and Israeli forces launched strikes on Iran. Energy markets have moved significantly. Read our full analysis →
February energy prices dropped over 10%
Gas fell 6.9% to 78.49p and power dropped 11.9% to £71.12 in February. Mild weather and healthy LNG deliveries outweighed geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran. With prices down this much, get quotes now for renewals.
⛽ GAS
⚡ POWER
📊 Week-by-Week Breakdown
The month started with cold weather fears but markets tumbled as temperature forecasts turned milder. The threatened deep freeze never materialised, letting air out of the winter premium.
Prices continued falling as US-Iran talks began and weather stayed mild. Strong LNG deliveries into Europe and healthy Norwegian flows kept supplies comfortable despite some pipeline maintenance.
Markets bounced back as US-Iran talks stalled and Trump threatened military action. Geopolitical risk premiums returned even though weather remained favourable and wind generation was strong.
A quieter finish to the month with prices treading water. No breakthrough in Geneva talks kept some tension in the market, but continued mild weather prevented any major moves higher.
The Month's Story
What February Taught Us
Mild temperatures drove bigger price moves than US-Iran tensions throughout February
Strong deliveries into Europe offset concerns about Middle East supply risks
Above-average wind generation reduced gas demand for power stations
Electricity prices fell nearly 12% as carbon costs collapsed alongside gas
February Price Summary
❄️ Winter vs Spring — The Seasonal Reality
The seasonal curve has flattened after this mild winter, with smaller savings for switching to summer contracts. Next winter still carries a premium but it's much reduced from the peaks we saw in January.
📈 February's Volatility in Context
Should I Lock My Renewal Now?
⚠️ Important: This guidance was written based on February's closing prices. Since 1 March, the US–Iran conflict has escalated into military action and markets have moved sharply higher. The advice below still reflects the general direction, but supplier pricing will have shifted. Read our latest analysis for up-to-date guidance.
Prices are down over 10% from January peaks. Lock in these lower levels before any supply scares or weather changes push them back up.
Summer prices haven't fallen as much due to storage concerns. Wait to see if they follow the recent spot market weakness before committing.
Next winter could be tighter if this mild weather leads to lower storage levels. Let the supply picture become clearer through spring and summer.
Longer-term prices look reasonable with the curve showing decent savings versus current levels. No rush but good value if you need the certainty.
📅 February's Key Events
Lock in February's 10%+ price drops
Gas: 78.49p · Power: £71.12
We compare 28+ suppliers to find you the best deal — no pressure, no obligation.
Get Your Free Quote →⭐ 100% five-star reviews on Trustpilot · Independent broker since 2014
👀 What to Watch in March 2026
The diplomatic situation we were tracking throughout February escalated dramatically on 1 March, when US and Israeli forces launched strikes on Iran. The Strait of Hormuz — through which 20% of the world's oil and a significant share of global LNG passes — has been effectively shut down. European gas markets opened over 20% higher on the first trading day, and Brent crude surged past $78.
February's mild weather kept prices in check despite political tensions — but that balance has now tipped. The key questions for March are whether Hormuz disruptions persist, how quickly alternative supply routes can compensate, and whether the conflict expands or de-escalates. Norwegian maintenance at Nyhamna also starts this month, taking around 20mcm offline.
Expect significant volatility. If your contract is up for renewal in the coming months, it's worth getting quotes now to understand where you stand — but don't panic. We saw a similar pattern in June 2025 when prices spiked 18% then recovered within weeks.
⭐ Join the Market Updates
