UK Energy Market Update: 15th - 19th September 2025

A strange week on the surface

Day-Ahead electricity plunged on two sessions then rebounded, while gas stayed fairly steady. Under the bonnet, the forward curve (what suppliers use to build your renewal prices) nudged higher across winter and into summer 2026. Translation: headline DA falls don’t automatically mean cheaper renewal quotes.

📊 Weekly Market Snapshot (Day-Ahead)

Why this matters: These are wholesale cash prices for tomorrow’s delivery. They’re useful signals for short-term tightness, but your contract is priced off the forward curve, not tomorrow’s delivery.

*Power average was pulled down by two unusually low sessions (Tue & Thu), which is not reflective of the broader contract market.

Daily prints this week (DA):
Mon 79.00p/44.69 | Tue 78.00p/28.65 | Wed 78.60p/73.53 | Thu 78.82p/48.16 | Fri 80.90p/77.00

📈 5 Week Price Trend

*Recent DA power averages include one-off dips; use for direction only, not for contract planning.

📈 Forward Market Pricing — what suppliers actually watch

While DA shows the weather-and-system noise, forward contracts show where suppliers expect prices to be. Week-on-week (vs 12 Sep) most key strips ticked up 2–4%.

UK Gas (p/therm)

• Oct-25: 81.50 (from 79.22) ▲ +2.9%
• Q4-25: 85.35 (83.52) ▲ +2.2%
• Q1-26: 89.15 (87.82) ▲ +1.5%
• Summer-26: 79.99 (78.23) ▲ +2.3%
• Cal-26: 83.80 (82.15) ▲ +2.0%

UK Power (£/MWh)

• Oct-25: 77.18 (74.02) ▲ +4.3%
• Q4-25: 82.77 (80.76) ▲ +2.5%
• Q1-26: 87.16 (85.48) ▲ +2.0%
• Summer-26: 75.74 (73.76) ▲ +2.7%
• Cal-26: 80.59 (78.80) ▲ +2.3%



What this means: Despite soft DA power, the curve firmed into winter and modestly for Summer-26. Renewal quotes will reflect these forward levels, not the short-term DA dips.

🧠 Why prices moved & What's Next

📉 6-Month Market Trend

Looking at the past six months of wholesale energy prices reveals important patterns:

• Gas: range-bound ~75–85 p/th for months, drifting slightly higher late September.
• Power: far more volatile with several sharp drops, but the underlying forward market has stayed well above the deepest DA troughs.
  

Translation: use DA to sense near-term balance, but plan off forwards.

We’ll compare Oct–Mar vs longer terms and lock in if the curve moves against you

What to do by renewal window

💷 What this means for your business

• DA power was artificially low at times, but supplier quotes follow the curve, which rose.

• Winter 25 / Q1-26 remain the priciest periods; later strips are cheaper but nudging up.



• If your renewal touches winter, acting early typically beats chasing short-term DA dips.

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🧠 Final thoughts

Headline DA power falls looked friendly, but the contract-relevant market firmed. If your renewal is within the next six months, fixing now protects you from winter risk and creeping forward gains. Longer-dated customers should stay engaged and be ready to move on dips.



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