Gas eases Friday but up 4% on the week
Gas ended the week at 120.37p — down 1.8% from Monday's open but still 4.1% above last Friday's 115.60p. Power tracked similarly, finishing at £99.03, up 3.4% on the week. Near-term forward contracts have risen 20-28% over the past 30 days.
Gas is 15% above its 30-day average and near-term contracts have risen 20-28% over the past month — if you're renewing in 2026, get quotes now before prices climb further.
What Happened This Week
This week had a clear story arc: geopolitics pushed prices up hard on Monday, Norway knocked them higher mid-week, then peace talk progress pulled them back sharply on Thursday. Gas opened the week at 122.58p with the Middle East tension premium firmly baked in — Trump's 'clock is ticking' comments about Iran sent the NBP Jun-26 contract briefly to around 128p/therm on Tuesday before he paused plans for military action, taking some of the heat out of the market. Wednesday brought a fresh spike to the week's high of 126.07p, driven by Norwegian maintenance removing up to 280mcm/day of supply. Thursday reversed most of that gain — gas dropped 4.5% in a single session as Iran coordinated safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz and Trump indicated talks were nearing a conclusion, with power markets falling in tandem.
Beneath the geopolitical noise, the supply and demand picture remained tight. May has been cooler than expected, which kept heating demand elevated and slowed European storage injections — the continent is building its gas reserves more slowly than it would like heading into summer. LNG supply concerns added to that, with worries that any industrial disruption could squeeze global deliveries into Europe further. On the other side, the warm spell arriving over the bank holiday weekend should cut demand noticeably, and strong solar generation has been helping power markets. Wind has been weaker though, meaning overall renewable output for the UK has been below where it could be.
Zoom out and the picture is less comfortable than this week's Friday close might suggest. Near-term forward contracts are up 20-28% over the past 30 days — Q3 26 is up 27.5%, Q4 26 up 24.5%, and Win 26 up roughly 22% in a month. The current front month at 120.37p sits 15% above its 30-day average of 104.61p. Thursday's fall was welcome, but it came off a high that didn't exist a month ago. If you're renewing a contract that starts in the next 12 months, the direction of travel over the past month is the number that matters most — and it's been heading the wrong way.
What Moved the Market
Where Prices Are Right Now
Wholesale rates at week-end close. Your business rate will be higher.
| Contract | Price | Week | 30d |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun-26 | 120.71p | +3.4% | +26.9% |
| Jul-26 | 120.06p | +3.8% | +28.2% |
| Aug-26 | 120.37p | +4.1% | N/A |
| Q3-26 | 120.65p | +4.2% | +27.5% |
| Q4-26 | 123.47p | +5.4% | +24.5% |
| Q1-27 | 120.50p | +4.9% | +21.4% |
| Win-26 | 122.00p | +5.2% | N/A |
| Sum-27 | 86.24p | +1.9% | +10.6% |
| Win-27 | 86.80p | +1.5% | +9.1% |
| Sum-28 | 63.95p | +0.4% | +3.2% |
| Cal-27 | 94.73p | +2.8% | +13.7% |
| Cal-28 | 71.15p | +0.9% | +4.8% |
| Cal-29 | 63.99p | +1.0% | +0.3% |
| Contract | Price | Week | 30d |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun-26 | £101.31 | +2.2% | +19.2% |
| Jul-26 | £101.30 | +3.7% | +21.3% |
| Aug-26 | £99.03 | +3.4% | N/A |
| Q3-26 | £100.70 | +3.0% | +19.8% |
| Q4-26 | £103.33 | +4.1% | +17.7% |
| Q1-27 | £101.26 | +3.1% | +15.1% |
| Win-26 | £102.31 | +3.6% | N/A |
| Sum-27 | £74.86 | +0.1% | +6.0% |
| Win-27 | £78.16 | +0.1% | +4.0% |
| Cal-27 | £82.27 | +1.0% | +8.1% |
| Cal-28 | £65.77 | -1.2% | +0.2% |
| Cal-29 | £63.59 | -1.2% | -2.0% |
What To Do About Your Contract
Near-term contracts have risen 20-28% over the past 30 days — Q4 26 gas is up 24.5% and Q1 27 gas is up 21.4% in that time. Thursday's dip is encouraging but doesn't change the broader upward trend. Get quotes now and lock something in before the next geopolitical spike.
Cal-27 gas has risen 13.7% over 30 days to 94.73p, and Cal-27 power is up 8.1% to £82.27 — both moving in the wrong direction, though still well below current front-month rates. You have time, but the trend is not your friend right now. Keep a close eye on the Iran situation — a genuine peace deal could pull these prices back meaningfully.
Cal-28 and Cal-29 contracts have barely moved over 30 days — gas Cal-29 is up just 0.3% and power Cal-29 is actually down 2.0%. The market still expects prices to fall considerably by 2028-29, with Cal-29 gas at 63.99p roughly half the current front-month rate. No need to act now — watch how the geopolitical picture develops.
📈 For energy buyers — full forward curve, Sum-27, look-ahead
Sum-27 gas at 86.24p (+1.9% this week, +10.6% over 30 days) and Sum-27 power at £74.86 (+0.1%/wk, +6.0%/30d). Sum-27 sits beyond the immediate near-term volatility window so it tracks differently from the front month.
Forward curve shape: The curve tells a clear story: near-term pain, long-term relief. Gas at 120p today is expected to fall to 94p by Cal-27, 71p by Cal-28, and 64p by Cal-29 — the market is pricing in a gradual easing of supply pressures over the next few years, assuming geopolitical tensions settle down.
Look ahead: The main thing to watch next week is whether the US-Iran talks produce anything concrete — a deal or a breakdown would both move prices sharply. Norwegian supply returning to normal levels after the Kollsnes and Troll maintenance will also be key; any extensions to those outages could push prices back up. The warm bank holiday weather should keep demand low and storage injections ticking along, which would be a gentle downward pull — but it won't offset a geopolitical shock if one comes.
Where The Market Is Today —
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Source: ICE Endex / SEFE daily reports · Smart Energy Company — Independent energy broker since 2014
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