Gas up 8% as cold snap and Middle East push prices higher
Gas finished the week at 115.60p — up 8.1% on the week and 18.5% above the recent 5-week average of 97.56p. Power followed, rising 7.4% to £95.73. With no 30-day baseline available for front-month contracts this week, the 5-week range tells the story: prices are at the top end.
Gas jumped 8.1% this week to a 5-week high of 115.60p, driven by cold weather across Europe and an escalating Middle East — if you're renewing in the next 6 months, get quotes now.
What Happened This Week
The week opened with gas prices broadly flat — but that calm didn't last long. By Tuesday prices had jumped 5% in a single session as the market digested Monday's news: Trump had rejected Iran's ceasefire proposal outright, describing it as 'totally unacceptable', and Norwegian maintenance at Gullfaks was removing another 9mcm/day from supply. Oil climbed to $107/bbl, pulling the wider energy complex higher with it. Wednesday and Thursday added smaller gains — 1.3% and 0.3% respectively — as the market held its nerve while Trump met Xi in Beijing. The meeting was described as 'great', which took some of the geopolitical heat out briefly, but Friday closed at 115.60p as the week's momentum held firm.
Three things drove prices this week, and they all pointed the same way. First, temperatures across North-West Europe ran 3–6°C below seasonal average for the entire week — German demand alone ran 30mcm/day above normal, France and the Netherlands added more on top. In May, that kind of demand spike is unusual and it kept the gas grid under pressure. Second, the Middle East situation gave the market no reason to relax — with no ceasefire agreed and both sides staying in a holding pattern, the risk premium stayed baked in. Third, US LNG supply returned to terminals more slowly than expected after maintenance, reducing the flexible cargo supply that Europe competes for with Asian buyers. Wind generation did provide some offset on power, keeping electricity price gains slightly more muted than gas — but not enough to pull the overall picture lower.
With no 30-day front-month baseline available this week, the clearest context comes from the 5-week range: prices have moved from a low of 83.28p to this week's high of 115.60p, a rise of 38.8%, and are now 18.5% above the 5-week average. Forward contracts for Cal-27 are up 4% over 30 days, Cal-28 up 2%, and Cal-29 is slightly lower at -4.2% — meaning the market broadly expects prices to ease in 2028 and 2029, but the near-term picture is firmly heading up. For anyone renewing in the next 6–12 months, this is not a market where waiting is obviously the right call.
What Moved the Market
Where Prices Are Right Now
Wholesale rates at week-end close. Your business rate will be higher.
| Contract | Price | Week | 30d |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun-26 | 116.78p | +8.6% | +8.1% |
| Jul-26 | 115.69p | +8.6% | +8.6% |
| Aug-26 | 115.60p | +8.4% | N/A |
| Q3-26 | 115.83p | +8.3% | +8.3% |
| Q4-26 | 117.13p | +6.2% | +6.0% |
| Q1-27 | 114.89p | +4.6% | +4.8% |
| Win-26 | 116.02p | +5.4% | N/A |
| Sum-27 | 84.67p | +1.3% | +3.0% |
| Win-27 | 85.51p | +0.3% | +4.2% |
| Sum-28 | 63.71p | -0.5% | +1.5% |
| Cal-27 | 92.18p | +2.2% | +4.0% |
| Cal-28 | 70.54p | -0.4% | +2.0% |
| Cal-29 | 63.36p | -0.4% | -4.2% |
| Contract | Price | Week | 30d |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun-26 | £99.17 | +8.3% | +9.6% |
| Jul-26 | £97.68 | +7.8% | +9.6% |
| Aug-26 | £95.73 | +7.5% | N/A |
| Q3-26 | £97.72 | +7.7% | +9.2% |
| Q4-26 | £99.24 | +5.5% | +9.8% |
| Q1-27 | £98.23 | +4.5% | +8.1% |
| Win-26 | £98.74 | +5.0% | N/A |
| Sum-27 | £74.81 | +1.5% | +6.0% |
| Win-27 | £78.10 | +1.4% | +3.9% |
| Cal-27 | £81.48 | +2.4% | +6.1% |
| Cal-28 | £66.57 | +0.8% | -0.7% |
| Cal-29 | £64.37 | +0.1% | -3.3% |
What To Do About Your Contract
Near-term contracts are at their highest point in the 5-week window, up 8.1% on gas and 7.4% on power in a single week. The drivers — cold weather, Middle East tensions, Norwegian supply cuts — aren't going away quickly. Get quotes now and lock in before prices climb further.
Cal-27 is up 4% on gas and 6.1% on power over the last 30 days — heading in the wrong direction, but at a much steadier pace than near-term contracts. You've got time, but the trend is slowly moving against you. Watch closely over the next few weeks; if Cal-27 pushes meaningfully higher, it's worth acting.
Cal-28 and Cal-29 contracts are barely moving — gas is up 2% and down 4.2% respectively over 30 days, and power is slightly lower on both. The market still expects prices to ease significantly by 2028, with Cal-29 gas at 63.36p versus today's 115.60p. No urgency here — keep watching.
📈 For energy buyers — full forward curve, Sum-27, look-ahead
Sum-27 gas at 84.67p (+1.3% this week, +3.0% over 30 days) and Sum-27 power at £74.81 (+1.5%/wk, +6.0%/30d). Sum-27 sits beyond the immediate near-term volatility window so it tracks differently from the front month.
Forward curve shape: The curve drops steeply beyond Winter 2026 — gas falls from 115.60p today to 92.18p for Cal-27, then 70.54p for Cal-28 and 63.36p for Cal-29, suggesting the market expects the current price pressure to ease over the next two to three years as supply normalises and demand moderates.
Look ahead: The key things to watch next week are whether the Iran–US talks make any progress — any movement towards a deal would likely pull prices back, while further breakdown could push them higher still. European temperatures are the other one to keep an eye on; if the below-seasonal conditions persist into late May, storage injection targets for Winter 2026 become harder to hit, which will keep near-term contracts under pressure. Also worth watching: whether US LNG feedgas levels recover at Corpus Christi, Freeport and Cameron — any further delays into summer would tighten the global LNG picture.
Where The Market Is Today —
Know Where You Stand
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Source: ICE Endex / SEFE daily reports · Smart Energy Company — Independent energy broker since 2014
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