UK Energy Market Update: 23rd - 27th Feb 2026
This report covers the week ending Friday 27 February and does not reflect the major escalation in the US–Iran conflict over the weekend.
Oil prices have surged over 9% on Monday morning, and the Strait of Hormuz — through which 20% of global oil and gas flows — has seen shipping largely halt. UK wholesale gas and electricity prices are expected to move sharply higher when markets open. The Friday price jump flagged in this report has since escalated significantly.
📅 We'll publish an updated market briefing this week. If your contract is ending soon, get in touch now — locking in before these moves feed through to supplier pricing could save you money.
Gas jumps Friday as peace talks fail
Mixed signals this week - prices fell early on but shot up 4.7% Friday when US-Iran talks collapsed. If you're renewing soon, get quotes ready but don't rush. The warm weather is keeping a lid on prices for now.
💡 Friday's 4.7% price jump shows the market is still jumpy about Middle East tensions despite mild weather keeping demand low
📊 This Week vs Last Week
Both gas and power ended lower than last Friday despite Friday's jump
🔍 What Moved the Market
What Happened This Week
Gas ended at 78.49p, up 2% for the week but still down from last Friday's 80.77p. Power rose to £71.12, up 0.8% but down from last week's £72.49. The big story was Friday's 4.7% gas jump when peace talks between the US and Iran broke down with no deal.
The Full Story
Key Days
Mild weather and good supply kept pressure on prices
US-Iran talks collapsed with no deal, sparking supply route concerns
Forward Prices
The market expects prices to ease over time - 2027 contracts are 12% cheaper than today's rates. Even winter 2026/27 is only 3% higher despite seasonal demand. This suggests traders think current tensions and supply worries will fade, but winter heating demand will still push prices up seasonally.
When Should You Buy?
March contracts dropped 5.2% this week and are slightly cheaper than current spot prices. The market expects a small dip next month, but Friday's jump shows prices can move fast. Get quotes ready but no need to rush.
Spring prices fell 2.1% and sit just below current levels. The market expects mild relief but Norwegian maintenance starts in March. Worth getting quotes but the small discount suggests waiting might not save much.
Summer contracts are 2% below current prices and fell 1.8% this week. The market clearly expects lower demand and better supply in warmer months. You could wait for potentially better rates, but don't leave it too late if tensions escalate.
Winter prices are 3% above current rates, showing the market expects seasonal demand to bite. Even though they fell 1.6% this week, locking in now protects against winter price spikes. Worth securing quotes soon.
2027 rates are 12% below current prices and still falling. The market expects much lower prices once current tensions ease and supply normalises. Good value for longer-term planning but no rush to fix yet.
👀 Looking Ahead
Update (2 March): Since this report was written, the situation has escalated dramatically. The US and Israel launched military strikes on Iran over the weekend, killing Supreme Leader Khamenei and senior officials. Iran has retaliated with strikes across the region and moved to close the Strait of Hormuz — through which 20% of global oil and gas flows. Oil prices surged over 9% on Monday morning, with analysts warning of $90–100/barrel if shipping disruptions persist. UK wholesale gas and electricity prices are expected to move sharply higher when markets open. If your contract is ending soon, getting quotes now before these moves feed through to supplier pricing is strongly advised.
Beyond the geopolitical situation, keep an eye on Norwegian maintenance starting in March which will cut nearly 20mcm of supply. Weather forecasts are calling for colder temperatures from 7th March which could add further upward pressure if heating demand picks up.
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Current rates: Gas 78.49p/kWh · Power £71.12/MWh
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