UK Energy Market Update: 18th - 22nd August 2025
📌 Market Recap: Prices Before Bank Holiday
We’re reviewing the week before the bank holiday. Gas climbed steadily through the week (lowest on Monday, highest on Friday) but the weekly average was actually slightly lower than the previous week. Power eased overall after a sharp drop mid-week, then recovered into Friday.
📊 Weekly Market Snapshot
| Commodity | Weekly avg | Previous Week | % Change | Weekly High | Weekly Low |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gas (UK NBP) | 78.10 | 79.17 | 🔻 -1.35% | 82.70 (Fri) | 75.10 (Mon) |
| Power (UK Base) | 80.44 | 86.82 | 🔻 -7.35% | 84.29 (Mon) | 77.63 (Wed) |
Why this matters: These are wholesale prices (what suppliers pay before margins). They set the tone for quotes—but your contract is priced off the forward curve, not tomorrow’s delivery.
What's Driving Wholesale Energy Prices This Week?
Gas market (18–22 Aug)
- Less Norwegian gas (planned works) tightened short-term supply as the week progressed.
- Fewer LNG arrivals pencilled in for NW Europe added mild upward pressure.
- Storage still healthy (90%+), which is containing bigger spikes—but the day-to-day bias was upward.
Power market
- Lower wind output mid-week meant more gas-fired generation, lifting costs.
- Interconnector imports from France were steady and helped cap the downside.
- Carbon/coal costs ticked up a touch, nudging generation costs higher.
📉 6-Month Market Trend
Looking at the past six months of wholesale energy prices reveals important patterns:
Gas has mostly traded between 75–95p/therm, with short spikes above 100p. Today we’re sitting near the upper-middle of that band. That means gas is not at crisis levels, but higher than the summer lows seen in June/July.
Power has been much more volatile — dropping below £30/MWh during the August anomaly, but also spiking above £100/MWh. This volatility explains why supplier quotes can look inconsistent week to week.
Current positioning: Both fuels are in the middle of their 6-month ranges, not extreme highs or lows. In plain terms: this is a watch-and-decide moment — good opportunities exist, but forwards suggest suppliers may lift quotes quickly if volatility returns.
📈 5 Week Price Trend
| Week Ending | Average Gas (p/th) | Direction | Avg Power (£/MWh) | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/08/2025 | 78.10 | 🔻 | 80.44 | 🔻 |
| 15/08/2025 | 79.14 | 🔻 | 86.82 | 🔺 |
| 08/08/2025 | 79.63 | 🔻 | 54.82* | 🔻 |
| 01/08/2025 | 81.34 | 🔺 | 82.02 | 🔻 |
| 25/07/2025 | 80.32 | 🔻 | 84.09 | 🔺 |
*Power distorted by the 5 Aug anomaly (true trading range c. £54–£76/MWh).
👉 Avoid Overpaying on Your Next Renewal
👉 Forward markets are softening — but only for now.
A single geopolitical or supply shock could reverse gains quickly.
✅ Is now a good time to get prices?
- Renewal in 0–3 months: Sensible to get quotes now. With forwards up across the curve, waiting relies on a pullback.
- Renewal in 3–6 months: Benchmark now, monitor weekly. If forwards climb again, you’ll be glad you have a baseline.
- Renewal 6+ months: Low urgency, but set price alerts—winter premiums can creep in earlier than expected.
👉 Don’t leave it too late
If your term includes Winter 2025/26, the seasonal premium and last week’s forward rises can lift quotes quickly.
👀 If you’re not ready to sign yet—watch these
- LNG delivery schedule into NW Europe (more cargoes = relief).
- UK wind output (windier periods lower gas-fired generation).
- Geopolitics (any disruption risk can push Winter forwards quickly).
Want a heads-up when something changes?
🧠 Final thoughts
- Day-ahead prices finished the week higher than they started (especially gas), but weekly averages fell for both fuels vs the prior week.
- Forwards moved up across Winter 25 / Summer 26 / Winter 26—this is what’s feeding supplier quotes.
- If your renewal touches winter months, earlier action = better protection from seasonal premiums.
Need a firm price or a second opinion?
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