UK Energy Market Update: 11th - 15th August 2025
Gas Prices Fall, Power Returns to Recent Averages – What It Means for Renewals
Last week, wholesale energy markets stabilised after the extreme volatility seen at the start of August. Gas prices held within a narrow range, while power settled higher but still showed signs of underlying weakness.
For businesses with renewals approaching, this shift highlights the importance of looking beyond weekly averages and focusing on forward pricing.
📊 Weekly Market Snapshot
| Commodity | Weekly avg | Previous Week | % Change | Weekly High | Weekly Low |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gas (UK NBP) | 79.14 | 79.63 | 🔻 -0.61% | 80.60 (Tue) | 77.25 (Mon) |
| Power (UK Base) | 86.82 | 54.82* | 🔺 +58.4% | 89.63 (Wed/Thu) | 81.04 (Fri) |
*Previous week’s power average was skewed by the 5th August anomaly — not reflective of true contract pricing. Excluding that, the rise is less dramatic but still shows prices tracking higher.
What's Driving Wholesale Energy Prices This Week?
Gas Market Analysis
Norwegian supply recovery – Maintenance outages that disrupted flows earlier in the month are largely resolved, improving UK and European supply security.
LNG arrivals – Continued LNG imports into NW Europe helped ease concerns about storage levels.
Storage health – European gas storage remains well above 85% capacity, which is keeping a lid on price spikes.
Power Market Analysis
Gas-led movements – Power continues to track gas costs, with CCGT plants setting marginal prices.
Volatile trading – Early August’s sharp swings created nervousness in the market, but by last week prices steadied closer to long-term averages.
Renewables impact – Wind output was weaker than seasonal norms in the UK, forcing greater reliance on gas-fired generation.
📈 5 Week Price Trend
*Power average skewed by the 5th August anomaly — underlying range £54–76/MWh.
| Week Ending | Average Gas (p/th) | Direction | Avg Power (£/MWh) | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/08/2025 | 79.14 | 🔻 | 86.82 | 🔺 |
| 08/08/2025 | 79.63 | 🔻 | 54.82* | 🔻 |
| 01/08/2025 | 81.34 | 🔺 | 82.02 | 🔻 |
| 25/07/2025 | 80.32 | 🔻 | 84.09 | 🔺 |
| 18/07/2025 | 83.75 | 🔺 | 77.90 | 🔻 |
Commentary
- Gas: Over the last five weeks, gas prices have drifted slightly lower overall, moving from mid-£80s in mid-July to just above £79 last week. This reflects improved supply and healthy European storage.
- Power: Much more volatile. After spiking above £90 in early August, the anomaly dragged the following week’s average sharply down, before rebounding to £86.82 last week. This underlines how wholesale power remains highly sensitive to short-term shocks.
📉 6-Month Market Trend
Looking at the past six months of wholesale energy prices reveals important patterns:
- Gas: Prices remain locked in the £75–85 p/th band, showing stability despite wider volatility.
- Power: Huge swings in early August (£180/MWh spike) have calmed, but current averages (£86/MWh) remain higher than early-summer levels.
Overall: Both markets are moving closer to pre-spike ranges, but the risk of renewed volatility remains.
👉 Ready to Check Prices?
👉 Forward markets are softening — but only for now.
A single geopolitical or supply shock could reverse gains quickly.
💡 What This Means for Your Business
| Contract Renewal Timeline | Market-Based Action |
|---|---|
| Within 3 months | 🟢 Actively seek quotes now — power is back near forward pricing levels, and gas remains stable. Locking in avoids exposure to potential late-summer volatility. |
| In 3-6 months | 🟠 Monitor closely — forward contracts are softening, giving room for improved quotes if the trend continues. Review weekly, don’t rush. |
| 6+ months out | 🔵 Low urgency — Summer 2026 pricing looks cheaper, but keep watching forward curves. Early positioning may help if geopolitical risks trigger sharp rises later in the year. |
📅 Looking Ahead
- Weather impact – Forecasts show stronger UK wind output in the coming week, which could ease pressure on gas-fired power.
- Geopolitics – Global political meetings continue to influence sentiment, with any disruption to gas flows or shipping posing risks.
- Forward softness – If current easing in winter contracts continues, suppliers may begin repricing offers downward.
📝 Final Thoughts
This was a week of steady gas but rising power, with electricity pulling back from anomalies and finding balance closer to forward levels. While wholesale averages look stable, the key opportunity is in forward markets — which are beginning to soften after months of stubborn premiums.
👉 For businesses renewing in the next 3 months, this represents a genuine procurement window. Don’t wait for perfect conditions — prices can turn quickly.
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