Smart Energy Insights
Energy Insights
Thomas McGlynn • 28 July 2025
UK Energy Market Update: 14th –18th July 2025
Steady gas, volatile power — a mixed week for business energy buyers
π‘ Summary at a Glance
| Market | Weekly Avg | Previous Week | % Change | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gas (NBP) | 83.75 p/th | 81.22 p/th | πΊ +3.12% | Higher |
| Power (ELEC) | £84.09/MWh | £77.90/MWh | πΊ +7.95% | Higher |
π Prices rose across both markets this week —
bad news for those waiting to fix.
π
Power climbed nearly 8%, reversing the dip we saw the week before.
β‘ Day-Ahead Prices Breakdown
| π Date | β‘ Electricity (£/MWh) | π₯ Gas (p/th) |
|---|---|---|
| 15/07/2025 | 80.68 | 83.35 |
| 14/07/2025 | 85.08 | 81.50 |
| 13/07/2025 | 86.90 | 83.00 |
| 12/07/2025 | 89.89 | 84.90 |
| 11/07/2025 | 77.88 | 84.00 |
β οΈ No major pricing anomalies, but both gas and electricity rose steadily throughout the week.
π 5-Week Price Trend
| Week Ending | Avg Gas (p/th) | Avg Power (£/MWh) |
|---|---|---|
| 18/07/2025 | 83.75 | £84.09 |
| 11/07/2025 | 81.22 | £77.90 |
| 04/07/2025 | 78.05 | £82.98 |
| 27/06/2025 | 87.72 | £58.82 β οΈ |
| 20/06/2025 | 93.67 | £88.73 |
β Power is trending lower after June volatility — a positive sign.
β οΈ Gas has climbed 4% this week, reversing part of the recent softening.
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π What’s Driving the Market?
π’ Gas Market Drivers
- π§ Norwegian maintenance at Nyhamna, Kollsnes, and Troll facilities caused big supply dips — cutting over 90mcm/day on 16 July alone
- π³π΄ Flows to UK recovered by Friday, but the damage was already priced in.
- βοΈ Temperature forecasts adjusted slightly down, but cooling demand remained above normal.
- π¬ LNG sendout dipped — South Hook and Isle of Grain only supplied 9mcm/day by Friday
π Power Market Drivers
- π Nuclear outages remain high: Hartlepool 2 and Heysham 1-2 still offline. Torness Unit 1 will also drop offline from 19 July
- π¬οΈ Wind generation dropped midweek, leading to more gas-for-power demand.
- π Imports stable, but UK was still importing less via Belgium and the Netherlands compared to earlier in July.
- βοΈ Solar stayed strong, keeping peak pricing capped despite tight margins.
π 6–Month Energy Market Trends
The chart below shows how
day-ahead gas and power prices have moved since January.
Gas is still trending down from winter highs, butelectricity remains unstable, driven by generation and demand imbalances.
π‘ What This Means for Your Business
| Time Until Contract Ends | Fixed Contract Advice |
|---|---|
| 0–3 Months | β Act now – rates are rising and suppliers will be factoring that into new quotes. |
| 3–6 Months | βοΈ Monitor closely – you may catch a short-term dip, but don’t hold out too long. |
| 6–12 Months | π§ No action yet – but keep a close eye on trends. If pricing climbs further, early fixes could return. |
| 12+ Months | β³ No rush – use this period to plan your next steps. |
π What to Watch Next Week
ο»Ώ
- π§ Norwegian outage risk remains: Gassco expects repairs to finish by early week, but delays are possible.
- π¬ LNG arrivals due from Algeria, US, Nigeria and Russia — watch closely for delivery confirmations.
- βοΈ Hot weather and light winds will impact both gas demand and power prices.
- βοΈ Torness Unit 1 offline from 19 July – further strain on baseload supply.
π Next Steps
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π¬ Final Thoughts
This week was a turning point:
- πΊ Gas and power both moved higher — reversing early July's dip
- π§ Supply risks remain real, and heat is keeping demand elevated
- π Forward contract rates are also climbing — early action may avoid further hikes
ο»Ώ
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