UK Energy Market: Gas & Power Rise as Winter Nears (10 Oct 2025)

🔥

Weekly Avg Gas (w/c 06 Oct)

81.39p

▲ 7.11%

was 75.99p last week

⚡

Weekly Avg Power (w/c 06 Oct)

£84.11

▲ 7.76%

was £78.05 last week

THIS WEEK'S SIGNAL

🔺 FIRMER MARKET

Day-ahead averages rose: gas 81.39p(+7.11% w/w) and power £84.11(+7.76% w/w). Week opened soft (Mon gas 70.66, power £68.88) but firmed mid-week; Friday closed elevated (gas 82.50, power £87.00).

💡

What This Means

Forwards edged higher (see below). If you’re renewing before spring, expect quotes to track this week’s uptick.

Markets turned higher this week. Day-ahead gas averaged 81.39p/th and power £84.11/MWh. Lows on Monday (gas 70.66, power £68.88) gave way to mid-week strength (Wed power £91.73), with Friday holding firm (gas 82.50, power £87.00). Suppliers price off the forward curve, which nudged up across key winter strips rather than spiking.

📊 Weekly Market Snapshot (Day-Ahead)

Averages: Gas 81.39p/th Averages: Power £84.11/MWh Gas High/Low: 85.85 / 70.66 Power High/Low: £91.73 / £68.88

Date	Gas (p/th)	Δ vs prior day	Power (£/MWh)	Δ vs prior day
Mon 06/10	70.66	—	68.88	—
Tue 07/10	85.00	▲ 14.34	87.55	▲ 18.67
Wed 08/10	85.85	▲ 0.85	91.73	▲ 4.18
Thu 09/10	82.95	▼ 2.90	85.40	▼ 6.33
Fri 10/10	82.50	▼ 0.45	87.00	▲ 1.60

Mon 06/10 —

Gas 70.66 p/th

Power £68.88 /MWh

Tue 07/10 ▲

Gas 85.00 p/th

Power £87.55 /MWh

Wed 08/10 ▲

Gas 85.85 p/th

Power £91.73 /MWh

Thu 09/10 ▼

Gas 82.95 p/th

Power £85.40 /MWh

Fri 10/10 ▼

Gas 82.50 p/th

Power £87.00 /MWh

💡 Remember: Day-ahead moves are short-term signals. Supplier quotes are based on forwards (below).

📈 5 Week Price Trend

Week Ending	Average Gas (p/th)	Direction	Avg Power (£/MWh)	Direction
10/10/2025	81.39	▲	84.11	▲
03/10/2025	75.99	▼	78.05	▼
26/09/2025	79.55	▲	84.00	▲
19/09/2025	79.06	▼	54.41*	▼
12/09/2025	79.55	▲	67.15*	▼

📌 *Power contained anomalous prints these weeks and didn't reflect real contract levels.

⚡ What’s Driving Prices?

LNG & Norwegian Supply Tightness

Gas prices climbed as Norwegian maintenance and slower LNG arrivals reduced short-term flexibility. Flows recovered midweek, but the market stayed cautious heading into colder weather.

Supply-driven firmness

Power Tracking Gas Higher

Power mirrored gas gains through the week. Low wind output early on, combined with steady gas-fired generation, supported higher day-ahead and forward pricing across winter contracts.

Low wind → higher gas burn

Seasonal Outlook

Weather remains the key swing factor. Forecasts suggest cooler, settled conditions mid-October. If that holds, heating demand could rise earlier than normal and keep Q4 contracts supported.

Winter sensitivity

📈 Forward Market Pricing — what suppliers actually watch

Week-on-week change compared to Friday 03/10/2025.

🔥 Gas (p/th)

Product	Price	WoW %
Nov-25	82.97	▲ 3.38%
Dec-25	84.79	▲ 1.88%
Q1-26	85.45	▲ 1.73%
Summer-26	77.34	▲ 1.06%
Cal-26	80.95	▲ 1.17%

⚡ Power (£/MWh)

Product	Price	WoW %
Nov-25	83.31	▲ 3.45%
Dec-25	81.30	▲ 1.65%
Q1-26	84.54	▲ 1.78%
Cal-26	77.11	▲ 0.61%

📖 Understanding This Week’s Price Movement

Why did forwards rise while day-ahead also strengthened?

After last week’s dip, both day-ahead and forward markets moved higher. Gas averaged 81.39p/th and power £84.11/MWh — up roughly 7% week-on-week. Forwards followed, with winter 25–26 contracts adding 1–3% as traders priced in tighter supply and cooler weather risks.

What this means:

Forwards are reflecting renewed demand and early signs of winter heating season risk — not short-term volatility alone.
Day-ahead and forwards moved in tandem, signalling more durable market support compared with last week’s softness.
Later-dated products(e.g. Cal-26 gas at 80.95p/th) remain well above spot, suggesting confidence in medium-term strength.
Renewal strategy: prices are still reasonable compared to September highs — but the downward window has closed for now.

Bottom line: this week’s steady gains show how quickly markets can shift. For near-term renewals, it’s a reminder that short dips don’t last long when winter risk returns.

🔍 What the Chart Shows

The past six months reveal how gas and power prices have bounced within a tight band — rising into early summer, easing in September, and edging higher again as autumn demand builds.

Gas: After dipping in late September, day-ahead prices have lifted to around 81 p/th, still about 10% below June peaks.
Power: More volatile than gas, with short-term spikes from variable wind output and cooler mornings now pushing prices back above £80/MWh.
Overall: The six-month trend remains broadly sideways — supply conditions are steady, but seasonal risk is creeping back as winter approaches.

In summary: Prices have rebounded slightly but remain within a manageable range. Businesses fixing soon can still capture value before winter volatility fully returns.

🔍 What the Chart Shows

The last six months highlight how day-ahead and forward wholesale prices have fluctuated across key seasonal periods. Current levels sit near the lower end of the range seen since spring.

Gas: Prices softened through early autumn, now roughly 10–15% below mid-summer highs.
Power: Mirrored gas but with sharper intraday swings, driven by wind generation and short-term demand shifts.
Overall: Market sentiment remains cautious — stable storage and mild weather have limited upside, but any cold snap could reverse the trend quickly.

In summary: This week’s price action sits within a wider six-month downtrend, suggesting current rates still offer relative value for businesses fixing ahead of winter.

⚡ Is Now a Good Time to Get Prices?

Important: Advice based on the market data up to 10th October 2025

Benchmark urgently. With gas at 81.39p/th and power at £84.11/MWh, both up slightly this week, winter forwards are rising again. Delaying further could mean locking in higher seasonal rates.

You’re in the final renewal window — secure quotes while prices remain moderate before peak winter demand.

Get Your Quote Now

Review this month. Q1-26 is trading around 85.45p/th (gas) and £84.54/MWh (power) — both about 1–2% higher week-on-week. Still a reasonable entry point, but the softer window from early October has closed.

Fixing soon avoids the usual pre-winter volatility and captures manageable rates before supplier risk premiums rise.

Get Your Quote Now

Monitor monthly. Summer-26 sits near 77.34p/th (gas) and £72.30/MWh (power), up slightly from last week. These levels remain stable and good for planning ahead.

No urgency yet — just keep watching the forward curve for any sharp upward shift as we move into winter.

Get Your Quote Now

Track quarterly. Cal-26 and Cal-27 remain in a narrow range near 80.95p/th and £77.11/MWh. No immediate action required — ideal to monitor into early 2026 for clearer direction.

Subscribe to our weekly updates to stay ahead of shifts in longer-term pricing and seasonal trends.

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🔭 What to Watch Next

Norway flows & maintenance: extensions or extra outages (e.g. Langeled) can lift prices quickly.
Wind forecasts (7–10 days): calm spells usually mean more gas-fired power and higher costs.
LNG arrivals & send-out: strong berthings and terminal output help keep supply steady.
Storage behaviour: early withdrawals or slower injections hint at tighter winter risk.
Interconnectors: UK–EU gas/power flows — constraints or strong exports can push prices up.
Carbon & oil: higher EUA carbon or Brent prices often add cost pressure to generation.
Geopolitics: tensions in Ukraine or the Middle East can quickly impact sentiment.

❓ FAQs on This Week’s Market

🔹 Why did prices rise this week? ▶

Cooler October weather, patchy wind output and slightly slower LNG arrivals nudged demand higher. Gas set the tone; power followed as gas-fired generation ran more.

🔹 Did renewal quotes change much? ▶

Yes, but only modestly. Forwards — which suppliers use for quotes — were up around 1–3% across winter products, so quotes edged higher rather than spiking.

🔹 Should I fix now or wait? ▶

If your contract ends Oct–Mar, get prices this week and be ready to move — winter risk tends to lift rates quickly. For Apr–Jun 2026 and beyond, monitor monthly and use dips to lock in.

🔹 What could push prices back down? ▶

Milder weather, stronger wind output, and busy LNG schedules would ease demand on gas-fired generation. Stable Norwegian flows and calmer geopolitics would also remove some risk premium.

💬 Final Thoughts

After several weeks of easing, wholesale prices moved back up modestly — gas and power both rose around 1–3% as markets priced in cooler weather and tighter supply expectations.

While this doesn’t mark a major reversal, it does show how quickly sentiment can shift when temperatures fall or LNG arrivals slow. Short-term softness can disappear fast once winter trading begins in earnest.

If your renewal is due before spring, it’s worth getting updated prices soon. For longer-dated contracts, keep monitoring but stay ready — these gradual rises can build into sharper swings.

Key takeaway: Markets have steadied but the easy weeks are likely behind us. A small move higher now could become the start of a wider winter trend — proactive action still beats waiting for volatility to return.

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UK Energy Market Update: 6th - 10th October 2025

📊 Weekly Market Snapshot (Day-Ahead)

📈 5 Week Price Trend

⚡ What’s Driving Prices?

📈 Forward Market Pricing — what suppliers actually watch

🔥 Gas (p/th)

⚡ Power (£/MWh)

📊 Forward Trend Snapshot

📖 Understanding This Week’s Price Movement

Why did forwards rise while day-ahead also strengthened?

What this means:

🔍 What the Chart Shows

🔍 What the Chart Shows

⚡ Is Now a Good Time to Get Prices?

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🔭 What to Watch Next

❓ FAQs on This Week’s Market

💬 Final Thoughts

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