The week opened with a sharp spike: Monday's Middle East tensions (Israeli air strikes on Iran, Iranian missile launches, US helicopter shot down) sent gas soaring to 123.74p and power climbing in lockstep. Norwegian supply tightness—Troll compressor failure cutting 30 mcm/d—kept prices elevated through Wednesday. By mid-week, gas had settled around 120p and power near £104/MWh, with traders pricing in a sustained geopolitical risk premium and tighter European fundamentals.

The reversal came Friday morning. The US signalled it would not pursue further military escalation in the Middle East, triggering a rapid unwinding of the risk premium. Simultaneously, forecasts shifted sharply towards stronger wind generation across the UK and Northwest Europe from Friday onwards. This combination—reduced geopolitical fear and improved renewable outlook—hit near-term gas and power hard. Gas fell 6.8% in a single day to close at 111.68p, and power followed lower. The front end of the curve bore the brunt; longer-dated contracts held up better, reflecting lingering uncertainty around Middle East energy infrastructure and LNG supply routes.

Over the full 30 days, gas remains up 5.3% and power up 6.8%, so the longer-term trend is still rising. However, this week's closing momentum is decidedly downward, and the market's mood has shifted from 'geopolitical risk premium' to 'improving renewables and easing tensions'. For someone renewing in the next 6 months, Friday's move is material—it suggests the recent rally may be topping out. For those with 12–18 months to run, the 30-day uptrend is still the dominant signal, but next week's data will be crucial to confirm whether prices are stabilising or continuing to ease.