Weekly Energy Market Report: 29th June -3rd July 2026
Norwegian outages push gas up, but 30-day trend still favours buyers
Gas jumped 8.3% to 104.51p/therm and power rose 7.2% to £94.37/MWh this week, driven by Norwegian pipeline maintenance cutting 12 mcm/d of supply and geopolitical risk in the Middle East. Over 30 days, though, gas is still down 9.2% and power down 4.6%, signalling the market expects easier conditions once Oseberg maintenance ends on 8 July.
Should you act this week?
Gas and power both rose this week (+8.3% and +7.2%), but both remain down over 30 days (gas -9.2%, power -4.6%), so the underlying trend is still easing—watch for Norwegian maintenance to end on 8 July before committing to a long-term contract.
What happened this week
Gas prices climbed steadily across the week, rising 8.3% from 99.02p to 104.51p/therm by Friday, with power following suit at +7.2% to £94.37/MWh. The week's story was one of tightening supply: Norwegian Oseberg field maintenance removed ~12 mcm/d of production, cutting UK imports by ~6 mcm/d, whilst geopolitical tensions in the Middle East—US-Iran clashes, shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz—added a risk premium to LNG markets. Early-week weakness in European renewables (high pressure, low wind) also supported power prices. By mid-week, however, renewable output improved sharply (wind picked up across Northwestern Europe, French nuclear capacity rose towards 44 GW), which eased power pressure and triggered some profit-taking in gas by Friday.
The drivers were supply-side tightness and geopolitical anxiety. Norwegian maintenance is the immediate culprit, but it's temporary—it ends on 8 July. Behind that sits a tighter structural picture: QatarEnergy's extended force majeure, European storage at five-year lows (49% full), and competition from Asian LNG demand and Egyptian imports pulling cargoes away from Europe. The Middle East risk premium is real but so far unproven—no actual disruption to flows has occurred. Gas prices are being held up by these near-term constraints, but the market's forward curve tells a different story: Cal-27 is priced at 86.71p (down 6.7% over 30 days) and Cal-28 at 69.26p (down 3.8%), suggesting traders expect easier conditions once summer maintenance ends and winter demand recedes.
Over 30 days, gas is down 9.2% and power down 4.6%—a meaningful easing trend that outweighs this week's rally. The forward curve is backwardated (near-term prices higher than winter), which is typical for summer and reflects the temporary nature of current supply tightness. For anyone renewing in the next 6 months, this week's spike is notable but the 30-day downtrend is the real signal: prices are trending easier, and the Oseberg maintenance ending on 8 July is a clear catalyst to watch. Longer-dated contracts (Cal-27, Cal-28) show the market pricing in a return to more normal conditions by autumn and winter.
Norwegian Oseberg maintenance
Maintenance from late June through 8 July is removing ~12 mcm/d of production, cutting UK imports from Norway by ~6 mcm/d to 57 mcm/d and tightening near-term supply.
Geopolitical risk (Middle East)
Escalating US-Iran tensions and shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz are adding a risk premium to LNG routes, though direct gas supply disruption has not yet materialised.
Global LNG competition
Asian demand and record Egyptian imports are pulling US LNG cargoes away from Europe for the first time in two years, tightening European availability.
European renewable weakness (early week)
High-pressure system brought below-average wind and limited rainfall early in the week, supporting power; conditions improved by mid-week, easing pressure.
QatarEnergy force majeure extension
Force majeure declaration extended into September, pushing restart expectations further out and reinforcing supply-side tightness across European gas storage at 49% full.
Wholesale prices
Wholesale rates at week-end close — your business rate sits above these. Settlement: 2 Jul 2026.
| Contract | p/therm | Week | 30d |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug-26 | 104.51 | +8.3 | -9.2 |
| Sep-26 | 106.00 | +7.8 | -8.6 |
| Oct-26 | 106.97 | +7.7 | — |
| Q4-26 | 109.73 | +7.0 | -7.7 |
| Q1-27 | 107.84 | +6.2 | -6.8 |
| Q2-27 | 81.74 | +1.6 | — |
| Win-26 | 108.80 | +6.6 | -7.3 |
| Sum-27 | 79.39 | +1.1 | -6.9 |
| Win-27 | 81.17 | +0.4 | -6.3 |
| Sum-28 | 62.73 | -0.0 | -3.5 |
| Cal-27 | 86.71 | +2.5 | -6.7 |
| Cal-28 | 69.26 | +0.1 | -3.8 |
| Cal-29 | 63.05 | +0.2 | -2.6 |
| Contract | £/MWh | Week | 30d |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug-26 | 94.37 | +7.2 | -4.6 |
| Sep-26 | 94.96 | +5.9 | -6.4 |
| Oct-26 | 93.30 | +0.7 | — |
| Q4-26 | 99.12 | +4.3 | -4.6 |
| Q1-27 | 97.27 | +4.5 | -3.0 |
| Q2-27 | 76.62 | +1.3 | — |
| Win-26 | 98.21 | +4.4 | -3.8 |
| Sum-27 | 75.21 | +0.4 | -3.7 |
| Win-27 | 77.88 | -0.7 | -2.6 |
| Cal-27 | 80.78 | +1.3 | -4.0 |
| Cal-28 | 67.51 | -0.4 | -0.6 |
| Cal-29 | 65.07 | -0.3 | -0.4 |
How the week moved
What to do about your contract
For energy buyers — forward curve shape & look-ahead
Forward curve shape: The gas curve is backwardated: Aug-26 at 104.51p falls to Cal-27 at 86.71p and Cal-28 at 69.26p, signalling the market expects near-term tightness to ease significantly by autumn and winter. Power shows a similar shape, with prompt at £94.37/MWh easing to Cal-27 at £80.78 and Cal-28 at £67.51, reflecting expectations that improved renewable output and normal seasonal demand will ease pressure once summer maintenance ends.
Look ahead: The critical date is 8 July, when Oseberg maintenance is scheduled to end and Norwegian exports should normalise. Watch for any extension announcements—if maintenance runs longer, expect prices to hold firm. Monitor the US-Iran negotiations; the next round is after this weekend, and any escalation in Middle East tensions could add a fresh geopolitical premium. Finally, track European storage levels and French nuclear availability; if either deteriorates unexpectedly, it could underpin prices longer than the curve currently expects.
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