The week began with gas prices firmer—up to 102.60p on Monday—as fresh Middle East tensions (postponed US-Iran talks and Israel-Hezbollah clashes) and a Qatar LNG facility explosion spooked traders. By Tuesday, however, the mood flipped. US and Iranian officials met in Geneva over the weekend and agreed a framework for their memorandum of understanding; mine clearing in the Strait of Hormuz progressed steadily; and the Qatar incident proved benign (only a domestic facility affected, no LNG export hit). Prices fell sharply, and by Friday's close had drifted to 96.60p—the week's low—as traders systematically unwound the geopolitical premium.

The primary driver was the collapse of near-term geopolitical risk. Once talks showed signs of progress and the Strait reopened, the market no longer needed to price in a Hormuz disruption scenario. A secondary but equally relentless force was warm weather: forecasts across the UK and Europe pointed to temperatures 10+ degrees above normal, suppressing heating demand and driving exceptional solar output. This combination—easing supply fears and falling demand—created a sustained downward bias. Power prices, which had initially tracked gas upwards on Monday, soon decoupled; the heatwave lifted air-conditioning demand and created nuclear cooling concerns, but these were overwhelmed by the solar surge and the weakness in gas-fired generation costs.

Over 30 days, gas is down 18.1% and power down 10.1%—a genuine easing, not a blip. The forward curve reflects this: Cal-27 gas sits at 84.59p (down 9.9% in 30 days), and Cal-28 at 69.22p (down 3.7%). For anyone renewing in the next 6 months, these are attractive levels; for those 12–18 months out, the picture is more mixed, as the curve suggests the market expects some recovery into autumn and winter. Beyond 18 months, the downtrend flattens, signalling that traders see 2027–28 as a return to more normal pricing.