Gas up 22% as Middle East conflict tightens supplies
Gas closed the week at 111.96p — up 22.6% on last Friday's 91.34p — with power following to £93.22, up 16.6%. The week's 5-week range runs from 83.28p to 137.86p, and current prices sit 15.2% above the recent average.
Gas jumped 22.6% this week and is now 15% above its 5-week average — if you're renewing in the next 6 months, get quotes before prices climb further.
What Happened This Week
It was a week that started tense and finished sharply higher. Monday opened with gas already under pressure as Middle East supply concerns pushed Brent oil to $106.60/bbl, with vessel seizures in the region and a US-Iran standoff keeping traders on edge. Prices dipped slightly on Tuesday and Wednesday as warmer European temperatures reduced heating demand and stronger wind generation took some heat out of the market — but the calm didn't last. Wednesday afternoon saw a hard reversal when US reports suggested President Trump would reject any Iranian peace proposal, and reports of US military briefings added further alarm. Thursday brought the May-26 contract expiry, and by Friday the June-26 contract had taken over as front month — closing the week at 111.96p for gas and £93.22 for power.
The drivers pulling prices up are almost entirely on the supply side. Norwegian maintenance disruptions took flows below normal for much of the week, with a further 150mcm/day expected offline by end of May. Gas demand for power generation has been running higher than usual as wind output drops off heading into next week. And with the Strait of Hormuz still blocked to shipping, oil markets are keeping the longer-dated curves elevated. Thursday did see a brief dip as Iran signalled willingness to work with neighbours on reopening the Strait — but that optimism faded quickly, and prices closed the week well up.
Without 30-day front-month data available this week, the clearest longer-dated signal comes from the forward curve itself. CAL27 gas has fallen 15.3% over 30 days to 93.50p, and WIN26 is down 17.6% to 115.30p — meaning the market, despite this week's jump, is still pricing longer-dated contracts cheaper than they were a month ago. That's a useful signal: short-term prices are being pushed around by geopolitical noise, but the forward market expects some easing further out. If you're renewing soon, today's rates are high by recent standards and the direction of travel this week is firmly upward — so waiting is a gamble.
What Moved the Market
Where Prices Are Right Now
Wholesale rates at week-end close. Your business rate will be higher.
| Contract | Price | Week | 30d |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun-26 | 112.88p | +3.2% | -16.6% |
| Jul-26 | 111.74p | +3.6% | N/A |
| Aug-26 | 111.96p | — | N/A |
| Q3-26 | 112.24p | +3.5% | -16.9% |
| Q4-26 | 115.34p | +3.6% | -17.6% |
| Q1-27 | 115.26p | +4.0% | N/A |
| Win-26 | 115.30p | +3.8% | -17.6% |
| Sum-27 | 86.36p | +1.6% | -15.0% |
| Win-27 | 87.29p | +1.4% | -13.0% |
| Sum-28 | 65.18p | -0.2% | N/A |
| Cal-27 | 93.50p | +2.4% | -15.3% |
| Cal-28 | 72.11p | +0.5% | -8.3% |
| Cal-29 | 64.85p | +1.4% | -2.8% |
| Contract | Price | Week | 30d |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun-26 | £93.12 | +1.5% | -9.5% |
| Jul-26 | £93.10 | +2.0% | N/A |
| Aug-26 | £93.22 | — | N/A |
| Q3-26 | £93.45 | +1.8% | -8.4% |
| Q4-26 | £97.32 | +3.3% | -7.0% |
| Q1-27 | £97.36 | +3.8% | N/A |
| Win-26 | £97.34 | +3.6% | -8.5% |
| Sum-27 | £75.31 | +1.9% | -4.9% |
| Win-27 | £78.44 | +0.3% | N/A |
| Cal-27 | £81.60 | +2.1% | -6.6% |
| Cal-28 | £67.41 | +0.9% | -4.4% |
| Cal-29 | £65.19 | +0.3% | -2.6% |
What To Do About Your Contract
Gas is up 22.6% just this week and the near-term drivers — Norwegian outages, colder weather next week, Middle East uncertainty — are all pointing the same way. Summer and Q3 contracts are still cheaper than they were 30 days ago, but that gap is closing fast. Get quotes now while there's still some breathing room.
CAL27 gas has actually dropped 15.3% over the past 30 days to 93.50p, and power is down 6.6% to £81.60 — so despite this week's noise, the 12-18 month market has been easing. You're not under immediate pressure, but the Middle East situation could push these up quickly. Keep a close eye and be ready to move if CAL27 gas breaks back above 100p.
CAL28 and CAL29 gas are both cheaper than they were 30 days ago, and at 72p and 65p they're well below today's front-month rate of nearly 112p. The market is telling you it expects prices to ease significantly by 2028. Weekly moves at this horizon are largely noise — sit tight and revisit in a few months unless the geopolitical picture changes dramatically.
📈 For energy buyers — full forward curve, Sum-27, look-ahead
Sum-27 gas at 86.36p (+1.6% this week, -15.0% over 30 days) and Sum-27 power at £75.31 (+1.9%/wk, -4.9%/30d). Sum-27 sits beyond the immediate near-term volatility window so it tracks differently from the front month.
Forward curve shape: The curve drops sharply from today's 111.96p front month down to 93.50p for CAL27, 72.11p for CAL28 and 64.85p for CAL29 — the market is pricing in a meaningful fall in gas prices over the next two to three years, most likely assuming some resolution of Middle East supply disruptions and a return to more normal Norwegian flows.
Look ahead: The key things to watch next week: whether the US-Iran back-channel talks make any progress on reopening the Strait of Hormuz (any positive news could knock near-term prices back sharply), the scale of Norwegian maintenance as the 150mcm/day offline figure approaches end of May, and UK temperature outturns — forecasts show below-seasonal-normal temperatures after the bank holiday, which will push gas demand for heating back up and keep the front of the power curve supported.
Where The Market Is Today —
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Source: ICE Endex / SEFE daily reports · Smart Energy Company — Independent energy broker since 2014
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