Gas up 9.7% as Middle East ceasefire unravels
Gas rose from 83.28p to 91.34p this week (+9.7%) and power climbed from £76.10 to £79.94 (+5.0%) as renewed conflict in the Middle East drove prices up every day. Despite the weekly jump, gas is still 20.5% cheaper than 30 days ago — so the medium-term picture remains favourable for anyone looking to lock in.
Gas is up 9.7% this week as Middle East tensions keep escalating, but prices are still 20.5% below where they were 30 days ago — if you're renewing in 2026, now is a good window to get quotes before that gap closes.
What Happened This Week
Prices climbed every single day this week, with gas rising from 83.28p on Monday to 91.34p by Friday — a 9.7% move in five sessions. The week opened with markets already reacting to a dramatic weekend: Iran had reopened the Strait of Hormuz briefly then closed it again, reversing the sell-off that happened at the end of the previous week. From there, each day brought a new twist — a temporary ceasefire extension on Wednesday gave markets a brief breather, but by Thursday the 22 April deadline had passed without a deal, Iran had seized two cargo ships, and the NBP front month was back above 110p/therm. Friday closed with Brent oil at $106.60/bbl and no clear resolution in sight.
The geopolitical story was the dominant driver, but it wasn't the only one pushing prices up. Wind generation was weak all week — speeds running 4–5 m/s below seasonal normal — which meant more gas was being burned for power generation, adding extra demand onto an already tighter system. A 93mcm outage at Norway's Troll field on Tuesday added a further short-term supply squeeze, and the delayed return of the Heysham 2 nuclear plant (now expected 27 April) kept power generation margins tight. LNG send-out is also waning as the gas summer injection season begins, and current injection rates point to a tighter-than-usual winter 2026/27.
The important context is the 30-day picture. A month ago, gas was trading at 114.93p and power at £89.51 — both considerably higher than today's 91.34p and £79.94. This week's rises feel alarming, but they've only clawed back a fraction of last month's falls. Someone looking to renew a contract starting in the next few months is still seeing prices that are 20% below recent highs. The risk is that the Middle East situation keeps feeding further rises — Brent oil climbing from $86 to $107 in a single week shows how quickly that can happen. Prices are heading up again, but they're not yet back to where they were.
What Moved the Market
Where Prices Are Right Now
Wholesale rates at week-end close. Your business rate will be higher.
| Contract | Price | Week | 30d |
|---|---|---|---|
| May-26 | 110.89p | +4.3% | -26.3% |
| Jun-26 | 109.33p | +4.7% | -26.0% |
| Jul-26 | 107.83p | +4.8% | N/A |
| Q3-26 | 108.45p | +4.6% | -26.1% |
| Q4-26 | 111.31p | +3.7% | -25.3% |
| Q1-27 | 110.78p | +3.8% | N/A |
| Win-26 | 111.05p | — | -25.0% |
| Sum-27 | 85.01p | +3.2% | -19.1% |
| Win-27 | 86.12p | +3.9% | -17.2% |
| Sum-28 | 65.29p | +2.0% | N/A |
| Cal-27 | 91.34p | +3.5% | -20.5% |
| Cal-28 | 71.76p | +2.5% | -10.8% |
| Cal-29 | 63.97p | -1.8% | -4.9% |
| Contract | Price | Week | 30d |
|---|---|---|---|
| May-26 | £89.14 | +2.2% | -15.9% |
| Jun-26 | £91.70 | +1.6% | -12.8% |
| Jul-26 | £91.30 | +2.9% | N/A |
| Q3-26 | £91.79 | +2.8% | -13.3% |
| Q4-26 | £94.17 | +1.9% | -11.8% |
| Q1-27 | £93.84 | +1.8% | N/A |
| Win-26 | £94.00 | — | -14.0% |
| Sum-27 | £73.87 | +1.9% | -7.7% |
| Win-27 | £78.18 | +2.2% | N/A |
| Cal-27 | £79.94 | +1.9% | -10.7% |
| Cal-28 | £66.78 | +0.7% | -6.2% |
| Cal-29 | £64.99 | -0.8% | -3.3% |
What To Do About Your Contract
Near-term rates (May–July 2026) are 26% cheaper for gas and 16% cheaper for power than they were 30 days ago. This week's rises show the market can turn quickly though — gas jumped 9.7% in five days. Get quotes now and lock something in while prices are still well below last month's levels.
Cal-27 prices are down 20.5% on gas and 10.7% on power over the past 30 days — a decent improvement. But you've got time, and this week's Middle East escalation shows conditions can shift fast. Watch how the ceasefire talks develop over the next few weeks before committing.
Cal-28 and Cal-29 contracts are only modestly cheaper than a month ago (gas down 10.8%, power down 6.2%), and at this horizon the day-to-day noise matters far less. The market expects prices to ease considerably by 2028 — Cal-28 gas at 71.76p is well below today's front-month. No need to act now; keep an eye on the broader geopolitical picture over the coming months.
📈 For energy buyers — full forward curve, Sum-27, look-ahead
Sum-27 gas at 85.01p (+3.2% this week, -19.1% over 30 days) and Sum-27 power at £73.87 (+1.9%/wk, -7.7%/30d). Sum-27 sits beyond the immediate near-term volatility window so it tracks differently from the front month.
Forward curve shape: The curve is telling a clear story: near-term prices (Q3/Q4 2026) are sitting around 108–111p for gas and £92–94 for power, but by Cal-28 that drops to 71.76p and £66.78 — suggesting the market expects the current Middle East premium to fade and supply to ease over the next two years.
Look ahead: The key thing to watch next week is whether Iran and the US move any closer to a deal — further vessel seizures or an escalation in the Hormuz situation could push gas above 100p quickly. On the supply side, watch Norwegian flows for any further Troll maintenance, and keep an eye on Heysham 2's return to full capacity on 27 April. Wind generation is expected to remain below seasonal normal through the weekend, so any colder-than-forecast temperatures could add further upward pressure on near-term prices.
Where The Market Is Today —
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Source: ICE Endex / SEFE daily reports · Smart Energy Company — Independent energy broker since 2014
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