June told a story of geopolitical whiplash. Gas opened at 110.79p on the back of Middle East tensions, climbed to a month-high of 120.53p by 8 June as Iran struck Israel and traders priced in supply risk, then fell sharply to 96.52p by 26 June as US–Iran ceasefire talks progressed and the Strait of Hormuz gradually reopened. The final four days saw gas bounce back to 102.61p as fresh hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah reignited concerns. Power followed a gentler arc—opening at £99.18, dipping to £90.16 mid-month as gas eased and renewables strengthened, then recovering to £98.16 as late-month wind weakness and nuclear constraints tightened the generation picture. The month's average prices—108.16p for gas and £97.54 for power—were down 6.1% and 0.2% respectively from May, but the trajectory within the month was far from linear.

The drivers were familiar but volatile. Geopolitical risk dominated the first half: Israeli strikes on Iran, Iranian missile launches, and uncertainty over the Strait of Hormuz kept a premium in the market until mid-June, when US and Iranian officials announced a framework agreement and began clearing mines from the shipping route. Norwegian supply tightened the picture mid-month—a compressor failure at Troll reduced flows by ~30 mcm/d—but recovery late month eased that pressure. Weather swung from early-month heatwave (suppressing heating demand, boosting solar) to late-month high-pressure system (weakening wind, supporting thermal generation). European storage remained tight at 41–43%, the lowest for the season in five years, which kept underlying support for prices despite the geopolitical easing. Carbon prices climbed to €80/t, increasing the cost of thermal generation and supporting power. French nuclear faced cooling-water constraints from mid-month as temperatures rose, further tightening the generation picture.

For someone renewing now, the key takeaway is that the 30-day downtrend (gas -9.5%, power -2.3%) is real but fragile. Prices fell through most of June as geopolitical risk eased and LNG flows improved, but the final week's bounce—gas +2.7%, power +5.8%—signals that the easing may be running out of steam. The forward curve reflects this: near-term (Q3–Q4 2026) prices are holding around 103–107p for gas and £95–98 for power, but the curve flattens and then falls sharply into 2027–28 (Cal-27 gas at 86.29p, Cal-28 at 69.67p), suggesting the market expects the geopolitical premium to unwind and supply to normalise. If you're renewing in the next six months, the recent dip is attractive but the month-end bounce is a warning—get quotes now if you can lock in the lower levels, but don't panic if you miss it. For 12–18 months out, the forward curve is your guide: it's pricing in a material easing, so there's no rush. For 2+ years out, the curve is so far downtrend that any near-term move is noise.