UK Energy Market Update: 28th July –1st August 2025
Thomas McGlynn • 4 August 2025
Gas ticks up, electricity slides — a conflicting week for contract timing decisions.
💡 Summary at a Glance
| Market | Weekly Avg | Previous Week | % Change | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gas (NBP) | 81.34p/th | 80.32p/th | ▲ 1.27% | 🔺 Up |
| Power (ELEC) | £81.51/MWh | £82.02/MWh | ▼ 0.62% | 🔻 Down |
📈 Gas: Prices continued to climb slightly, with most sessions holding above 81p.
⚡ Power: Volatility persisted but the overall average dipped after early-week highs.
⚡ Day-Ahead Prices Breakdown
| 📆 Date | ⚡ Electricity (£/MWh) | 🔥 Gas (p/th) |
|---|---|---|
| 01/08/2025 | 83.00 | 75.23 |
| 31/07/2025 | 83.00 | 83.00 |
| 30/07/2025 | 82.65 | 84.45 |
| 29/07/2025 | 79.50 | 82.81 |
| 28/07/2025 | 78.55 | 82.04 |
🧮 After last week’s volatility, this week saw a gentler overall upward trend — especially on gas, with electricity retreating from its recent highs.
📅 5-Week Price Trend
| Week Ending | Avg Gas (p/th) | Avg Power (£/MWh) |
|---|---|---|
| 01/08/2025 | 81.34 | £81.51 |
| 25/07/2025 | 80.32 | £82.02 |
| 18/07/2025 | 83.75 | £84.09 |
| 11/07/2025 | 81.22 | £77.90 |
| 04/07/2025 | 78.05 | £82.98 |
📉 Gas: Trending upward but still well below mid-July levels.
📉Power: Pulling back after a sharp spike in early July.
📩 Ready to Check Prices?
👉 Prices have dipped — but that doesn't always last.
Now could be a smart window to explore options without pressure.
🧭 What’s Driving the Market?
🛢️ Gas Market Drivers
- Norwegian outages: Ongoing capacity restrictions maintained firm prices.
- Storage: European reserves remain high, but exports and forecasts are now under scrutiny.
- LNG arrivals: Consistent, but weaker than spring levels, keeping risk premiums active.
⚡ Power Market Drivers
- Reduced wind generation: Especially midweek, lifted peak pricing.
- Demand variation: End-of-month consumption fell slightly, helping ease later prices.
- Firmer gas inputs: Continues to impact generation costs and therefore electricity pricing.
📈 6–Month Energy Market Trends
⚠️ While gas stabilised, electricity saw renewed volatility — particularly in late July highs.
Historic power prices above £90/MWh appear to be short-lived for now.
💡 What This Means for Your Business
| Time Until Contract Ends | Fixed Contract Advice |
|---|---|
| 0–3 Months | ✅ Fix now — gas remains firm, and lower electricity levels are not guaranteed to last. |
| 3–6 Months | 👀 Monitor closely — if electricity dips further, there may be an opportunity to fix both fuels smartly. |
| 6–12 Months | 🔍 Prepare benchmarking strategies — suppliers are watching winter trends closely. |
| 12+ Months | 🧭 No urgency – but build a plan for your renewal quarter and subscribe to alerts. |
📅 What to Watch Next Week
- 📊 UK and EU gas storage developments and balance of LNG deliveries.
- 🔌 Wind generation and temperature forecast impacts on daily power volatility.
- 📈 Forward contracts as we approach Q4 contract shaping.
🔭 Next Steps
Ready to Lock in Better Rates or Stay Ahead of the Market?
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🧭 Final Thoughts
It’s still a mixed bag — gas showing strength, power showing weakness.
💬 Our advice:
- If you're inside 3 months, get quotes now — gas is rising.
- If you're later into winter, monitor weekly — electricity could still offer dips.
- Longer-term? Use this window to benchmark risk-free, especially before Q4 demand hits.
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