July 2025 UK Energy Market Trends: Gas, Power & Oil
Gas Holds Steady, Power Costs Rise – Winter Contracts Now More Expensive
🔍 Key Takeaways for Businesses
- Power prices dipped mid-month, offering a short-lived chance to fix below £65/MWh.
- Gas remained stable, averaging 81.06p/th – only slightly higher than June.
- 📈 Forward contracts for Winter 2025 and Q1 2026 are now trending upwards.
- ❄️ Those with renewals in winter should act early to avoid higher pricing later.
📊 July at a Glance: Average Prices vs. Previous Months
| Month | Avg Gas (p/th) | Avg Elec (£/MWh) |
|---|---|---|
| May | 82.60 | 77.78 |
| June | 86.61 | 71.43 |
| July | 81.06 | 81.44 |
🔎 Market Movement Summary:
- 🔵 Gas: Down 6.4% from June, returning to May levels — a sign of ongoing summer stability.
- ⚡ Power: Up 14% from June — driven by volatility in the first half, but part of a longer-term upward trend now seen across forward contracts.
📆 Week-by-Week: What Happened in July?
| Week | Avg Gas (p/th) | Avg Elec (£/MWh) | Comment |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4–8 July | 81.06 p/th | 70.57 | 📉 Power hit its lowest point on 4th July (£61.92) |
| 11–15 July | 82.98 | 78.05 | ↗️ Power began to rise, gas climbed slightly |
| 18–22 July | 82.27 | 83.99 | ⚡ High power volatility due to low wind |
| 25–29 July | 80.25 | 82.10 | ↔️ Market steadied |
| 31 July | 83.00 | 83.00 | ⬆️ Slight uptick to close the month |
📉 Wholesale Gas and Electricity Price Trends – July 2025
6-Month Price Trend Overview
🔹 Electricity dipped to its lowest level since January on 4th July before rebounding.
🔹 Gas prices remained range-bound between
78–85p/th, suggesting limited short-term risk.
🌍 What’s Driving UK Business Energy Prices?
🛰️ Geopolitical Events
- Ongoing tensions in the Middle East and Ukraine led to minor price reactions, especially in oil and LNG forward sentiment.
- The US–EU trade policy shift mid-month caused speculative jitters in global gas contracts.
🌬️ Weather & Renewables
- Low wind output during the second week of July drove power volatility.
- Later weeks saw more stable generation, helping prices settle.
🛢️ Storage & LNG
- EU gas storage remains above 80% full, ahead of seasonal average.
- LNG deliveries into NW Europe were steady, though some August outages are forecast.
🔍 Forward Market Outlook
| Contract | Change Since June | Comment |
|---|---|---|
| Winter 25 | 🔺 Up ~3.4% | Early upward trend – act sooner if you renew in Q4 |
| Q1 26 | 🔺 Up ~2.1% | Costs creeping up for early 2026 contracts |
| Summer 26 | ↔️ Steady | Still favourable – good long-term fix option |
💡 Is Now a Good Time to Fix My Energy Contract?
| Renewal Window | Advice |
|---|---|
| 0–3 Months | ✅ Fix now. Day-ahead and forward rates are still cheaper than Jan–Apr. |
| 3–6 Months | ⚠️ Get quotes soon. Winter 25 forward contracts are already rising. Waiting could cost more. |
| 6–12 Months | 📊 Monitor monthly. Q1 2026 prices are showing early signs of climbing — request a quote to compare now vs later. |
👉 Want to secure today’s lower rates before winter increases?
Rates are rising again — especially for Winter 25 contracts.
📉 Don’t miss out on cheaper power and steady gas rates.
📉 12-Month Market Context
🗓️ The cheapest electricity price of the month was £61.92 on 4th July
📉 Gas remains below early 2025 levels but is showing signs of stabilisation.
🔮 Looking Ahead to August
- ☀️ Warm, calm weather forecast – could limit wind generation.
- 🛢️ LNG outage concerns in August may support gas prices.
- 📅 Forward prices for Winter 25 will be closely watched — early movers may win.
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💬 Final Thoughts
July gave businesses a solid opportunity to fix electricity at a seasonal low.
While gas has stabilised,
forward contracts are slowly rising again.
If your contract ends before next spring, we recommend reviewing your options now — while summer pricing still holds.
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