Week 4 of the Iran conflict. The week the market stopped reacting to headlines. Trump's 48-hour ultimatum spiked gas to 159p — then it sold off. Four straight days lower before a Friday bounce. Gas down 10% on the week. First amber signal since the conflict began. 10 tankers through Hormuz. Trump delays strikes 10 days. Full conflict analysis →
The Week the Market Stopped Reacting to Headlines — Gas Down 10%, First Amber Signal
Trump's 48-hour ultimatum spiked gas to 159p on Monday. By Thursday it was at 132p. Friday bounced 5% on Houthi strikes and $116 oil — but still closed 10% below last week. The first amber gas signal since the conflict began. 10 tankers through Hormuz. Trump delays strikes 10 days. The market is starting to absorb geopolitical risk as permanent rather than reacting to every headline.
💡 This was the week the market's relationship with the conflict changed. Monday's 48-hour ultimatum spiked gas to 159p — and by Thursday it was at 132p. The market sold off despite the geopolitical news getting worse, not better. Four down days, first amber signal, near-term gas negative on the week for the first time. Then Friday bounced on Houthi strikes and $116 oil. The pattern: opening higher on headlines, settling lower. The market is absorbing the structural damage as permanent and starting to price it as a baseline, not an escalation risk.
📊 This Week vs Last Week
The biggest weekly fall since the conflict began. Gas touched 132p mid-week before Friday's bounce took it back to 138p. The week opened at 148p with a spike to 159p on Trump's ultimatum — an extraordinary 27p range in five days. Despite the sell-off, gas is still up 88% and power up 52% over 30 days. This was a correction from extreme levels, not a return to normal.
📈 How Prices Moved — 30-Day View
Sum-26 gas and power forwards — the spike, the sell-off, and Friday's bounce
What Happened This Week
The week began with Trump issuing a 48-hour ultimatum: reopen the Strait of Hormuz or face strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure. Gas spiked over 6% on the open — NBP hit 158.80p, TTF surged to €62.90. But the market sold off through the session, with Sum-26 settling at 148.24p, down 2.7% from Friday. The intraday reversal set the tone for the week: headlines spiked prices, then reality pulled them back. The EU cut gas storage refill targets to 80% — a significant admission about supply availability. QatarEnergy was expected to formally extend its force majeure on Ras Laffan.
Tuesday brought the first real de-escalation signal. Trump delayed his deadline, citing progress in peace talks. Gas fell 2.8% to 141.43p. Brent slipped below $100 for the first time since the recent spike. Spot power collapsed 40% on strong wind. Wednesday accelerated the sell-off: Sum-26 dropped another 4.7% to 134.84p — the first amber gas signal since the conflict began. The forward curve split in two: near-term contracts falling on de-escalation, longer-dated holding as the market recognised the structural damage wasn't going away.
Thursday saw a fourth consecutive decline but the pace slowed (2.3% vs 4.7% the day before). Sum-26 touched 131.76p — down 14% from Monday's intraday high. Power briefly fell below £100 for the first time since early March. Norwegian flows improved to 335 mcm/day. Oil started firming as ceasefire optimism faded.
Then Friday reversed. Gas bounced 5.1% to 137.77p on weekend escalation — Houthi missile strikes on Israel, renewed Hormuz fears, Brent surging above $116. Trump delayed his strikes for another 10 days. Iran allowed 10 tankers through Hormuz as a diplomatic gesture. Chevron's Wheatstone LNG facility in Australia was disrupted by Tropical Cyclone Narelle. The bounce recovered some of the week's losses but Sum-26 still closed 9.6% below last Friday — the biggest weekly fall since Operation Epic Fury began.
Key Days
Reopen Hormuz or face strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure. Gas spiked 6%+ on the open then sold off through the day. The intraday reversal set the week's tone. EU cut storage targets to 80%. QatarEnergy extended force majeure expected.
First concrete de-escalation signal in weeks. Trump delayed his 48-hour deadline citing progress in peace talks. Brent slipped below $100 for the first time since the spike. Summer-winter spread narrowing. Markets unwinding geopolitical risk premium.
First amber gas signal since the conflict began. Forward curve split: near-term falling, longer-dated holding. Spot power collapsed on renewable generation holding up. Oil volatile with mixed messaging from both sides.
Pace of decline slowing (2.3% vs 4.7% yesterday). Sum-26 at 131.76p — down 14% from Monday's high. Norwegian flows improving to 335 mcm/day. Oil firming as ceasefire optimism fades. System tighter at 2 mcm long.
Weekend escalation reversed the sell-off. Houthi missile strikes on Israel. Brent surged above $116. But also diplomatic signals: Trump delayed strikes 10 more days, Iran allowed 10 tankers through Hormuz. Wheatstone LNG disrupted by Tropical Cyclone Narelle. Despite the bounce, Sum-26 still closed 9.6% below last Friday.
📈 Where the Forward Curve Sits
Gas forward prices at Friday's close — showing the shape of the curve out to 2029
The curve fell across the board this week — every contract negative. Cal-27 at 110.74p is 20% below near-term rates but still up 63% over 30 days. Cal-28 at 79.01p is the only contract that's starting to look more normalised, though still up 33% monthly. The sell-off this week was broad-based — not just near-term profit-taking — suggesting the market is genuinely reassessing some of the risk premium.
What This Means for Your Contract
Best week for prices in a month. Gas down 10% from last week's peaks. This could be a window to lock in below the highs — but it may not last. Friday's bounce on Houthi strikes shows how quickly the direction can reverse. The structural damage (Ras Laffan, Kharg, Hormuz) hasn't changed. If your contract is ending in the next few months, getting quotes while rates are below last week's levels is worth considering.
The whole curve sold off this week — even winter contracts down 6%. Get a benchmark quote while the sell-off is fresh. Win-26 at 141.29p is still up 81% in 30 days but this is the first meaningful pullback. 10 tankers through Hormuz is a gesture, not a reopening. Knowing where you stand now means you can act quickly if this dip deepens or reverses.
Cal-27 at 110.74p fell 5% this week — the first meaningful correction. Still up 63% in 30 days but now 20% below near-term rates. If you were planning to wait for 2027 rates to settle, this week's sell-off is the first sign of easing. But Friday's bounce shows how fragile the direction is. Worth monitoring closely.
👀 What to Watch Next Week
Houthi strikes, $116 oil, and Friday's bounce set the stage for a volatile start to Week 5. Trump has delayed strikes for 10 days — that clock is ticking. 10 tankers through Hormuz is a diplomatic gesture but the strait remains physically constrained (mines, no routine shipping). Wheatstone LNG disrupted in Australia, adding to already tight global supply. Belgium taking 2GW nuclear offline. Wind dropping sharply across Europe. Below-average temperatures boosting demand.
The structural damage remains: Ras Laffan 17% offline for years, Kharg demolished, Hormuz mined. This week's sell-off was a correction from extreme levels — not a fundamental shift. Any breakdown in peace talks or fresh escalation could reverse the entire move. The market is telling us: the geopolitical risk is becoming permanent, not temporary. We publish daily market reports tracking all of this.
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